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All Journal SPEKTRA: Jurnal Kajian Pendidikan Sains AXIOM : Jurnal Pendidikan dan Matematika MATHEMA: JURNAL PENDIDIKAN MATEMATIKA Budapest International Research and Critics Institute-Journal (BIRCI-Journal): Humanities and Social Sciences Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Indonesia Safari : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Indonesia Jurnal Kajian dan Terapan Matematika
Muhammad Najib Mubarrok
Alma Ata University
Religion Arts Humanities Astronomy Chemistry Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Mathematics Physics Public Health Social Sciences Other

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Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain for Rice Production Forecasting Muhammad Najib Mubarrok; Uli Wildan Nuryanto; Renatalia Fika; Pandu Adi Cakranegara; Adelin Elsina Tanati
Budapest International Research and Critics Institute-Journal (BIRCI-Journal) Vol 5, No 3 (2022): Budapest International Research and Critics Institute August
Publisher : Budapest International Research and Critics University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33258/birci.v5i3.6757

Abstract

Forecasting is an activity to get an estimate of the value that will appear in the future by paying attention to past events. Forecasting can be used as decision support in determining a policy in various fields. Forecasting can be done using statistical methods such as regression analysis, trend analysis, MA, and ARIMA. In this paper, the fuzzy time series markov chain method will be forecast which will be applied to rice production data in D.I. Yogyakarta Province. The fuzzy time series markov chain method was chosen because it does not need to meet certain assumptions so that the fuzzy time series markov chain can be applied to time series data with stationary and non-stationary patterns. This study aims to analyze fuzzy time series markov chain for rice production forecasting. This study uses time series analysis. The data used in this research is secondary data. The data used in this study is data on rice production in D.I. Yogyakarta Province in 1970-2017 taken from the website www.pertanian.go.id. Historical data consists of 48 data. Solving this research problem using fuzzy time series markov chain method. The results of the study show that forecasting with 11 fuzzy sets is declared the best forecast with a mean absolute percentage error of 4.156%. .
Co-Authors Abdus Sholihin Adawiya, Robiatul Adawiya, Robiatul Agus Maman Abadi Ahmad Anis Abdullah Aisyah, Nabila Aqidatul Ana Hafani Anindita Alya F. Fadhillah Anjarwati, Subekti Aryani, Anggi Erna Ayu Fitrah A. Jannah Azizah, Fika Fa’aliyatul Cakranegara, Pandu Adi Casanova, Anriany Duwik Nur Cahyo Dyahsih Alin Sholihah Imam Hambali Lestari Nur Fadhila Nur Anisa Dami Putri, Mufida Awalia Rachma Yuni Andari Renatalia Fika Rino Richardo Rino Richardo Robiatul Adawiya Sariperkasi, Liansya Ayu Siti Hazar Humairoh Suhail Elly Uli Wildan Nuryanto