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Journal : Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science (UJMC)

SOLUSI POSITIF MODEL SIR Awawin Mustana Rohmah
Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science (UJMC) Vol 3 No 1 (2017): Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science
Publisher : Mathematics Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Unisda Lamongan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (353.881 KB) | DOI: 10.52166/ujmc.v3i1.460

Abstract

Model that describes the epidemic spread of disease can spread in this area, one of which can be formed in the mathematical model of endemic SIR (susceptible, infected, and recovery). Based on the model, we can analysis existence and uniqueness, it shows that the system has solution and unique. Furthermore SIR indicated that the model has a positive solution. The final results obtained from this study is SIR model of having a uniqueand solution, as well as solutions that model is positive.
Analisis Jumlah Pengunjung dan Jumlah Wisata Terhadap PAD Kabupaten Lamongan Haykal Abidin; Awawin Mustana Rohmah
Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science (UJMC) Vol 6 No 01 (2020): Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer science
Publisher : Mathematics Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Unisda Lamongan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52166/ujmc.v6i01.2385

Abstract

Lamongan Regency is one of the regencies in East Java which is quite potential to support economic needs. One of the potentials in Lamongan is the entertainment and recreation sector, in this case tourism. Tourism is one of the sectors that has experienced an increase in investment so that it is able to increase economic activity and have an impact on Regional Original Income (PAD). To determine the effect of the amount of tourism on PAD in Lamongan Regency, multiple linear regression analysis and determination coefficient analysis were carried out. The results of this study indicate that the number of tourists greatly influences the PAD in Lamongan Regency and has increased.
Penerapan Double Exponential Smoothing Holt dan ARIMA pada Jumlah Kebutuhan Gabah UD Lancar Ericha Dwi Ayu Prihastini; Novita Eka Chandra; Awawin Mustana Rohmah
Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science (UJMC) Vol 7 No 2 (2021): Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer science
Publisher : Mathematics Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Unisda Lamongan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52166/ujmc.v7i2.2761

Abstract

Abstract. Since come the rice thresher (combi) machine effective than the manual process, the rice milling industries such us UD Lancar, only receiving the grain which produced from it so the supplay of rice is decreasing so resulting in the risk of loss for themselves. The forecasting activity in here used for to assist UD Lancar in estimating the demand for rice in the next period, so can anticipate looking for other grain supplier for to fulfill the demand of market. The data will be analyzed using the Double Exponential Smoothing Holt and ARIMA method. The result of the data processing is show the Double exponential smoothing holt method has MSE error value of 413.445.841,75,while in the ARIMA (2,1,1) method has MSE value was 64.826.353,94404. The Arima (2,1,1) method is better than the double exponential smoothing Holt method because it has a smaller MSE value, so it can be used in the forecasting. Keywords: Forecasting, Double Exponential Smoothing Holt, ARIMA. Abstrak. Sejak adanya mesin perontok padi (combi) yang memiliki tingkat efektifitas lebih baik dibandingkan proses manual, para pemilik industri penggilingan padi seperti UD Lancar kini hanya menerima gabah hasil proses mesin combi yang mengakibatkan persediaan beras mengalami penurunan sehingga dapat mengakibatkan permintaan konsumen tidak terpenuhi dan berujung pada resiko kerugian. Kegiatan peramalan ini bertujuan untuk memperkirakan permintaan beras UD Lancar pada periode selanjutnya, sehingga UD Lancar dapat mengantisipasi dengan cara mencari pemasok gabah lain untuk memenuhi permintaan pasar. Analisis data menggunakan metode Double Exponential Smoothing Holt dan ARIMA. Berdasarkan hasil analisis, pada metode Double Exponential Smoothing Holt memiliki nilai kesalahan MSE sebesar 413.445.841,75, sedangkan metode ARIMA (2,1,1) memiliki nilai kesalahan MSE sebesar 64.826.353,94404. Metode ARIMA (2,1,1) memiliki nilai kesalahan MSE lebih kecil dibandingkan metode Double Exponential Smoothing Holt, sehingga dapat digunakan dalam proses peramalan. Kata Kunci: Peramalan, Double Exponential Smoothing Holt, ARIMA.
Model Kontrol Optimal SIR Pada Penyakit Campak Awawin Mustana Rohmah; Siti Alfiatur Rohmaniah; Rifky Ardhana Kisno Saputra
UJMC (Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science) Vol 8 No 1 (2022): Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer science
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Sciences Unisda Lamongan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52166/ujmc.v8i1.3226

