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All Journal Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Kinerja Journal of Indonesian Applied Economics Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan The Indonesian Journal of Planning and Development Jurnal Samudra Ekonomi dan Bisnis Develop Elastisitas Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan
Didi Nuryadin, Didi
Fakultas Ekonomi Dan Bisnis UPN Veteran Yogyakarta
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Analytical Hierarchy Process Approach on Regional Product Competitiveness in Magelang, Central Java Didi Nuryadin; Jamzani Sodik
KINERJA Vol. 21 No. 1 (2017): KINERJA
Publisher : Faculty of Business and Economics Universitas Atma Jaya Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24002/kinerja.v21i1.1035

Abstract

This study aims to identify and analyze the data and information to determine the local featured products through the aspects of value-added, market expansion and production technology. The location is the town of Magelang in which there are many small and medium industries with a wide range of their products. The analytical tools used include common analytical technique used to determine a featured product. They are scoring, value chain and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The result of the study shows that the main criteria for weighting the featured products are competitive advantage, stakeholders' acceptance and societal benefits. Through all three criteria, there are three main local featured products becoming the. They are getuk (the result of processed cassava), kerupuk tahu (tofu crackers) and ceriping ketela (cassava crackers). Furthermore, through a comparative analysis of the criteria, it can be concluded that the product getuk can be considered as the Regional Industry Core Competence based featured product from Magelang.Keywords: Analytical Hierarchy Proces, Regional Product, Competitiveness
Developing a Dynamic Model for Sustainable Development in Yogyakarta City Didi Nuryadin; Samsubar Saleh; Amirullah Setya Hardi; Evita Hanie Pangaribowo
The Indonesian Journal of Planning and Development Vol 4, No 2 (2019): October 2019
Publisher : Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/ijpd.4.2.57-68

Abstract

Developments in Yogyakarta City have driven residents of the city and its outskirts to access available social facilities, such as education, healthcare, and employment. If this continues, various social and urban problems may emerge, including increased population density and traffic congestion. Another implication of this process is decreased environmental carrying capacity as a result of continued use of non-sustainable approaches to development. This study aims to model the complexity of the relationships between aspects i.e., social, economic, and environmental of the area studied. The system dynamics method is used, as it is a disciplinary approach that is able to fully explore problems that occur in interconnected systems rather than examining incidents partially. As the basis for this model, the causal loop diagram (CLD) model has been applied based on literature studies and field observations. The result shows that developments in the tourism and education sectors are the main factors affecting the intersections of social, economic, and environmental considerations.
DETERMINAN EKSPOR MINYAK KELAPA SAWIT (CPO) PENDEKATAN ECM STUDI KASUS TAHUN 1988-2022 Mega, Mega Shafira Permatasari; Didi Nuryadin
Develop Vol 8 No 2 (2024): September 2024
Publisher : Universitas Dr. Soetomo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25139/dev.v8i2.7833

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to determine the factors influencing the colume of Indonesian palm oil (CPO) exports to India and to analyze the relationship between the total production of Indonesian pal oil, international palm oil prices, India’s per capita GDP and India’s foreign exchange reserves with the volume of Indonesiapalm oil exports to India. The data used in this research are secondary data obtained from Direktorat Jenderal Perkebunan, the World Bank and UN Trade. The data in this research are tested using Error Correction Model (ECM) analysis. The results of this research indicate that in the long term, India’s per capita GDP and India’s foreign exchange reserves have a positive and significant impact on the volume of Indonesian palm oil and international palm oil prices do not affect the volume of Indonesian palm oil exports to India. In the short term, variable of India’s foreign exchange reserves has a positives and significant impact, while the variables of total production of palm oil, international plam oil prce and GDP per capita do not affect the volume of palm oil exports.
FORECASTING THE STOCK PRICE OF COAL AND COAL COMMODITY COMPANIES USING THE ARIMA AND ARCH/GARCH MODELS FOR 2011-2022 Nuryadin, Didi; Sarayuda, Ida Bagus Putu Cesario Putra; Nada, Dewi Qutrun; Ira
Journal of Indonesian Applied Economics Vol. 12 No. 2 (2024): August 2024 (IN PRESS)
Publisher : Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/ub.jiae.2024.012.02.10

