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CONVERGENCE OF INCOME AMONG PROVINCES IN INDONESIA,1984-2008: A PANEL DATA APPROACH Kharisma, Bayu; Saleh, Samsubar
Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business Vol 28, No 2 (2013): May
Publisher : Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business

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This paper aims to analyze the income dispersion and test both absolute convergenceand conditional convergence of income among 26 provinces in Indonesia during 1984-2008 using static and dynamic panel data approach. Using the Ï convergence analysisindicated that income dispersion measured by coefficient variation occurred in 1984-2008generally experienced fluctuation. Factors influencing income dispersion rate were theimpact of the economic crisis, the period of fiscal decentralization in Indonesia, the impactof the Bali bombing, impact of rising fuel prices in October 2005 and the earthquake inJogjakarta and Central Java. Dynamic panel data estimation with system GMM producedan efficient and consistent estimator to overcome the problems of instrument validity. Inaddition, it is also dedicated to minimize the risk of bias due to endogeneity problem.There was a strong indication of the existence of absolute convergence and conditionalconvergence among 26 provinces in Indonesia during 1984-2008. Thus, there wasevidence that the economy of poorer provinces tends to grow faster compared to the moreprosperous provinces, and this progress meant that there was a tendency to catch up.Based on the system GMM estimation, it is found that the provinces in Java havefasterspeed of convergence comparatively to those outside Java.Keywords: Income dispersion, absolute convergence, conditional convergence, systemGMM

PUBLIC SECTOR EFFICIENCY IN INDONESIA (FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION ERA, 2001 â2008 Kirana, Mayanggita; Saleh, Samsubar
Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business Vol 26, No 1 (2011): January
Publisher : Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business

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While many developing countries have devolved public responsibilities to localÂ governments in recent years, some studies have examined whether decentralizationactually leads to greater public sector allocation efficiency. This paper approaches thisÂ question by assessing the efficiency of government expenditure on public sector underfiscal decentralization. The area of public expenditure is of great importance making theÂ findings have strong implications with regard to public sector efficiency.We compute public sector performance (PSP) and public sector efficiency (PSE)Â indicators, comprising of composite and 9 sub indicators, for 33 provinces in Indonesia.The first 6 sub indicators are opportunity indicators that take into account education,Â health outcomes, poverty, gender equality, quality of public infrastructure (transportationand energy). 3 order indicators reflect the standard musgravian tasks for the government:Â allocation, distribution, and stabilization. The input and output efficiency of public sectorsÂ across provinces is then measured using a non-parametric production frontier technique.Free Disposable Hull (FDH) analysis is used to estimate the extent of slack in governmentÂ expenditures. The study finds significant differences in PSP and PSE, which suggests alarge potential for expenditure savings in many provinces. All these findings suggestÂ diminishing marginal products of higher public spending.We also estimate a semi parametric model of the public sector production process byÂ regressing FDH analysis output scores on non discretionary variables using the TobitÂ procedure. We show that inefficiency is strongly related to GDP per capita, humanÂ development index, and degree of fiscal dependence. The central message of this paper isÂ that increasing budgetary allocations for public sector may not be the only or mostÂ effective way to increase public sector outcome, and that more attention should be given toÂ increasing the efficiency of expenditure.Keywords: fiscal decentralization public sector performance, public sector efficiency,Â free disposable hull, Tobit

TRADE SPECIALIZATION INDICES: TWO COMPETING MODELS Saleh, Samsubar; Widodo, Tri
Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business Vol 25, No 2 (2010): May
Publisher : Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business

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Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index by Balassa (1965) is intensively appliedÂ in empirical studies on countriesâ comparative advantage or trade specialization.Asymmetric problem in the criteria of RCA index encourages Dalum et al. (1998) andÂ Laursen (1998) to make Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index. Thesetwo indexes are commonly employed in econometric models for analyzing countriesâ tradeÂ specialization. This paper aims to compare theoretically and empirically the twocompeting econometric models, one using RCA and the other using RSCA. The ASEANÂ countriesâ comparative advantages are presented for the empirical case studies. Thispaper concludes that RSCA can, to some extent, reduce the âoutlier problemâ of RCA inÂ the econometric model; therefore, the model using RSCA can be more statistically reliablethan the model using RCA. The two econometric models might not be suitable forÂ forecasting purposes since the estimated values could theoretically violate their criteria ofcomparative advantage and disadvantage. In the cases of ASEAN countries, we findÂ empirically that the model using RSCA is statistically more reliable than the one usingRCA. The ASEAN countries have exhibited de-specialization.JEL classification: F10, F14, F17Keywords: Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Revealed Symmetric ComparativeÂ Advantage (RSCA).

