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THE DOWNSIDE RISK OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO SELECTION PROBLEM Anton Abdulbasah kamil et al.
Proceedings of ICMSA Vol 1, No 1 (2005): ICMSA 2005
Publisher : Proceedings of ICMSA

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Abstract

One of the basic problems of applied finance is the optimal selection ofstocks, with the aim of maximizing future returns and minimizing therisk using a specified risk aversion factor. Variance is used as the riskmeasure in classical Markowitz model, thus resulting in a quadraticprograrnming. As an altemative, mean absolute deviation was proposedas a risk measure to replace the original risk measure, variance. Thisproblem is a straight-forward extension of the classic Markowitz mean-varianceapproach and the optimal portfolio problem can be formulatedas a linear programming problem. Taking the downside risk as the riskleads to different optimal portfolio. The effect of using only downsiderisk on optimal portfolio is analyzed in this paper by taking the meanabsolute negative deviation as the risk measure. This method isapplied to the opimal selection of stocks listed in Bursa Malaysia andthe return of the optimal portfolio is compared to the classicalMarkowitz model and mean absolute deviation model. The result showthat the optimal portfolios using downside risk measure outperforms theother two models.Keywords;-Portfolio optimizatiorr, Linear Programming, Downside risk.
BARGAINING GAME AND EQUITY SHARING SYSTEM IN EMPLOYMENT PROBLEM Anton Abdulbasah Kamil
Proceedings of ICMSA Vol 1, No 1 (2005): ICMSA 2005
Publisher : Proceedings of ICMSA

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Abstract

Profit sharing has been proposed as a solution to underemploymentresulting from collective bargaining, but the empirical results areambiguous and the theoretical basis for this claim is weak. This papershows equity sharing can, in theory, solve the principle shortcomings ofprofit sharing. First, equity sharing can resolve both underemployment andover employment. Second, the results do not depend on assuming thatinsiders and the firm are prevented from bargaining over employmentlevel. Third the system does not require government intervention sinceboth sides can benefit from adopting equity sharing.Keywords: Bargaining game, profit sharing model, equity sharing.
ANALISIS KELAYAKAN BISNIS STARTUP CUCI MOBIL DAN MOTOR DI KOTA TANGERANG SELATAN Elsa Wahyu Harliana; Endang Chumaidiyah; Anton Abdulbasah Kamil
Jurnal Mitra Manajemen Vol 3 No 8 (2019): Jurnal Mitra Manajemen Edisi Agustus
Publisher : Kresna Bina Insan Prima

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (490.665 KB) | DOI: 10.52160/ejmm.v3i8.267

Abstract

Bisnis startup cuci mobil dan motor di Kota Tangerang Selatan merupakan usaha dibidang jasa pencucian kendaraan. Ide bisnis timbul karena perkembangan jumlah kendaraan dan minat konsumen. Bisnis ini berbasis offline dan online booking dengan Instagram dan Whastapp. Terdapat dua service yaitu service regular dan layanan kerumah konsumen. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah bisnis layak dijalankan apabila ditinjau dari aspek pasar, teknis, dan finansial. Berdasarkan hasil pengumpulan dan pengolahan data pasar dengan melakukan penyebaran kuesioner, diperoleh persentase untuk cuci mobil service regular, cuci motor service regular, cuci mobil layanan kerumah konsumen dan cuci motor layanan kerumah konsumen. Persentase pasar potensial sebesar 90%,89%,89%,90% dan pasar tersedia sebesar 87%,92%,87%,89%. Pasar sasaran sebesar 1% dari pasar tersedia. Hasil dari perhitungan, diperoleh nilai NPV sebesar Rp. 131.184.773, IRR sebesar 25% dan PBP sebesar 4,38 tahun. Karena IRR lebih besar dari MARR dan NPV lebih besar dari 0, maka bisnis pada penelitian ini layak dijalankan.
Analisis Pengembangan Usaha Serta Perancangan Website Pada Start Up Kue Brownies Di Karawang Dwi Sela Tresnasari; Endang Chumaidiyah; Anton Abdulbasah Kamil
eProceedings of Engineering Vol 6, No 2 (2019): Agustus 2019
Publisher : eProceedings of Engineering