Abstract

Purpose This research is a case study for the reference price of coal and coal export companies. Coal firms are one of Indonesia's main sectors within the mining industry. Design/methodology/approach In this study, ARIMA and ARCH/GARCH methods were developed to predict the share price of coal companies in Indonesia. Using ARIMA and ARCH models, it can predict accurately and quite well based on MAPE values between 6 – 20%. In addition, the movement of projections between the benchmark price and the stock price is directly proportional. Findings The study highlighted the significant influence of geopolitical events, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, and post-pandemic economic conditions on the coal industry. These factors were found to affect the stock prices of coal companies, making the forecasting models particularly valuable for adjusting to market changes. The findings provide valuable insights for investors in the coal sector, indicating that advanced econometric models can be used to make informed investment decisions. By understanding the impact of external events and identifying the most accurate forecasting models, investors can potentially enhance their investment strategies in the volatile coal market. Research limitations/implications The research limitation/implication as described in the document is centered on the scope of the study and its implications. Specifically, the research is a case study focusing on the reference price of coal and coal export companies, particularly within Indonesia's mining sector. This narrow focus means the findings may not be directly applicable to other sectors or geographical regions without further study. Additionally, the reliance on ARIMA and ARCH/GARCH methods for predicting stock prices, while effective within the parameters of this study, suggests a limitation in the methodology that may not account for all variables influencing stock prices, such as unforeseen geopolitical events or sudden market shifts. The implication here is that while the study provides valuable insights into the coal sector and offers a methodological approach for forecasting, its applicability is limited by its specific focus and the inherent unpredictability of the stock market. Originality/value This study is essential due to the post-pandemic covid 19 and the Russia - Ukraine conflict, influencing this country’s high local coal demand. The phenomenon brings a new paradigm to investors for investing in coal companies. Investors need a media to hustle with stock price growth to seek profit.
Keterkaitan Spasial Produksi Ikan Tawar dan Dampak Sosial-Ekonomi Masyarakat di Kabupaten Magelang Nuryadin, Didi; Umaroh, Rodhiah; Sodik, Jamzani
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol. 24, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

This research analyzes the spatial correlation between freshwater aquaculture production in Magelang Regency and the social and economic welfare of the community. Utilizing the Indeks Moran, LISA, and bivariate LISA methods, the results indicate inter-district correlations in freshwater fish production with a clustered distribution pattern. Mungkid and Muntilan districts are identified as production centers and hotspots. Freshwater fish production is also associated with community welfare, showing correlations with farmer groups despite a scattered distribution. However, the analysis of freshwater fish production and freshwater fish-based SMEs reveals a strong spatial relationship, particularly in Mungkid district, a central area fostering local development.
Russia-Ukraine Geopolitical Crisis Indirect Effects on Indonesia's Financial System Stability Taqiyah, Baroktut; Didi Nuryadin
Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Vol. 22 No. 02 (2024): Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan
Publisher : Pusat Pengkajian Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Publik

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22219/jep.v22i02.35011

Abstract

The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical crisis that has occurred since February 2022 is known to have resulted in a surge in food and energy prices at the global level. The escalation of the situation has expanded to cause the Fed to respond by raising the benchmark interest rate. The interest rate hike is caused by high inflation, which reduces the purchasing power of the domestic community. Financial system stability in Indonesia is essential, considering that US monetary policy is still the mecca of the country's economy. In addition, the dollar currency is still the primary means of payment in international trade. This study was conducted to analyze whether this geopolitical crisis indirectly influences Indonesia's financial system stability. The research method used to examine is the Error Correction Model (ECM). The study results show that the interest rates of the US, JCI, Money Supply, and government bonds significantly affect the short and long term. Meanwhile, inflation variables only have a significant effect in the long term. This research has policy implications where synergy resilience is needed to maintain proactive and holistic risk management in systemic. It also evaluates potential dangers and develops methods to reduce NPL to maintain stability and sustainability during changes in change and interactions between institutions included in the Financial System Stability Committee.
Forecasting the Stock Price of Coal and Coal Commodity Companies using the ARIMA and ARCH/GARCH Models for 2011-2022 Nuryadin, Didi; Sarayuda, Ida Bagus Putu Cesario Putra; Nada, Dewi Qutrun
Jurnal Samudra Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol 16 No 1 (2025): JSEB
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Samudra

