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All Journal Abdimas Umtas : Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Equity: Jurnal Ekonomi Jurnal Manajemen Stratejik dan Simulasi Bisnis Economic Development Analysis Journal Jurnal Ekonomi Kesehatan Indonesia
Besti Novianda
Economics And Business Faculty, Universitas Andalas
Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Health Professions Medicine & Pharmacology Public Health Social Sciences

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 1 
Short Term Forecasting Method: Covid 19 and Capital Market in Indonesia Novianda Besti
Jurnal Manajemen Stratejik dan Simulasi Bisnis Vol 3 No 1 (2022): Jurnal Manajemen Stratejik dan Simulasi Bisnis
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Andalas

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25077/mssb.3.1.35-48.2022

Abstract

This study aimed to predict the short-term confirmed Covid 19 and Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) cases in Indonesia. The prediction uses ARIMA and SutteARIMA methods, and the data processed with R software. Researcher using time series data from April 2nd, 2020 (the date of covid 19 detected in Indonesia) to September 30th, 2020. We are fitted the data with the data from October 1st to October 10th, 2020. Based on the fitted data, we could forecast the cases from October 11th to October 31st, 2020. We applied the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to predict accuracy measures to evaluate forecasting methods. Based on forecasting with ARIMA and SutteARIMA methods, the SutteARIMA method is more suitable than ARIMA to calculate the daily forecasts of negative Covid 19 in Indonesia with MAPE value of 0.156 (smaller than 0.21 compared to MAPE value of ARIMA). At the same time, the ARIMA method is more suitable than SutteARIMA to calculate the daily forecasts of positive Covid 19 and JCI in Indonesia. The MAPE value of 0.06 (smaller than 0.104 compared to MAPE value of SutteARIMA for positive Covid 19) and MAPE value of 0.012 (smaller than 0.021 compared to MAPE value of SutteARIMA for JCI Indonesia).
Digital and Financial Access: Evidence from Household Consumption in Indonesia Besti Novianda; Indah Maya Sari; Verni Juita
Equity: Jurnal Ekonomi Vol 11 No 2 (2023): Equity: Jurnal Ekonomi
Publisher : Universitas Bangka Belitung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33019/equity.v11i2.227

Abstract

This research focuses on the influence of formal finance access and digital financial services on household consumption in Indonesia. Researchers use secondary data by digging into information obtained from Susenas 2019 and using The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The research results show that the development of Access to formal finance and digital financial services is increasingly developing, which will increase household consumption in Indonesia. The results of this study are based on previous studies. The results imply that digital financial inclusion can increase household consumption expenditure in Indonesia. It is important for policymakers to find the right mechanism to improve the financial well-being of Indonesia's economically vulnerable population. Promoting the comprehensive and balanced development of financial institutions is an important step to stimulate household consumption. Therefore, financial institutions need to embrace digital finance as a great opportunity and expand their market by providing easier access to financial services for low- and middle-income households so that people can reap the desired benefit.
Socio-Economic and Property Crime Rate in Indonesia Dwi Tiva Anozi; Besti Novianda
Economics Development Analysis Journal Vol 12 No 3 (2023): Economics Development Analysis Journal
Publisher : Economics Development Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/edaj.v12i3.68829

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effects of socio-economic factors (inequality in income distribution, poverty, unemployment, and population) on crime rates in 31 provinces in Indonesia. The article utilizes yearly data published by the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS-Indonesia) from 2013 to 2022. This study examines the socio-economic effects on crime rates using the two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (SYS GMM). The estimation shows that the lag in the number of property crimes positively and significantly affects property crime in Indonesia. This result indicates a dynamic relationship with the property crime rate. Moreover, poverty, unemployment, and total population positively and significantly affect short- and long-run property crime rates. However, the Gini index shows a positive correlation but lacks significance in both short- and long-term effects. These estimation results recommend that efforts be made to alleviate poverty and ensure equitable income distribution. Poverty and inequality reduction need to be pursued by all parties, especially the government, through initiatives aimed at expanding employment opportunities and sustainably empowering the community's economy.
Mandatory Social Distancing for Covid-19 Outbreak and Its Economic Consequences in West Sumatera - Indonesia Ridwan, Endrizal; Novianda, Besti
Jurnal Ekonomi Kesehatan Indonesia Vol. 6, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