Abstract

The SIR model is one of the epidemic models to describe the spread of infectious diseases with healing and without immunity to these infections. Environmental changes can affect changes in disease patterns that can cause endemic. One of the diseases that cause endemic is Measles (Measles). Therefore, it is necessary to take preventive measures to reduce the rate of spread of the disease, the most effective measure to prevent the spread of the disease is vaccination. Measles transmission prevention events that occur in a population can be modeled in a mathematical form, one of which is the SIR model. The SIR model is divided into four subpopulations, namely the susceptible population or a subpopulation of susceptible individuals to the disease, the infected subpopulation or a subpopulation of infected individuals and can transmit the disease and the recovary subpopulation or individual subpopulation recovering from the disease. Vaccination in this case is the addition of controls to the SIR model, where before being controlled, Measles was only treated normally without vaccines, so that the disease is still common in the community. Giving the right vaccine will reduce the number of infected subpopulations, so that the recovery subpopulation will increase. In this study, the SIR model was developed with the addition of controls. The control in this model is a vaccination given to infected subpopulations, so that the recovery subpopulation has increased, because the number of infected subpopulations has decreased. Abstrak Model SIR merupakan salah satu model epidemik untuk menggambarkan penyebaran penyakit infeksi dengan adanya penyembuhan dan tanpa adanya kekebalan terhadap infeksi tersebut. Perubahan lingkungan hidup dapat mempengaruhi perubahan pola penyakit yang dapat menimbulkan endemik. Salah satu penyakit yang menyebabkan endemi yaitu penyakit Campak (Measles). Oleh karena itu perlu adanya tindakan pencegahan untuk mengurangi laju penyebaran penyakit tersebut, tindakan yang dinilai paling efektif untuk mencegah penyebaran penyakit adalah dengan cara vaksinasi. Kejadian pencegahan penularan penyakit Campak yang terjadi pada suatu populasi dapat dimodelkan ke dalam bentuk matematis, salah satunya adalah model SIR. Model SIR dibagi menjadi empat subpopulasi yaitu populasi susceptible atau subpopulasi individu rentan terhadap penyakit, subpopulasi infected atau subpopulasi individu terinfeksi serta dapat menularkan penyakit dan subpopulasi recovary atau subpopulasi individu sembuh dari penyakit. Vaksinasi dalam hal ini adalah penambahan kontrol pada model SIR, dimana sebelum dikontrol, penyakit Campak hanya diobati biasa tanpa pemberian vaksin, sehingga penyakit tersebut masih banyak dijumpai di masyarakat. Pemberian vaksin yang tepat, akan menurunkan jumlah subpopulasi terinfeksi, sehingga subpopulasi recovery akan mengalami kenaikan. Pada penelitian ini mengembangkan model SIR dengan penambahan kontrol. Kontrol pada model tersebut merupakan vaksinasi yang diberikan kepada subpopulasi infected, sehingga subpopulasi recovery mengalami kenaikan, kerena jumlah subpopulasi infected menurun.
Analisis Multiple Alignment Pada Penyebaran Epidemi Sars Cov E.G 5.1 Menggunakan Metode Neighbor - Joining Arta MS, Carly Marshanda; Amiroch, Siti; Rohmah, Awawin Mustana
UJMC (Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science) Vol 9 No 2 (2023): Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer science
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Sciences Unisda Lamongan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52166/ujmc.v9i2.6296