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Abstract

Abstrak Dapur WeeBee Brownies merupakan salah satu usaha startup pembuatan kue browniesskala rumahan di daerah Karawang sejak tahun 2015. Penjualan brownies dari tahun 2017 hingga 2018 mengalami penurunan sehingga Dapur WeeBee Brownies berencana membuka toko online dan membuka cabang baru di daerah Kota. Dengan adanya rencana yang dilakukan, diperlukan analisis kelayakan yang bertujuan untuk mengetahui kelayakan usaha Dapur WeeBee Brownies dengan membuka toko online dan cabang baru yang ditinjau berdasarkan aspek pasar, teknis, dan finansial. Analisis aspek pasar digunakan untuk mengukur permintaan pasar atas pendiriannya cabang baru. Berdasarkan pengolahan data aspek pasar bahwa 81% berminat untuk membeli brownies basah dan 69% berminat untuk membeli brownies kering. Aspek teknis bertujuan mengestimasi kebutuhan dana total berdasarkan investasi dan working capital. Kebutuhan dana untuk membuka toko online dan cabang baru Dapur WeeBee Brownies sebesar Rp 233.368.104. Aspek finansial dilakukan untuk melakukan analisis kelayakan berdasarkan dari nilai NPV, IRR, dan PBP. Berdasarkan pengolahan data NPV, IRR, dan PBP didapatkan bahwa pembukaan toko online dan pembukaan cabang baru Dapur WeeBee Brownies layak. Analisis sensitivitas untuk melihat faktor yang paling berdampak pada usaha Dapur WeeBee Brownies. Hasil analisis sensitivitas menunjukkan bahwa faktor yang paling berdampak yaitu peningkatan biaya tenaga kerja dengan presentase 3% dan sensitiv terhadap biaya tenaga kerja. Selain itu analisis risiko juga digunakan dalam melakukan analisis kelayakan. Hasil analisis risiko dari usaha Dapur WeeBee Brownies dikatakan layak karena nilai NPV rate 17,25% > MARR rate 10,25%. Kata kunci: Analisis Kelayakan, Analisis Sensitivitas, Analisis Risiko, Dapur WeeBee Brownies Abstract Kitchen WeeBee Brownies is one of the business startup making a cake brownies-scale home-based in the Falkirk area since the year 2015. The sale of brownie from 2017 to 2018 has decreased so that the Kitchen WeeBee Brownies are you planning to open an online store and open new branches in areas of the City. With the plan done, the necessary feasibility analysis that aims to determine the feasibility of the Kitchen WeeBee Brownies with open an online store and a new branch that will be reviewed based on the aspects of market, technical, and financial. Aspects of the analysis of the market used to measure the market demand for the establishment of new branches. Based on the data processing aspects of the market that 81% are interested to buy brownies wet and 69% are interested to buy dry brownie. The technical aspect aims at estimating the needs of the total fund based on the investment and working capital. The fund needs to open an online store and a new branch Kitchen WeeBee Brownies Rp 233.368.104. The financial aspect is made to do a feasibility analysis based on NPV, IRR, and PBP. Based on the data processing NPV, IRR, and PBP was found that the opening of the online stores and the opening of a new branch Kitchen WeeBee Brownies worth. A sensitivity analysis to see the factors that most impact on the business of the Kitchen WeeBee Brownies. The results of the sensitivity analysis show that the factors that most impact is increasing labor costs by 3% and sensitive to labor costs. In addition risk analysis is also used in conducting the feasibility analysis. The results of the risk analysis of the business Kitchen WeeBee Brownie feasible because the value of NPV rate 17,25% > MARR rate of 10,25%. Keywords: Feasibility Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, Risk Analysis, Kitchen WeeBee Brownies
Analisis Kelayakan Bisnis Startup Produk Skincare Ebc Pada Cv. Athia Mulia Abadi Ajeng Kirana Kusumawardhani; Endang Chumaidiyah; Anton Abdulbasah Kamil
eProceedings of Engineering Vol 6, No 2 (2019): Agustus 2019
Publisher : eProceedings of Engineering