The Governor of West Sumatra Province of Indonesia imposed a mandatory social distancing (PSBB) to slow down the Covid-19 outbreak from 22 April to 7 June 2020. The cons argued that PSBB was ineffective because of the impossibility to limit people’s movements. The pros, on the other hand, viewed PSBB as a training facility to increase people’s awareness about the pandemic. Our research aims at evaluating the effectiveness of PSBB by using the Kermack-McKendrick SIR pandemic model and the NLSUR non-linear least square estimation. Using daily data published by the Covid-19 task force, we found that PSBB had a positive impact on flattening the curve. Assuming that vulnerable people were around 30% of the population, PSBB has reduced the rate of spread of Covid-19 from around 2 persons to less than 1 person for every infected. We also found that the economic consequences of PSBB on commodities varied by their demand and supply characteristics. We, therefore, suggest that policy interventions related to price control and subsidy should consider these characteristics. For future research, as data more available, the effect of PSBB on broader economic variables such as poverty and growth in the province needs to be examined.
Community Service : Helping Businesses Grow H. Ridwan By's Tenun Kubang through Business Strategy Development in The Digital Era Besti. Besti Novianda; Indah Maya Sari; Ma’ruf; Endrizal Ridwan; Fery Andrianus
ABDIMAS: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Vol. 7 No. 2 (2024): ABDIMAS UMTAS: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Muhammadiyah Tasikmalaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35568/abdimas.v7i2.4555

Abstract

H. Ridwan By’s Kubang weaving strives to maintain its existence through digital marketing by using unique traditional motifs and the  distinctiveness  of  Minangkabau motifs  as  a  Minangkabau cultural heritage to local and international communities. By adopting digital technology and design, H. Ridwan By’s Kubang weaving can increase the attractiveness of Minangkabau weaving products, thus reaching a broader market. The research methodology used was observation and interviews with the owner and craftmen of H. Ridwan By’s Kubang weaving. The marketing strategy  used  is  social  media  and  e-commerce  platforms  to increase the visibility and accessibility of Minangkabau weaving products globally. To positively impact the business, expand the market, and introduce the richness of Minangkabau culture to the world.
Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia Using ARIMAX : The Role of Money Supply and Exchange Rate Novianda, Besti
Equity: Jurnal Ekonomi Vol 13 No 2 (2025): Equity : Jurnal Ekonomi
Publisher : Universitas Bangka Belitung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33019/equity.v13i2.370

Abstract

Inflation is an essential economic indicator since it signals rising prices for goods and services. Economic factors influence Indonesia's inflation rate, including the money supply and exchange rate. These factors can have an impact not only on inflation at a single point in time but also throughout time. The money supply and exchange rate are two economic factors that substantially influence inflation. As a result, it is critical to forecast Indonesia's inflation rate using money supply and exchange rate as input variables. This study examines the effect of the money supply and exchange rate on the inflation rate. The data used is monthly from 2021-2023 sourced from Bank Indonesia (SEKI BI). This study used the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Factor (ARIMAX) technique. The results reveal that the ARIMAX (0,2,1) accurately predicts inflation, as seen by MAPE values of 9.48%. The results also show that the money supply and exchange rate significantly affect the inflation rate in Indonesia. This is due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesia, which has caused the inverse effect of the exogenous variables. The ARIMAX model can be a valuable and efficient tool for improving forecasting.
Household Consumption and Electronic Money Transactions in Indonesia: VECM Approach Azilla, Widya; Novianda, Besti
Economics Development Analysis Journal Vol 13 No 1 (2024): Economics Development Analysis Journal
Publisher : Economics Development Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/edaj.v13i1.78819

Abstract

The high contribution of household consumption to GDP reflects the significant level of public consumption in Indonesia. This is evident from the annual increase in transactions through digital payment system, which facilitate easier for people to consume goods and services. Previous studies have offered various perspectives on the impact of electronic money transactions on household consumption, in both the short and long run. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the relationship between electronic money transactions and household consumption in Indonesia. By employing the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and examining data from 2009Q1 to 2022Q4, the study aims to provide insights into the dynamics of short-term and long-term relationships among electronic money transactions, household consumption expenditure, real income, and interest rates. Based on the results in the short term, it was found that electronic money and real income are positively related to household consumption expenditure in Indonesia. With the increase in electronic money transactions and people's income levels rising, households tend to spend more money, contributing to increased societal consumption. However, this positive relationship does not persist in the long term, suggesting that electronic money does not significantly impact household spending patterns over extended periods. Real income, on the other hand, continues to have a consistent effect in the long term. Furthermore, interest rates do not significantly influence consumption expenditure in either the short or long term. This implies that changes in interest rates do not notably affect consumer behaviour regarding spending habits in Indonesia.
Co-Authors Azilla, Widya Dwi Tiva Anozi Endrizal Ridwan Fery Andrianus, Fery Indah Maya Sari Ma’ruf Verni Juita