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All Journal Jurnal Simantec Jurnal Ilmiah Kursor ComTech: Computer, Mathematics and Engineering Applications JPAP (Jurnal Praktisi Administrasi Pendidikan) International Journal of Science, Engineering and Information Technology
Achmad Jauhari
University Of Trunojoyo Madura
Humanities Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Social Sciences

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Prediction Model for Tourism Object Ticket Determination in Bangkalan, Madura, Indonesia Fifin Ayu Mufarroha; Akhmad Tajuddin Tholaby; Devie Rosa Anamisa; Achmad Jauhari
ComTech: Computer, Mathematics and Engineering Applications Vol. 14 No. 2 (2023): ComTech
Publisher : Bina Nusantara University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21512/comtech.v14i2.7992

Abstract

One of the regencies in Madura, namely Bangkalan, with its local wisdom and beautiful landscapes has the potential to become a tourism center. However, there may be a decrease in the number of visits caused by some factors. The research used the time series method to build a prediction model for tourist attraction entrance tickets. The model development aimed to estimate the number of tourist attraction visits in the future. The right model was needed to get the best prediction results. Least square, Holt-Winter, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), and Rolling were chosen as the models. Data collection related to the number of tourist objects was carried out directly at the Tourism Office to obtain valid data. Using data on visitors to tourist attractions in Bangkalan Regency from 2015 to 2019, the results of measuring errors using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) are obtained. The error measurement results show that the Holt-Winter model has the lowest error rate of 5% and RMSE of 307,1198. Based on these calculations, the Holt-Winter model is the best model for determining tourist attraction entrance tickets. The ranking of the error measurement results from the highest to the lowest are Holt-Winter, Rolling, SARIMA, and Least Square methods.
Co-Authors Ahmad Try Bayu Al Haq Akhmad Tajuddin Tholaby Aris Eko Priyanto Devie Rosa Anamisa Durio Z ela nur azizah Fifin Ayu Mufaroha Fifin Ayu Mufarroha Firdaus Solihin Ika Oktavia Suzanti Khozaimi, Ach. Linawati Linawati Mochammad Kautsar Sophan Moh. Yusril Ihza Maulana Muhammad Amfahtori Wijarnoko Pramudita, Yoga Dwitya Rahmad Hidayat Rika Yunitarini selia resita Sukardi Sukardi Wildan Wildan Yeni Kustiyahningsih