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All Journal Ekonomi Bisnis Jurnal Masharif al-Syariah: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Perbankan Syariah Jurnal Samudra Ekonomi dan Bisnis Ekonis : Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Jurnal Ilmiah MEA (Manajemen, Ekonomi, dan Akuntansi) Trending: Jurnal Manajemen dan Ekonomi Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Ekonomi, Pendidikan, dan Sosial Humaniora Riwayat: Educational Journal of History and Humanities Journal of Sustainable Economics Harmoni Sosial : Jurnal Pengabdian Dan Solidaritas Masyarakat Efficient: Indonesian Journal of Development Economics
Ayu Angelina Pasaribu
Universitas Senior Medan
Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences Other

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Reformulating Indonesia’s Development Paradigm toward Sustainable Prosperity Ayu Angelina Pasaribu; Herry Daniel Laurent Marpaung
Efficient: Indonesian Journal of Development Economics Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/efficient.v9i1.40626

Abstract

This study reexamines Indonesia’s development paradigm with a focus on achieving sustainable welfare. Employing a dynamic panel data approach, the analysis investigates the effects of social, economic, and environmental dimensions on sustainable welfare proxied by the Gini ratio across 34 provinces over the 2019–2024 period. To address endogeneity concerns and capture dynamic relationships, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is applied. The estimation results from the FDGMM, SYSGMM, and DPGMM models satisfy the criteria of validity, consistency, and unbiasedness. Overall, the findings indicate that the explanatory variables in all three models exert a strong, negative, and statistically significant effect on inequality reduction, thereby enhancing sustainable welfare. However, per capita income exhibits a positive yet statistically insignificant impact on welfare in both the short and long run. Based on these findings, the study recommends a reformulation of Indonesia’s development paradigm toward sustainable welfare by positioning the Human Development Index (HDI) as the core foundation of development and structural reform. The results underscore the need for policy innovation that prioritizes HDI-based development, accelerates structural transformation, and promotes green job creation. Ultimately, progressive, inclusive, and consistent policy design is essential for achieving sustainable wellbeing, with a strong emphasis on equity and long-term sustainability
Analysis of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Economic Growth Lestari Sihite; Yosie Gabriela Panjaitan; Ayu Angelina Pasaribu; Sutejo Perangin Angin; Herry Daniel Laurent Marpaung
Efficient: Indonesian Journal of Development Economics Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/efficient.v9i1.40810

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of the combination of monetary and fiscal policies on economic growth in North Sumatera Province using time series data for the period 2010-2024. The analysis was conducted using VAR method and forecasting. The result show that local government spending and Local Own-Source Revenue contribute positively and significantly to economic growth. Conversely, inflation has a negative and significant impact on economic growth. These findings confirm that local fiscal instruments are the main drivers of the economy. On the other hand, General Allocation Funds and the BI Rate are not proven to have a significant effect on economic growth. No flypaper effect was found, because Local Own-Source Revenue plays a greater role in driving RGDP than General Allocation Funds, indicating that North Sumatra's economic performance is more supported by its internal potential. For the Policy Mix, a combination of expansive and productive fiscal policies with stable and accommodative monetary policies is most effective. While local governments support growth, BI stabilizes and provides a favorable economic environment.
Analisis Kebijakan Makroekonomi di Masa Ketidakpastian Global terhadap Daya Beli Indonesia Lestari Sihite; Ayu Angelina Pasaribu; Hasanah Hasanah
Trending: Jurnal Manajemen dan Ekonomi Vol. 4 No. 3 (2026): Juli: Trending: Jurnal Manajemen dan Ekonomi
Publisher : Universitas 45 Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30640/trending.v4i3.7084

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of macroeconomic policies, specifically global oil prices, the BI Rate, and government expenditure, on inflation and its implications for the purchasing power of the Indonesian people amid global uncertainty. Utilizing a quantitative approach with a descriptive-associative design, this research utilizes monthly time series data from January 2015 to December 2024. The analytical method applied is the Error Correction Model (ECM) with the two-step Engle Granger procedure. The estimation results indicate that global oil prices have a positive and significant effect on inflation in both the short and long term, demonstrating a direct transmission of cost-push inflation that threatens real purchasing power. Meanwhile, the BI Rate also shows a strong positive and significant influence in both models, reflecting a proactive (forward-looking) monetary policy response where interest rates are raised to anchor inflation expectations driven by external shocks. Conversely, government expenditure consistently has no significant effect on inflation, indicating that inflation in Indonesia during the observation period was driven by global supply shocks rather than domestic demand-pull inflation. Furthermore, the short-term Error Correction Term (ECT) coefficient is positive  and significant, indicating a divergent or over-correction effect in the short term due to the internal lag autocorrelation of inflation itself.
Analisis Tenaga Kerja di Sektor Industri di Indonesia Menggunakan Pendekatan GMMM Ayu Angelina Pasaribu; Ahmad Albar Tanjung; Sukardi Sukardi; Paidi Paidi
Jurnal Masharif al-Syariah: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Perbankan Syariah Vol 8 No 1 (2023)
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30651/jms.v8i1.17575

Abstract

Abstrak Dalam melaksanakan proses pembangunan ada hal yg sangat krusial buat menopang aktivitas pembangunan yaitu ialah Tenaga kerja, tenaga kerja sangat krusial bagi pembangunan ekonomi sebab peranan tenaga kerja merupakan galat satu faktor produksi yg akan mempengaruhi hasil Penyerapan tenaga kerja tadi diharapkan dalam distribusi pendapatan yang nantinya akan berdampak di pembangunan ekonomi. Tujuan penelitian ini merupakan memodelkan penyerapan energi kerja sektor industri dan melihat imbas elastisitas jangka pendek juga jangka panjangnya. Variabel yg diduga menghipnotis penyerapan tenaga kerja sektor industri di Indonesia antara lain, PDRB, UMP, dan produktivitas energi kerja. contoh yg digunakan artinya regrei data panel bergerak maju menggunakan menggunakan GMM Arellano-Bond. berasal yang akan terjadi pemodelan membagikan bahwa secara jangka pendek serta jangka panjang, penyerapan energi kerja sektor industri di Indonesai ditentukan oleh nilai PDRB, UMP, dan ipm Kata kunci: Tenaga Kerja pada Sektor Industri, PDRB, Upah, PDRB, IPM, tenaga IPM  Pendekatan GMM Arellano-Bond.
Co-Authors Agus Ruhimat Ahmad Albar Tanjung Aiyub Yahya Butar Butar, Riyani Dede Ruslan Fajar Solidman Larosa Hasanah Hasanah Herry Daniel Laurent Marpaung Herry Daniel Laurent Marpaung Irsad Irsad Kamaruddin, Ilham Lestari Sihite Lestari Sihite Paidi Paidi Panjaitan, Yosie Gabriela Parangin Angin, Sutejo Rachman, Reza Saeful Sihite, Lestari Subagja, Agus Dedi Sukardi Sukardi Sutejo Parangin Angin Sutejo Perangin Angin Wahyu Ario Pratomo Yosie Gabriela Panjaitan Yosie Gabriela Panjaitan