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Forecasting Freight on Board for Gonggong Export in Batam Using Markov Chain Anggraeni, Andini Setyo; Jabnabillah, Faradiba; Reza, Widya; Cahya Wati, Dia
Jurnal Pijar Mipa Vol. 19 No. 3 (2024): May 2024
Publisher : Department of Mathematics and Science Education, Faculty of Teacher Training and Education, University of Mataram. Jurnal Pijar MIPA colaborates with Perkumpulan Pendidik IPA Indonesia Wilayah Nusa Tenggara Barat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/jpm.v19i3.6534

Abstract

As an archipelagic country, Indonesia has great potential in the fisheries sector. As a free trade zone, Batam is important in exporting fishery products. One of the fishery export products in Batam City is gonggong snails. It is a favorite seafood item in Riau Islands Province and has high economic value. However, previous studies focused more on the content of gonggong snails and their industrial feasibility; there has been no specific research on the analysis of gonggong snail exports in Batam City, even though gonggong snails are one of Batam City's export products. In this research, we will forecast the freight on board (FoB) value for gonggong exports in Batam City using a discrete-time Markov chain with two states: above and below the moving average. There are several types of moving averages, including simple moving averages and weighted moving averages. An initial analysis will determine the moving averages' type and duration following the Gonggong export FOB data in Batam. The data used is the Gonggong export FoB data for Batam City from January 2020 to November 2023. Based on this data, the transition probability matrix will be calculated based on the number of export transitions below and above the Weighted Moving Average 6 (WMA 6) value. Limiting probability from the Markov chain will be used to predict the long-term FOB value of fishery product exports up to steady-state conditions. It was found that steady-state conditions would be reached after 17 months, with a probability of FOB exports below WMA6 of 55.06% and FOB exports above WMA6 of 44.94%.
Analisis Jumlah Tindak Pidana di Sumatera Selatan dengan Regresi Data Panel Tahun 2017-2022 Cahya Wati, Dia; Naufal, Naifi; Retnowati, Sri
DEMOS: Journal of Demography, Ethnography and Social Transformation Vol. 3 No. 2 (2023): Journal of Demography, Etnography and Social Transformation
Publisher : LPPM UIN SULTHAN THAHA SAIFUDDIN JAMBI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30631/demos.v3i2.1870

Abstract

Pada tahun 2019, angka kriminalitas di Sumatera Selatan masih tinggi, denganwaktu terjadinya tindak pidana yang terpendek hanya 2 jam. Hal ini menjadi sumberkekhawatiran bagi masyarakat. Kriminalitas merujuk pada perbuatan yang melanggarhukum, yang merugikan korban dan masyarakat dengan mengganggu ketentraman danketertiban. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yangmemengaruhi tingkat kriminalitas di Sumatera Selatan, dengan mempertimbangkanaspek Sumber Daya Manusia seperti indeks pembangunan manusia, angka rata-ratalama sekolah, pengeluaran per kapita, angka harapan hidup, dan luas wilayah. Data inidianalisis menggunakan metode Analisis Regresi Linier. Hasil penelitian menunjukkanbahwa jumlah tindak pidana di Sumatera Selatan dipengaruhi oleh indekspembangunan manusia, angka rata-rata lama sekolah, pengeluaran per kapita, angkaharapan hidup, dan luas wilayah sebesar 78.82%, sementara 21.18% dipengaruhi olehvariabel lain.