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Abstrak CV. Athia Mulya Abadi adalah startup bisnis yang bergerak di sektor kecantikan yang menjual produk perawatan kulit dengan merek dagang "EBC". Bisnis ini telah berjalan selama 1 tahun dan ingin mengembangkan bisnisnya secara online. Karena bisnis baru, studi kelayakan bisnis harus dilakukan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah bisnis perawatan kulit EBC layak untuk dijalankan dalam hal aspek pasar, aspek teknis dan aspek keuangan. Analisis aspek pasar digunakan untuk menentukan pasar potensial, pasar yang tersedia dan pasar sasaran. Pengumpulan data pasar menggunakan kuesioner, sehingga persentase pasar potensial adalah 65,84%, pasar tersedia untuk 57,43% dari pasar potensial, dan target pasar adalah 2% dari pasar yang tersedia. Aspek teknis analisis dilakukan untuk melihat pengeluaran dan insentif yang terjadi dalam bisnis perawatan kulit EBC dalam 5 tahun ke depan. Hasil perhitungan aspek keuangan, diperoleh nilai NPV (Net Present Value) sebesar Rp 331.125.492, nilai IRR (Internal Rate of Return) 31,64% dan PBP (Pay Back Periode) 4 tahun. Karena nilai IRR lebih besar dari nilai MARR 11,74% dan nilai NPV lebih besar dari 0, bisnis perawatan kulit EBC dikatakan layak untuk dijalankan. Kata Kunci: Analisis kelayakan, NPV, IRR, PBP, EBC Skincare Abstract CV. Athia Mulya Abadi is a business startup engaged in the beauty sector that sells skincare products under the brand name "EBC". This business has been running for 1 year and wants to grow its business online. Because of a new business, a business feasibility study must be conducted. This study aims to determine whether the EBC skincare business is feasible to run in terms of market aspects, technical aspects and financial aspects. Analysis of market aspects is used to determine potential markets, available markets and target markets. Market data collection uses a questionnaire, so that the potential market percentage is 65.84%, the market is available for 57.43% of the potential market, and the target market is 2% of the available market. Technical aspects of the analysis are carried out to see expenditures and incentives that occur in the EBC skincare business in the next 5 years. The results of the calculation of financial aspects, obtained the value of NPV (Net Present Value) of Rp 331,125,492, the value of IRR (Internal Rate of Return) of 31.64% and PBP (Pay Back Period) 4 years. Because the IRR value is greater than the MARR value of 11.74% and the NPV value is greater than 0, the EBC skincare business is said to be feasible to run. Keywords: Feasibility analysis , NPV, IRR, PBP, EBC Skincare
Analisis Kelayakan Usaha Serta Perancangan Website Pada Pendirian Toko Online Sepatu Amezing Amelia Putri Anisa; Endang Chumadiyah; Anton Abdulbasah Kamil
eProceedings of Engineering Vol 6, No 2 (2019): Agustus 2019
Publisher : eProceedings of Engineering

