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The impact of inflation, exports, and corruption perception on the movement of the Chinese Yuan Exchange Rate in selected ASEAN countries in the short and long run Muhammad Ahnaf Fauzan; Enos Adryansyah Gumilang; Dijan Rahajuni; Rinny Apriliany Zakaria
Priviet Social Sciences Journal Vol. 6 No. 5 (2026): May 2026
Publisher : Privietlab

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55942/pssj.v6i5.1244

Abstract

This study examines how inflation, exports, and corruption perception influence the movement of Chinese Yuan (CNY) against the currencies of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam. Using a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag model with annual data from 2013 to 2023, the analysis captures both the short-term adjustments and the long-term equilibrium relationships among the variables. The results show that export performance plays the most decisive role in the short term. Stronger export activity is associated with an appreciation of the Yuan against ASEAN currencies, reflecting the increasingly interconnected trade structure between China and the region. Inflation and corruption perceptions do not have significant short-term effects. Their influence tends to appear gradually through channels such as investor confidence, institutional stability, and the overall macroeconomic environment of the country. Although these variables do not show immediate statistical significance, the cointegration tests confirm the presence of a stable long-run relationship between the exchange rate and explanatory variables. Taken together, the findings highlight that trade remains the primary force shaping short-term exchange rate behavior in ASEAN. Simultaneously, institutional quality and price stability continue to serve as important foundations for maintaining long-run external resilience. These results emphasize the need for stronger economic structures and credible governance so that ASEAN currencies are better positioned to withstand external pressures arising from China’s expanding role in regional economic activity.
Peran Afiliasi TikTok terhadap Ekonomi Digital Indonesia: Studi Empiris Generasi Z Nasikhatun Nafingah; Dinta Cahya Fatimah; Dijan Rahajuni; Oki Anggraeni
RIGGS: Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Business Vol. 5 No. 2 (2026): Mei-Juli
Publisher : Prodi Bisnis Digital Universitas Pahlawan Tuanku Tambusai

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31004/riggs.v5i2.10147

Abstract

Pesatnya perkembangan social commerce, khususnya TikTok Shop telah membuka peluang ekonomi baru melalui program afiliasi digital bagi Generasi Z. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis peran program afiliasi TikTok dalam mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi digital Indonesia dengan fokus studi pada Generasi Z di Purwokerto. Kajian ini mengintegrasikan berbagai sumber literatur ilmiah dan data resmi untuk mengidentifikasi peran afiliasi tiktok terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi digital Indonesia dengan studi empiris pada generasi z. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif eksploratif dengan teknik wawancara kepada narasumber, yaitu beberapa orang yang aktif menjadi affiliate tiktok, dan/dengan mengumpulkan data langsung dari narasumber untuk menggali pengalaman nyata, pendapat, dan fenomena. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa program tiktok affiliate memberikan peluang ekonomi bagi para generasi z. Narasumber mengungkapkan bahwa dengan adanya tiktok affiliate, mereka mampu mendapatkan sumber penghasilan tambahan. Selain penghasilan tambahan, aktivitas afiliasi juga membantu generasi z dalam meingkatkan keterampilan membuat konten kreatif, komunikasi digital, serta strategi pemasaran melalui media sosial. Kemudahan akses platform tiktok mampu mendorong minat para generasi muda, khususnya generasi z untuk terlibat dalam aktivitas ekonomi digital tersebut. Melalui kegiatan pemasaran berbasis digital pada platform seperti TikTok Affiliate, Generasi Z berkesempatan memperoleh penghasilan mandiri yang berkontribusi pada penguatan ekonomi. Hasil penelitian diharapkan memberikan gambaran komprehensif mengenai kontribusi nyata aktivitas afiliasi digital terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi digital, baik di tingkat lokal maupun nasional. Kesimpulannya, program afiliasi bukan sekedar tren media sosial, melainkan instrumen strategis pemberdayaan ekonomi bagi generasi muda di era digital.
Dampak Kebijakan Local Currency Settlement terhadap Perdagangan Internasional: Studi Kasus Indonesia-Jepang Davin Athallariq Ghifari; Akbar Maulana Syarif; Rinny Apriliani Zakaria; Dijan Rahajuni
Sosio e-Kons Vol 17, No 2 (2025): Sosio e-Kons
Publisher : Universitas Indraprasta PGRI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30998/sosioekons.v17i1.25957

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of the Local Currency Settlement (LCS) policy on international trade between Indonesia and Japan. LCS is a policy that enables both countries to conduct trade transactions using their local currencies, namely the Rupiah and Yen, with the aim of reducing dependence on the US dollar. This research employs a quantitative approach utilizing secondary data from 2000 to 2023. A multiple linear regression method is used to assess the influence of exchange rates, economic growth, and the LCS policy on the Indonesia-Japan trade balance. The findings indicate that the implementation of LCS has the potential to improve the trade balance, although the results are not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Nevertheless, positive indications are observed in terms of reduced transaction costs and increased bilateral trade volume. This research supports the theory of dedollarization and the diversification of the international monetary system as strategies to mitigate the risks associated with dollar volatility and to strengthen domestic economic stability in both Indonesia and Japan.
Analisis Keterkaitan Keterbukaan Perdagangan terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di 4 Negara Berkembang ASEAN Tri Yuli Lestari; Hanif Alfi Syahri; Rinny Apriliany Zakaria; Dijan Rahajuni
Sosio e-Kons Vol 17, No 1 (2025): Sosio e-Kons
Publisher : Universitas Indraprasta PGRI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30998/sosioekons.v17i1.25956

Abstract

Trade openness is one of the key components in driving economic growth. During the period of 1981-2023, there were differences in the level of trade openness in four ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand). Additionally, GDP growth, exchange rate fluctuations, rising inflation, and inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) are expected to influence economic growth in these countries. This study aims to analyze the factors affecting economic growth in these countries. The variables used in this research include economic growth, trade openness, FDI, exchange rate, and inflation. The econometric analysis model used is the Error Correction Model (ECM). The results of the study show an Error Correction Term (ECT) coefficient of -0.6268, which is significant at the ? = 5% level, indicating that the model is valid. The conclusions of this study are: (1) In the short term, trade openness and FDI have a significant positive influence, while exchange rate and inflation have a significant negative influence on economic growth; (2) In the long term, inflation and exchange rate have a negative influence, while trade openness and FDI do not have a significant influence on economic growth.
Pengaruh Ekspor Migas Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Asia Tenggara Maritza Arumsari; Rinny Apriliany Zakaria; Dijan Rahajuni
Sosio e-Kons Vol 17, No 1 (2025): Sosio e-Kons
Publisher : Universitas Indraprasta PGRI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30998/sosioekons.v17i1.25954

Abstract

Crude oil exports are still a milestone in Southeast Asian countries in driving trade balance surpluses and stimulating economic growth. However, the performance may differ depending on macroeconomic factors. Therefore, this study aims to examine how crude oil exports affect economic growth in Southeast Asian countries using Error Correction Model (ECM) analysis. The results show that crude oil exports positively affect economic growth in Southeast Asian countries in the short and long term. Thus, government policy focuses on encouraging domestic crude oil production for export, while controlling several macroeconomic variables, such as inflation and investment.