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All Journal Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan JEJAK JMM17: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Manajemen Media Trend: Berkala Kajian Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan Dinar: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan Islam Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Jurnal Ilmiah Pangabdhi Proceeding SENDI_U Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis JMM (Jurnal Masyarakat Mandiri) EKO-REGIONAL JURNAL PENGEMBANGAN EKONOMI WILAYAH Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik Unnes Journal of Public Health JURNAL EKSBIS Cendekia : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Oeconomicus Journal of Economics Jurnal Budget Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, Akuntansi Jurnal Manajemen Maranatha
Mohtar Rasyid .
Universitas Trunojoyo Madura
Religion Arts Humanities Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Public Health Social Sciences Other

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Journal : Jurnal Budget

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Dynamic Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth: A Study of Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Asean 5 Jordan Putra Cahyono; Mohtar Rasyid
Jurnal Budget : Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara Vol 10 No 1 (2025): Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara
Publisher : Pusat Analisis Anggaran dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara

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Abstract

This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth in ASEAN-5 countries, with a focus on identifying country-specific inflation thresholds and analyzing macroeconomic resilience before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aims to evaluate how inflation shocks above certain thresholds influence economic stability under dynamic global conditions. Quarterly data from 2000 to 2023 including inflation rates, real GDP growth, and lending interest rates were analyzed using Threshold Autoregressive (TAR), Panel Threshold Regression (PTR), and Vector Autoregression (VAR) models. Impulse Response Functions (IRF) and Chow tests were employed to assess dynamic interactions and structural shifts across time. Results reveal heterogeneous inflation thresholds: 0.13% (Singapore), 2.11% (Malaysia), 2.39% (Philippines), and 3.25% (Thailand), while Indonesia exhibits a volatile threshold of –1.11%, reflecting structural instability. When inflation exceeds these thresholds, real GDP declines significantly, with Indonesia showing a contraction of up to 1.2% over four quarters. Post-pandemic impacts are notably stronger, indicating reduced economic resilience. The study highlights the need for adaptive, threshold-based monetary policy tailored to each country’s structural profile. Regional policy harmonization should be reconsidered in favor of context-specific responses, including inflation-targeting frameworks, commodity price stabilization, and economic diversification to strengthen resilience amid global uncertainty.
Co-Authors Ahsan, Abdillah Anita Kristina Anita Kristina, Anita Dyah Wahyuningsih Elvi Kurniawati Henny Oktavianti Jordan Putra Cahyono Kusuma, Refiasnyah Tri Permata, Arif Rachman Eka Permata, Arif Rachman Eka Putu Ayu Pramitha Purwanti Refiansyah Tri Kusuma Soleh Hanafi Ihsan