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Abstrak Amezing merupakan bisnis yang baru akan didirikan dan bergerak dibidang sepatu. Amezing akan dipasarkan secara online melalui sosial media instagram dan juga website. Fenomena belanja online tidak hanya berkembang pesat di dunia, namun juga di kalangan bisnis lokal Indonesia. Melihat peluang tersebut, Amezing tercetus sebagai ide bisnis fesyen berplatform online. Amezing memiliki produk yaitu sepatu flatshoes dan slippers. Amezing menawarkan model sepatu yang mengikuti tren yang ada. Dibuat oleh pengrajin lokal dan menggunakan bahan - bahan yang berkualitas. Dikarenakan bisnis ini baru akan didirikan maka dari itu dilakukan studi kelayakan bisnis untuk mengetahui apakah bisnis ini layak atau tidak untuk dijalankan. Dilihat dari aspek pasar, aspek teknis dan aspek finansial. Analisis aspek pasar didapatkan dari penyebaran kuesioner yang datanya akan digunakan untuk menentukan pasar potensial, pasar tersedia dan pasar sasaran. Selanjutnya melakukan analisis aspek teknis untuk mengetahui pengeluaran dan pemasukan pada usaha Amezing untuk 5 tahun mendatang. Aspek pasar menghitung kelayakan usaha kelayakan toko online sepatu Amezing. Diperoleh bahwa bisnis ini layak dijalankan, hal ini berdasarkan dari beberapa kriteria investasi yaitu IRR, NPV dan PBP. Berdasarkan IRR bisnis ini layak karena nilai IRR (28,10%) lebih dari MARR (10,25%), lalu berdasarkan nilai NPV bisnis ini pun layak dilakukan karena nilai NPV Rp. 120.436.335 lebih dari 0, dan beradasarkan PBP investasi akan kembali pada periode tahun ke 3 bulan ke 4. Maka berdasarkan ketiga kriteria investasi tersebut bisnis toko online sepatu Amezing layak dijalankan. Kata Kunci: Toko Online Sepatu, Analisis Kelayakan, NPV, IRR, PBP Abstract Amezing is a new business to be established and is engaged in shoes. Amezing will be marketed online through social media Instagram and also websites. The phenomenon of online shopping is not only developing rapidly in the world, but also among local Indonesian businesses. Seeing these opportunities, Amezing blaze up as a fashion business idea with an online platform. Amezing has products such as flatshoes and slippers. Amezing offers shoe models that follow the existing trends. Made by local craftsmen and using quality ingredients. Because this business will only be established, a business feasibility study will be conducted to find out whether the business is feasible or not to run. Viewed from the market aspect, technical aspects and financial aspects. An alysis of market aspects is obtained from the distribution of questionnaires whose data will be used to determine potential markets, available markets and target markets. Furthermore, analyzing the technical aspects to determine expenses and income in the Amezing business for the next 5 years. The market aspect calculates the business feasibility of the online shoe store Amezing eligibility. Obtained that this business is feasible to run, this is based on several investment criteria, namely IRR, NPV and PBP. Based on the IRR this business is feasible because the IRR value (28,10%) is more than the MARR (10.25%), then based on the NPV value this business is also feasible because the NPV value of Rp. 120.436.335 more than 0, and based on PBP the investment will return in the 3th year period to 4 month. Then based on the three criteria of investment, the online shoe store business Amezing is feasible. Keywords: Online Shop of Shoes, Feasibility Analysis, NPV, IRR, PBP
Analisis Kelayakan Pengembangan Bisnis Start Up My Fresh Laundry Di Kota Solok Secara Online Dan Offline Nadia Utari; Endang Chumaidiyah; Anton Abdulbasah Kamil
eProceedings of Engineering Vol 6, No 2 (2019): Agustus 2019
Publisher : eProceedings of Engineering

