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Forecasting USD to Rupiah Exchange Rate with the Fuzzy Time Series Singh Approach Santika, Reghina Ajeng; Aviolla Terza Damaliana; Mohammad Idhom
Journal of Information Systems and Technology Research Vol. 4 No. 3 (2025): September 2025
Publisher : Ali Institute or Research and Publication

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55537/jistr.v4i3.1238

Abstract

The exchange rate plays a crucial role in determining a country's economic stability, especially for countries like Indonesia that rely heavily on international trade. In recent years, the fluctuations in global currency values have intensified, particularly after the trade war between the United States and China began in 2018. These fluctuations have significantly impacted the exchange rate between the Indonesian Rupiah and the US Dollar, which in turn affects the competitiveness of Indonesian exports, increases the cost of imports, and influences key economic decisions made by investors, importers, and exporters. The problem of this research lies in the challenge of predicting exchange rate movements amidst economic uncertainty and currency volatility.  This study aims to address this problem by forecasting the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the US Dollar using the Fuzzy Time Series Singh method. This method is chosen due to its ability to capture complex data patterns with high accuracy and simpler computational requirements. The primary objective of the research is to evaluate the effectiveness and accuracy of the Fuzzy Time Series Singh method in predicting the exchange rate of the Rupiah against the US Dollar. The results of this study show that the forecasting model achieved an accuracy rate with a MAPE value of less than 10%, indicating that the method can provide highly reliable predictions, which can assist economic actors in making better-informed decisions in the face of currency volatility.
Implementasi Model BiLSTM-Attention untuk Prediksi Nilai IHSG Berdasarkan Data Historis OHLCV Ramadhanti, Amirah Rizky; Putri, Safira Rahmalia; Trimono; Mohammad Idhom
Jurnal Ilmiah Media Sisfo Vol 19 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Ilmiah Media Sisfo
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Dinamika Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33998/mediasisfo.2025.19.2.2392

Abstract

The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) reflects the performance of the Indonesian capital market, but predicting it is challenging due to high volatility and the influence of various external factors. This study aims to develop and evaluate a deep learning-based predictive model using a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) architecture combined with an Attention Mechanism to predict the IHSG value based on historical numerical data (OHLCV). This method was chosen for its ability to recognize bidirectional sequential patterns and highlight the most relevant historical information in the prediction process. The research was conducted quantitatively using an experimental approach, and model evaluation was performed using regression metrics such as R², RMSE, MAE, and MAPE. The results obtained showed excellent predictive performance with an R² of 0.9485, MAPE of 0.63%, RMSE of 59.47, and MAE of 45.12. Additionally, attention weight analysis revealed that the model focuses more on the last two days within the prediction time window, indicating that recent information significantly influences IHSG movements. These findings suggest that the BiLSTM-Attention approach is effective in capturing stock market dynamics and has the potential to serve as a strategic tool for data-driven investment decision-making.
Analisis sentimen program makan bergizi gratis menggunakan bidirectional gated recurrent unit Krisnawan; Zufar Abdullah Rabbani; Trimono; Mohammad Idhom
IT Explore: Jurnal Penerapan Teknologi Informasi dan Komunikasi Vol 4 No 3 (2025): IT-Explore Oktober 2025
Publisher : Fakultas Teknologi Informasi, Universitas Kristen Satya Wacana

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24246/itexplore.v4i3.2025.pp282-294

Abstract

The Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program launched by the Indonesian government aims to address the problem of malnutrition in children and students. However, the acceptance of this program in the community still requires in-depth evaluation because there are many negative sentiments that dominate on social media. This study aims to analyze the sentiment of the Indonesian community regarding the Free Nutritious Meals program on social media X (Twitter) using the Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU) model. Of the 1,405 tweet data obtained, 57% were negative opinions and 43% were positive opinions. The evaluation results show that the BiGRU model with FastText support to handle potential overfitting, is able to classify sentiment effectively, with an accuracy of 80%. Sentiment analysis shows that the majority of public responses to the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program tend to be negative, with 798 negative tweets and 607 positive. This reflects public dissatisfaction with the implementation of the program and highlights the need for evaluation and improvements so that the benefits can be more widely felt by the community.
Implementasi Manajemen Bandwidth Menggunakan Metode Queue Tree dengan PCQ di SMK Negeri 1 Surabaya Fikri Dwilaksono; Henni Endah Wahanani; Mohammad Idhom
Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Informatika dan Komunikasi Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): Juli: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Informatika dan Komunikasi
Publisher : Lembaga Pengembangan Kinerja Dosen