PENDEKATAN KOREKSI KESALAHAN DALAM PERSAMAAN SIMULTAN STUDI KASUS: PENDAPATAN DAN PENAWARAN UANG DI INDONESIA Pasaribu, Syamsul Hidayat; Saleh, Samsubar
Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business Vol 16, No 1 (2001): January
Publisher : Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business

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This paper attempts to introduce and apply the error correction method to estimate the simultanous-equation models and compares its results with the similar method in the case of single equation model.The empirical results show that the estimations in the case of simultanous-equation models have the similar conclusions with the case of single equation models since the fitted values of dependent variables in the reduced-form estimations are relatively close to its actual values. On the other hand, they will be quite diffrence if the fitted values of dependent variables in the reduced-form estimations quite differ from its actual values.The results show that short-run changes in money supply (M) and investment (I) have significant and positive effects on income (Y) while government expenditure (G) is insignificant and that about 0,9151% of the discrepancy between the actual and the long-run, or equilibrium, value of Y is corrected each year by the single equation assumption and 0,8706% by the simultanous-equation assumption.The results also show that short-run changes in income (Y) have significant and positive effects while interest rate (R) is insignificant on money supply (M) and that about 0,2327% of the discrepancy between the actual and the long-run, or equilibrium, value of M is corrected each year by the single equation assumption and 0,2346% by the simultanous-equation assumption.Keywords: ordinary least square, two stages least square, error correction method.

PEMODELAN DAN SIMULASI KEBIJAKAN DENGAN PENDEKATAN SYSTEM DYNAMICS 1 Kasus Permintaan Air PDAM di Salatiga Ariyani, Yayuk; Saleh, Samsubar; Fevriera, Sotya
Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol 11, No 1 (2010): JEP Juni 2010
Publisher : Universitas Muhammdaiyah Surakarta

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About 58,83 percent of Salatiga population consumes water from PDAM (Peru- sahaan Daerah Air Minum) to fulfill their daily need. The demand for water, which is increasing in line with infrastructure development and economics growth in Salatiga while the availability of water is decreasing, lead to a lack of water in some regions in Salatiga. Therefore, a new policy is needed to solve this problem. Before that, a simulation of the policy is needed because it is not possible to do a direct research on the policy. Thus, this recent study attempts to model the phenomenon of demand for water in Salatiga with dynamics system approach since it can be used for a policy simulation. Based on the simulation result, it is suggested to solve the water scarcity problem by trying to reduce the rate of leaking in water distribution from 26 percent to 5 percent.

PEMODELAN DAN SIMULASI KEBIJAKAN DENGAN PENDEKATAN SYSTEM DYNAMICS 1 Kasus Permintaan Air PDAM di Salatiga Ariyani, Yayuk; Saleh, Samsubar; Fevriera, Sotya
Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol 11, No 1 (2010): JEP Juni 2010
Publisher : Universitas Muhammdaiyah Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23917/jep.v11i1.337

About 58,83 percent of Salatiga population consumes water from PDAM (Peru- sahaan Daerah Air Minum) to fulfill their daily need. The demand for water, which is increasing in line with infrastructure development and economics growth in Salatiga while the availability of water is decreasing, lead to a lack of water in some regions in Salatiga. Therefore, a new policy is needed to solve this problem. Before that, a simulation of the policy is needed because it is not possible to do a direct research on the policy. Thus, this recent study attempts to model the phenomenon of demand for water in Salatiga with dynamics system approach since it can be used for a policy simulation. Based on the simulation result, it is suggested to solve the water scarcity problem by trying to reduce the rate of leaking in water distribution from 26 percent to 5 percent.

DETERMINANT OF ISLAMIC FINANCIAL INCLUSION IN DIGITAL ERA: CROSS-PROVINCE ANALYSIS Abdullah, Zaki; Saleh, Samsubar; ., Mujiyati
An-Nisbah: Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah Vol 8 No 1 (2021): An-Nisbah
Publisher : IAIN Tulungagung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21274/an.v8i1.3912