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Abstract

Abstrak Bisnis yang bergerak di bidang jasa di Kota Solok yaitu jasa dalam mencuci pakaian, bedcover, selimut dan boneka yaitu My Fresh Laundry. Pemilik usaha ingin mengembangkan bisnis dengan membuat inovasi dibagian sistem delivery yaitu menggunakn media sosial (Line). Maka dari itu, dilakukan analisis kelayakan pengembangan bisnis My Fresh Laundry di Kota Solok. Penelitian ini dilakukan pada Agustus-juni 2019 dengan teknik pengumpulan data primer (observasi, wawancara, penyebaran kuisioner) dan sekunder (mengkaji teori dan penelitian terdahulu dan website). Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah aspek pasar, aspek teknis dan aspek finansial dengan analisis kelayakan bisnis yaitu Payback Period (PP), Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) dan Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR), Analisis Sensitivitas dan Analisis Risiko. Dalam aspek pasar bisnis My Fresh Laundry memiliki tingkat minat konsumen terhadap sistem delivery menggnakan media sosial (Line) sebesar 80% berdasarkan pasar potensial, pada pasar tersedia tingkat ketersediaan konsumen dalam menggunakan jasa laundry dengan tarif yang telah ditentukan sebesar 76%, dan pada pasar sasaran My Fresh Laundry membidik pasar sasaran sebesar 0,5% sehingga memperoleh demand pada tahun 2020 sebesar 133 orang dengan produksi sebesar 39854 Kg ke semua produk. Pada aspek teknis didukung dengan sarana dan prasarana yang memadai sehingga mampu memenuhi permintaan demand. Dalam aspek finansial, bisnis layak dijalankan dengan modal sendiri dengan payback period selama 3 tahun 7 bulan, Net Present Value (NPV) sebesar Rp 78.927.137, IRR sebesar 29,67%, BCR sebesar 1,235. Dalam analisis risiko total jumlah persentase resiko dari berbagai aspek memiliki total risiko sebesar 11,67%. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan diperoleh total rate sebesar 23,41% dengan IRR sebesar 29,67 % dan NPV sebesar Rp. Rp. 21.081.395 maka dari itu dapat disimpulkan bahwa bisnis layak untuk dijalankan. Kata Kunci – Laundry, Studi Kelayakan Investasi, Analisis Risiko, Analisis Sensitivitas Abstract Business that is engaged in services in the city of Solok, namely services in washing clothes, bed covers, blankets and dolls, namely My Fresh Laundry. Business owners want to develop their business by making innovations in the delivery system, namely using social media (Line). Therefore, an analysis of the feasibility of developing the My Fresh Laundry business in Solok City was carried out. This research was conducted in August-June 2019 with primary data collection techniques (observation, interview, questionnaire distribution) and secondary (reviewing theory and previous research and website). The methods used in this study are market aspects, technical aspects and financial aspects with business feasibility analysis namely Payback Period (PP), Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR), Sensitivity Analysis and Risk Analysis. In the aspect of the business market My Fresh Laundry has a level of consumer interest in the delivery system using social media (Line) of 80% based on potential markets, on the available market the level of availability of consumers in using laundry services with a predetermined rate of 76%, and on target markets My Fresh Laundry targets the target market at 0.5% so that it can get demand in 2020 for 133 people with production of 39854 Kg to all products. On technical aspects supported by adequate facilities and infrastructure so as to be able to meet demand. In the financial aspect, a business is feasible to run with its own capital with a payback period of 3 years 7 months, a Net Present Value (NPV) on Rp. 78,927,137, IRR of 29.67%, BCR of 1,235. In risk analiysis the total number of risk percentages from various aspects has a total 11,67%. Based on the calculation results obtained the total rate of 23,41% with an IRR of 29,67 and NPV of Rp 21.081.395. therefore it can be concluded that business is feasible to run. Keywords - Laundry, Investment Feasibility Study, Risk Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis
Evaluasi Model Bisnis Pada Perusahaan Holmesick.ltd dengan Menggunakan Pendekatan Business Model Canvas Fajar Rizky Fernanda; Farda Hasun; Anton Abdulbasah Kamil
eProceedings of Engineering Vol 6, No 2 (2019): Agustus 2019
Publisher : eProceedings of Engineering