Abstract

SARS CoV-2 merupakan suatu virus yang masih menjadi topik hangat di media dan sangat menarik untuk dikaji. Apalagi SARS CoV-2 semakin bermutasi dari waktu ke waktu dan memunculkan varian jenis baru. Akhir-akhir ini dunia kembali dihebohkan dengan munculnya varian SARS CoV-2 jenis baru yang bernama varian E.G 5.1 atau biasa disebut Eris. Di Indonesia, varian E.G 5.1 pertama kali dilaporkan di Provinsi Jakarta pada 09/03/2023. Berdasarkan hal tersebut, penulis ingin mengetahui proses penyebaran Epidemi SARS CoV E.G 5.1 yang terjadi di Indonesia dengan analisis Multiple Alignment. Analisis ini memiliki beberapa tahap antara lain, melakukan analisis sistem jaringan topologi, sistem jaringan daerah mutasi dan sistem jaringan mode mutasi, sehingga diperoleh pohon filogenetik menggunakan algoritma Neighbor-Joining yang digunakan untuk menentukan awal mula penyebaran virus. Data yang digunakan adalah data 92 sekuen DNA yang diperoleh melalui GISAID. Hasil dari analisis tersebut diperoleh awal mula penyebaran SARS CoV E.G 5.1 di Indonesia yang secara singkat berawal dari Jakarta 09/03/2023, kemudian menyebar ke Bogor 20/04/23, Medan 11/05/23, Surabaya 03/07/23, Bandung 24/10/23, Riau 07/12/23, dan terakhir menyebar di Provinsi Bali (Denpasar) pada tanggal 10/12/23 dan 11/12/23.
Masalah Penugasan Pada Teknisi Untuk Perbaikan Mesin Produksi Dalam Skenario Ketidakpastian Mohammad Syaiful Pradana; Siti Alfiatur Rohmaniah; Awawin Mustana Rohmah
UJMC (Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science) Vol 11 No 1 (2025): Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Sciences and Technology Unisda Lamongan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52166/ujmc.v11i1.10571

Abstract

The problem of technician assignment in terms of production machine repair is the main focus of this research to help smooth the production process, maintain the availability and performance of the machine where the repair process depends on the efficiency of the technician team. Unexpected machine damage, the level of complexity of machine repair, as well as different competencies and availability of technicians are part of the uncertainty conditions in machine repair. This research focuses on the uncertainty scenario (Sk1, Sk2, Sk3) of technician assignment for production machine repair with a case study involving 3 machines (M1, M2, M3) and 4 technicians (T1, T2, T3, T4). The method used adapts the Hurwicz and Bayes rules (H+B) where this method is designed for one-time decisions and pure strategies with the aim of minimizing the total machine repair time. The results of the application of the optimal solution method found are assignments (T1 - M1) 6.67 hours, (T2 - M2) 8.46 hours, and (T4 - M3) 7.86 hours and resulting in a minimum total repair time of 22.99 hours. Further research could be conducted to extend the model to consider different repair costs and technician capabilities as well as other approaches to uncertainty such as Fuzzy Logic or Stochastic Programming.
Analisis dan Simulasi Model Matematika SIRC pada Dinamika Penyakit Diabetes Mellitus dengan Komplikasi Awawin Mustana Rohmah; Alvina Wiliyanti; Mohammad Syaiful Pradana; Siti Alfiatur Rohmaniah; Rifky Ardhana Kisno Saputra
UJMC (Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science) Vol 11 No 2 (2025): Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Sciences and Technology Unisda Lamongan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52166/ujmc.v11i2.12276

Abstract

Diabetes is a global health problem with a continuously increasing prevalence, adversely affecting quality of life and increasing the risk of health complications. This study applies the SIRC mathematical model to describe the temporal dynamics of diabetes, with model parameters calibrated using recent data. System stability is analyzed using the Jacobian method to determine equilibrium points and system behavior. The results indicate a high incidence of disease and complications, while the recovery rate remains relatively low. The basic reproduction number (R₀) of 1.6483 suggests that the disease still has the potential to spread. Furthermore, the equilibrium point E₁ is found to be unstable due to the presence of positive eigenvalues. This study provides important insights into diabetes dynamics that may support effective health management strategies.