In recent years, the Islamic financial sector has become one of the most vital sectors in the Islamic economic system in Indonesia. Therefore, more attention needs to be paid to the measurement of Islamic financial inclusion and its and policy making, especially in facing the digitalization of economy, because the digitalization can be a momentum that provides opportunities as well as threats to Islamic finance. This study attempts to measure Islamic financial inclusion at the provincial level in Indonesia through the dimensions of accessibility, availability and utilization and analyzes the impact of digitalization on Islamic financial inclusion. Measurements are made using the Sarma Index, while the analysis of the impact of digitalization on Islamic financial inclusion employs the fixed effect model on the balanced panel data. The measurement results show that developed provinces tend to have higher levels of Islamic financial inclusion compared to developing provinces. Furthermore, provinces with a Muslim majority have a higher level of Islamic financial inclusion compared to provinces with a Muslim minority populations. In the panel data analysis, it was found that internet penetration has a negative and significant effect on Islamic financial inclusion, which shows that the majority of people in Indonesia still use the internet to access entertainment content and that internet use has not been optimized to access financial services. Nevertheless, the presence of the Islamic fintech platforms has a significant positive effect on Islamic financial inclusion in Indonesia. The variable level of cell phone usage has no significant effect on the level of Islamic financial inclusion and the average length of schooling has a significant negative effect on Islamic financial inclusion.

Determinant of FDI Inflows in OIC Countries Megasari, Tania; Saleh, Samsubar
International Journal of Islamic Economics and Finance (IJIEF) Vol 4, No 1 (2021): IJIEF Vol 4 (1), January 2021
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

This study aims to analyze the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) country members for the period 2005 to 2018 The determinant variables of FDI are corruption, political stability and macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rates, economic growth, and trade openness. Analysis used in the studyÂ is the fixed effect model (FEM) of the OIC data panel.The results showed that economic growth and trade openness had a significant influence on foreign direct investment (FDI), while the effects of corruption, political stability, inflation and the exchange rate have no significant effect on foreign direct investment (FDI).

INTERAKSI DINAMIS VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA Wulandari, Wulandari; Saleh, Samsubar
Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan JESP Volume 16 Nomor 1, April 2015
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

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Abstract: This study aims to analyze how the effect of macroeconomic variables on stock returns in Indonesia. Stock returns in this study using two approaches, JCI and LQ45. The selection of macroeconomic variables in this study is an adaptation of the research which using a variable index of industrial production, money supply (M2), SBI rate and the exchange rate against the dollarto determine the risk of the domestic macroeconomic and usingthe federal funds rate variable to determine the risk of macroeconomic abroad in the form of U.S. moneÂtary policy shocks. Techniques of analysis in this study using time seriesVAR (Vector AutoÂregresive). The data used in this study are monthly time series data. The results of this study indicate that monetary sector has a direct impact on stock price movements in Indonesia comÂpared to the realactivity indicated by the absence ofa direct effect of changes in the indusÂtrial production index for the stock price index movement either JCI nor LQ45. This study also indicate the U.S. monetary policy shock directly affects stock returns in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).Abstrak: Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh variabel-variabel makroekonomi terhadap return saham di Indonesia. Return saham dalam penelitian ini menggunakan dua pendekatan yaitu IHSG dan LQ45. Pemilihan variabel-variabel makroekonomi dalam penelitian ini merupakan adaptasi dari penelitian yaitu, menggunakan variabel indeks produksi industri, jumlah uang beredar (M2), tingkat diskonto SBI dan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar untuk mengetahui risiko makroekonomi dari dalam negeri dan menggunakan variabel federal fund rate untuk mengetahui risiko makroekonomi dari luar negeri yang berupa kejutan kebijakan moneter Amerika Serikat. Teknik analisis dalam penelitian ini menggunakan metode time series VAR (Vector Autoregresive. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini merupakan data runtun waktu bulanan dengan periode 1999:01â€“ 2007:12. Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa secara keseluruhan sektor moneter lebih memÂiliki pengaruh langsung terhadap pergerakan harga saham di Indonesia dibandingkan dengan aktivitas riil yang ditunjukkan oleh tidak adanya pengaruh langsung dari perubahan indeks produksi industri terhadap pergerakan indeks harga saham baik IHSG maupun LQ45. Penelitian ini juga menunjukkan kejutan kebijakan moneter Amerika Serikat berpengaruh langsung terhadap return saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI).Â

Determinant of FDI Inflows in OIC Countries Megasari, Tania; Saleh, Samsubar
International Journal of Islamic Economics and Finance (IJIEF) Vol 4, No 1 (2021): IJIEF Vol 4 (1), January 2021
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

This study aims to analyze the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) country members for the period 2005 to 2018 The determinant variables of FDI are corruption, political stability and macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rates, economic growth, and trade openness. Analysis used in the studyÂ is the fixed effect model (FEM) of the OIC data panel.The results showed that economic growth and trade openness had a significant influence on foreign direct investment (FDI), while the effects of corruption, political stability, inflation and the exchange rate have no significant effect on foreign direct investment (FDI).

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