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Abstract

Abstrak Holmesick.Ltd merupakan perusahaan yang bergerak di bidang konveksi khususnya outwear, dengan mengusung konsep sederhana namun tidak ketinggalan zaman. Segmen konsumen yang menjadi sasaran Holmesick.Ltd adalah pelanggan dari kalangan remaja. Pertumbuhan penjualan yang menurun di tahun 2018 menjadi indikasi perlunya dilakukan evaluasi model bisnis agar tetap kompetitif dan dapat bersaing. Salah satu pendekatan yang dapat dilakukan adalah dengan cara menvisualisasikan dan mengevaluasi peta model bisnis secara utuh dengan pendekatan business model canvas (BMC). Pada penelitian ini, langkah awal adalah memetakan model bisnis saat ini dari Holmesick.Ltd. Kemudian membuat customer profile dan melakukan analisis lingkungan bisnis saat ini. Langkah berikutnya adalah melakukan analisis SWOT untuk masingmasing blok dalam kanvas model bisnis guna merumuskan strategi untuk setiap blok. Setelah melakukan analisis SWOT, dilakukan perancangan value proposition baru dilanjutkan dengan melakukan perbaikan di masing-masing blok sehingga menghasilkan model bisnis usulan yang diharapkan dapat meningkatkan daya saing Holmesick.Ltd di industri konveksi. Terdapat beberapa poin penting yang harus digarisbawahi seperti: saluran penjualan, hubungan pelanggan, partnership, aktivitas kunci dan revenue stream Kata Kunci : Evaluasi Model Bisnis, Business Model Canvas, Analisis Lingkungan, Analisis SWOT, outwear Abstract Holmesick.Ltd is a convection company which produces outwears, by carrying out concept of ‘simple but not out of date’. The consumer segment that is targeted by Holmesick.Ltd is teenagers. The number of sales growth that declined in 2018 is an indication of the need for an evaluation of business model to remain competitive. One thing that can be done is to visualize and assess a complete business model map using the business model canvas (BMC). In this study, the initial step is mapping the current business model of Holmesick, .Ltd. The next step is identifying customer profile and conduct an analysis of the current business environment. The next step is to conduct a SWOT analysis for each block in the business model canvas to formulate a strategy for each block. After conducting a SWOT analysis, a new value proposition design is carried out and followed by making improvements in each block so a new business model can be created to increase Holmesick.Ltd's competitiveness in the convection industry. Important points that should be highlighted are: sales channels, customer relations, partnerships, key activities and revenue streams. Keywords: Business Model Evaluation, Model Business Canvas, Environmental Analysis, SWOT Analysis, outwear
The Success Factors of Knitting Small Medium Enterprises: A Case Study on SME Centre Chumaidiyah, Endang; Kamil, Anton Abdulbasah; Amani, Husni
International Journal of Supply Chain Management Vol 9, No 5 (2020): International Journal of Supply Chain Management (IJSCM)
Publisher : ExcelingTech

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59160/ijscm.v9i5.3681

Abstract

SMEs are the largest business group that plays an important role in driving the economy because it involves large numbers of workers. But SMEs have lower productivity compared to large scale businesses. Therefore, The SMEs are needed to improve the competitiveness by identifying critical success factors. This paper aims to identify critical success factors in knitting SMEs by using factor analysis methods. The results obtained show that of the 10 variables identified in the group into 4 factors, namely the main factor (25.6%), supporting factors (20.8%), local competitor factors (12.3%), and global competitor factors (11.7 %). The four factors in accordance with their priorities are the factors that determine the success of an SME or critical success factors with an influence level of 70.4%. The main factors impacted the success of SMEs from internal organizations are marketing, machine, and creativity in product design. Then from the external environment is government policies.
Financial technology forecasting using an evolving connectionist system for lenders and borrowers: ecosystem behavior Al-Khowarizmi, Al-Khowarizmi; Watts, Michael J.; Efendi, Syahril; Abdulbasah Kamil, Anton
IAES International Journal of Artificial Intelligence (IJ-AI) Vol 13, No 2: June 2024
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijai.v13.i2.pp2386-2394

Abstract

Financial technology (FinTech) which is included in the development of digitalization in the financial sector in the industrial era 4.0. FinTech can make any transactions anywhere with the pillars of peer-to-peer (P2P) lending, merchants, and crowdfunding. In the P2P lending pillar, there are borrowers and lenders who are digitized in FinTech devices. FinTech in Indonesia is controlled by a state agency called the financial services authority or otoritas jasa keuangan (OJK). In the movement of P2P lending, there are borrowers and lenders who can be said to be investors where these activities are reported to the OJK. This data can be forecasted using a neural network approach such as evolving connectionist system (ECoS), which is a method capable of forecasting with learning that develops in the hidden layer. In this research article, we present results on forecasting borrowers with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.148% and forecasting lenders with an accuracy measurement with MAPE of 0.209% with a learning rate 1=0.6 and a learning rate 2=0.3. So, this forecasting model can be said as an optimization in FinTech activities on the behavior of borrowers and lenders.