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/juitik.v5i2.1029

Abstract

With the rapid advancement of information technology, maintaining a stable and efficient computer network has become essential, particularly in educational settings. SMK Negeri 1 Surabaya encounters difficulties in managing its limited bandwidth because of the large number of users accessing the network simultaneously. This research focuses on applying bandwidth management through the Queue Tree technique combined with Per Connection Queuing (PCQ) on the school's computer network using Mikrotik hardware. The approach aims to enhance network performance by improving throughput, minimizing delays, and stabilizing jitter. Evaluation of Quality of Service (QoS) indicators—including throughput, packet loss, delay, and jitter—demonstrated favorable outcomes, with all metrics categorized as good. Findings confirm that using Queue Tree and PCQ methods contributes to fairer bandwidth distribution, mitigates network congestion, and improves overall network quality in the educational environment. This study offers a practical solution to support teaching and administrative processes by providing a more reliable and efficient network infrastructure.
Implementation of Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) Method for Predicting Traditional Market Revenue Achievement in Surabaya Muizzadin, Muizzadin; Mohammad Idhom; Damaliana, Aviolla Terza
Indonesian Journal of Electronics, Electromedical Engineering, and Medical Informatics Vol. 7 No. 2 (2025): May
Publisher : Jurusan Teknik Elektromedik, Politeknik Kesehatan Kemenkes Surabaya, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35882/ijeeemi.v7i2.82

Abstract

Traditional markets play an important role in the regional economy, including in the city of Surabaya. However, the number of traditional markets in Surabaya has continued to decline in recent years due to competition with modern markets. In addition, the contribution of traditional markets to Regional Original Income (PAD) has fluctuated, for example 1.67% in 2013, 1.66% in 2014, and increased to 1.76% in 2015. This condition poses a challenge for the management of regional economic policies, so an accurate prediction method is needed to support strategic decision making. This study aims to predict the achievement of traditional market revenue in Surabaya using the Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) method. The data used is the percentage of traditional market revenue achievement over the past fifteen years. The BSTS model is applied with various components, including Local Level, Local Linear Trend, and Seasonal, which allows flexibility in capturing trends, seasonal patterns, and structural changes in the data. Model evaluation is carried out using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) to assess prediction accuracy. The results of the study showed that the BSTS model with Local Level and Seasonal components and 1,000 MCMC iterations provided the best performance, with a MAPE value of 4.036% and an RMSE of 5.198. This model is able to capture trend and seasonal patterns well, making it effective in predicting traditional market revenue achievements. Based on these findings, the BSTS method has proven to be a reliable approach in predicting traditional market revenue achievements. The results of this study are expected to help market managers and policy makers in designing more adaptive strategies to maintain the competitiveness of traditional markets and increase their contribution to the regional economy.
Implementasi Spatial Durbin Model Berbasis Data Science Untuk Analisis Kemiskinan Jawa Timur Arif, Farah Yusnaida; Mohammad Idhom; Trimono, Trimono
Seminar Nasional Teknologi dan Multidisiplin Ilmu (SEMNASTEKMU) Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): SEMNASTEKMU
Publisher : Universitas Sains dan Teknologi Komputer

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.51903/9w9pye50

Abstract

Poverty remains a major development challenge that requires data-driven analysis to understand its variation across regions. This study focuses on East Java, where spatial interdependence is suspected to influence poverty distribution, making spatial analysis relevant for supporting regional policy design. The study examines determinants of poverty using the Spatial Durbin Model, which captures both direct effects and indirect spatial spillovers through lagged independent variables. The analytical workflow is implemented using a Python-based data science pipeline to ensure a systematic, transparent, and reproducible process, in line with current trends in technology-supported research. The dataset consists of 2024 secondary data from the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics. The analysis includes data preprocessing, construction of a Queen Contiguity spatial weight matrix, Moran’s I test to detect spatial autocorrelation, and SDM estimation. Results indicate significant positive spatial autocorrelation (I = 0.4099; p = 0.0008), showing that poverty is not randomly distributed. While the spatial lag of the dependent variable is not significant, an indirect spatial effect appears through the Gini Ratio (θ₄ = –39.42168; p = 0.03855). Moreover, the Human Development Index significantly reduces poverty. These findings highlight the roles of regional inequality and human development in shaping poverty dynamics and provide insights for more targeted policy interventions.