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33059/jseb.v16i1.10797

Abstract

This study focuses on coal companies in Indonesia, a key sector in the mining industry. It explores how ARIMA and ARCH/GARCH models can predict the share prices of these companies. The results indicate that these models are effective, with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values ranging from 6 to 20 percent. The movement of stock prices is directly proportional to changes in the benchmark price. Additionally, it emphasizes the significant impact of geopolitical events, like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and post-pandemic economic conditions on the coal industry. These factors have influenced coal company stock prices, highlighting the value of forecasting models in adapting to market fluctuations. The research provides important insights for investors, suggesting that advanced econometric models can help make informed investment decisions and enhance strategies in the volatile coal market by accounting for external events and model accuracy.
SPATIAL PANEL REGRESSION MODELLING OF MIDDLE-INCOME TRAP IN INDONESIA Wulan Kurnia Ananda; Nuryadin, Didi
Elastisitas : Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Vol. 7 No. 1 (2025): Elastisitas, Maret 2025
Publisher : Universitas Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/e-jep.v7i1.02

Abstract

Indonesia menjadi salah satu negara berkembang yang terjebak dalam perangkap golongan negara dengan tingkatan pendapatan menengah (middle-income trap) setelah beberapa dekade pertumbuhan dan proses pembangunan ekonomi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis rata-rata lama sekolah (RLS), angka harapan hidup (AHH), penanaman modal asing (PMA), dan pembentukan modal tetap bruto (PMTB) terhadap PDRB per kapita digunakan sebagai variabel dependen untuk mendeskripsikan kondisi middle-income trap dan mengetahui apakah terdapat keterkaitan spasial PDRB per kapita antar provinsi di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan Data panel, yang menggabungkan data deret waktu (time series) yang mencakup tahun 2015-2020 dengan data cross-sectional dari 34 provinsi di Indonesia. Penggunaan metode analisis data seperti analisis regresi data panel dan regresi data panel spasial dengan pendekatan matriks jarak invers adalah teknik yang digunakan untuk menganalisis data. Spatial Error Model (SEM) merupakan model analisis yang paling tepat untuk digunakan, berdasarkan perbandingan nilai AIC. Pada uji efek spasial diketahui bahwa terdapat keterkaitan spasial pada PDRB per kapita tiap provinsi di Indonesia pada kondisi middle-income trap. Hasil analisis regresi menunjukkan bahwa Rata-Rata Lama Sekolah dan Pembentukan Modal Tetap Bruto berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap PDRB per kapita middle-income trap di Indonesia. Sedangkan Angka Harapan Hidup (AHH), Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA), tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap PDRB per kapita pada kondisi middle-income trap.
Natural resource dependence and economic growth in Sulawesi: An empirical study of the resource curse phenomenon Delfiatiffany, Adhea Mita; Sodik, Jamzani; Nuryadin, Didi
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 15 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v15i2.13795

Abstract

Natural resource abundance does not always guarantee successful regional economic development. In many cases, heavy reliance on extractive sectors can lead to structural disparities and growth stagnation, a condition widely referred to as the resource curse. This study aims to identify early signs of the resource curse in six provinces across Sulawesi Island and to examine the influence of the Regional Resource Curse Index (RRCI) on Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) during the period 2013–2023. A quantitative approach was employed by constructing a composite RRCI derived from the Natural Resource Dependency Index (NRDI) and the Regional Sustainable Development Index (RSDI), followed by regression analysis using Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS), with nickel commodity prices used as an instrumental variable. The results show that the highest RRCI value was recorded in Southeast Sulawesi at 49.7 in 2023, followed closely by West Sulawesi and North Sulawesi, both with scores of 50.8. While the OLS and Fixed Effects models found no significant effect of RRCI on GDRP, the 2SLS estimation revealed a significant and positive causal relationship, with a lnRRCI coefficient of 0.5438 at the 1% significance level. These findings suggest that regional economic growth remains strongly driven by the extractive sector, although its contribution may be short-lived. This study concludes that Sulawesi Island has not yet fully experienced the resource curse, but early indications are present. Strengthening institutional capacity and developing alternative economic sectors are necessary to prevent long-term dependency on natural resources.
Co-Authors Amirullah Setya Hardi Ardito Bhinadi Delfiatiffany, Adhea Mita DR. Bagus Santoso, M.Soc.Sc Evita Hanie Pangaribowo ira Jamzani Sodik Mega, Mega Shafira Permatasari Nada, Dewi Qutrun RINI DWI ASTUTI Rodhiah Umaroh Samsubar Saleh Sarayuda, Ida Bagus Putu Cesario Putra Sri Suharsih Taqiyah, Baroktut Triyanto Anda, Triyanto Wulan Kurnia Ananda