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All Journal Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan Business Management Journal Program Studi Manajemen
Abdul Khaliq
Universitas Andalas
Humanities Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Social Sciences

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Journal : Business Management Journal Program Studi Manajemen

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Efek Kebijakan Moneter Terhadap Return Harga Emas Di Indonesia Abdul Khaliq
Business Management Journal Vol 14, No 1 (2018): Business Management Journal
Publisher : Universitas Bunda Mulia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (795.236 KB) | DOI: 10.30813/bmj.v14i1.1121

Abstract

This studyobserves the short-run and long-run relationship between monetary policies andgold price return movements in Indonesia. Using monthly data over the period 1997M09-2017M10,the empirical findings are carried out by utilizing error correction model (ECM)derived from single quadratic cost function to provide evidence in favor of relationship between nominal effective exchange rate, interest rate, and money supplyand gold price return movements.The empirical evidence suggests that the ECM estimates well characterize how the nominal effective exchange rate relates to the gold price return movements, both in the long-run and short-run. Moreover, money supply and interest rate only have negative and statistically significant effects on price gold return movements in the long run. These results imply that observing nominal effective exchange rate can help predict gold price return movements in Indonesia, which would significantly help monetary authorities in optimizing monetary policy.Keywords    : Gold Price Return, Monetary Policies, Error Correction Model (ECM)
MEKANISME TRANSMISI GONCANGAN HARGA MINYAK DAN HARGA PANGAN DUNIA TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN MAKRO INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE (SVAR) Abdul Khaliq
Business Management Journal Vol 11, No 2 (2015): Business Management Journal
Publisher : Universitas Bunda Mulia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1414.252 KB) | DOI: 10.30813/bmj.v11i2.625

Abstract

This study examines the transmission channels of oil and food price shocks to selected Indonesian macroeconomic variables including Indonesia industrial production index, world interest rate, inflation, domestic interest rate, real effective exchange rate, and Jakarta Composite Index using monthly data over the period 2001M01-2013M08. An empirical analysis is carried out by utilizing structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) framework. Impulse response functions (IRFs) and forecast variance decompositions (FEVDs) are employed to track the impact of oil and food price shock to Indonesian economy. The empirical findings of IRFs suggest that oil price shock negatively affects industrial production, depreciates real effective exchange rate, increases inflation and interest rate, and negatively affects aset price. However, following food price shocks, industrial production increases, depreciates real effective exchange rate, increase stock return. Moreover, inflation and interest rate respond positively following food price shocks. The FEVDs results clearly reveals that the variation in industrial production growth, inflation, interest rate, real effective exchange rate, and aset price due to oil price shock is relatively larger than the food price shocks. This implies that oil price is most important source of disturbances in Indonesian macroeconomy. As a whole, this study recommend that world oil and food price should be considered for policy analysis and forecasting an Indonesian macroeconomy.Key Words : Oil and food price shocks, SVAR, IRFs, FEVDs, Indonesia
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