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All Journal E-Jurnal Matematika CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Jambura Journal of Mathematics FIBONACCI: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Matematika Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) Jurnal Matematika Integratif Mathematical Sciences and Applications Journal Diophantine Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications

Anita Triska

Departemen Matematika Fakultas MIPA, Universitas Padjadjaran

Author-ID : 605315

Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Social Sciences Transportation

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On The Study of Covid-19 Transmission Using Deterministic and Stochastic Models with Vaccination Treatment and Quarantine Mona Zevika; Anita Triska; Nuning Nuraini; Glenn Lahodny Jr.
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 5 No. 1 (2022)
Publisher : Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2022.5.1.1

In this study, we propose deterministic and stochastic models of the spread of Covid-19 with vaccination and quarantine programs. The model considers the facts that vaccines do not provide full protection, the efficacy of current vaccines only lasts for a limited time, and recovered people could be reinfected. The routine analysis was carried out for the deterministic model, including calculating an expression for the basic reproduction number. The stochastic formulation makes use of a Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC) model. The basic reproduction number from the deterministic model relates to the stochastic model's analysis in producing a formula for the probability of extinction of Covid-19. Furthermore, numerical simulations are carried out to analyze the sensitivity of the dynamical states and the basic reproduction number to the model parameters. An expression for the probability of disease extinction in terms of the model parameters and initial conditions is given. The results of this study suggest that current conditions in Indonesia will lead to a longterm Covid-19 epidemic. One of the efforts to overcome the Covid-19 epidemic is by increasing the provision of vaccines to the susceptible population. However, the number of vaccinated people in the population is not always an ideal control for dealing with the spread of the disease. The vaccine efficacy is also important to reduce the infection. As long as the efficacy is not sufficient to give a good protection to the human population and it lasts only for a short period of time, quarantine is still needed.

Pyramid Population Prediction using Age Structure Model Heni Widayani; Nuning Nuraini; Anita Triska
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 6, No 2 (2020): CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang

Population composition in a country by sex and age-structure often illustrated through the Population Pyramid. In this study, an age-structure model will be constructed to predict the population pyramid shape in the coming year. It is assumed that changes in population are affected by natality and mortality number in each age group, ignoring migration rates. The proposed age structure model formulated as a first-order partial differential equation with the non-negative initial condition. The boundary condition is given by the number of births which is proportional to the number of women at childbearing age. Then, this age structure model implemented utilizing United Nations Data to predict population pyramids of Indonesia, Brazil, Japan, the USA, and Russia. The population pyramid prediction of the five countries shows different characteristics, according to whether it is a developing or developed country. The results of this study indicate that the age structure model can be used to predict the composition of the population in a country in the next few years. Indonesia is predicted to be the highest populated country in 2066, compared to the other four countries. This result can be used as a reference for the government to plan policies and strategies according to age groups to control population explosion in the future.

PENERAPAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING UNTUK MERAMALKAN PRODUKSI DAN KONSUMSI DOMESTIK BERAS DI INDONESIA PUTRI NUR PRASETIA; ANITA TRISKA; JULITA NAHAR
E-Jurnal Matematika Vol 11 No 3 (2022)
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/MTK.2022.v11.i03.p375

Rice is one of the most important commodities in Indonesia since it is one of the staple foods.Therefore, it becomes one of Indonesian government concerns by setting a goal of 46,8 million tons of rice supply in 2024. Despite 29,67% of the population earns their living from agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, the domestic production of rice could not meet its demand many times. Hence, the forecasting of the production and domestic consumption of rice is needed to know whether the domestic production is able to meet the demand. In this study, the rice production and domestic consumption were forecasted using the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method. The DES was chosen due to the pattern of the data shows the trends without seasonality. The accuracy of the forecasting was measured by Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Durbin-Watson statistic test. The yielded forecasts showed that the production rate is lower than the domestic consumption’s so that it would not meet the demand. It was concluded that the DES suitable to be used to forecast production and domestic consumption of rice in Indonesia since its MAPE are 6,48% and 5,91%, respectively. Moreover, the Durbin-Watson statistic showed that there was no autocorrelations on the errors of both data.

Analisis Angka Reproduksi Dasar Model Matematika Penyebaran HIV Melalui Jarum Suntik pada Populasi Pengguna Narkoba Anita Triska; Nurul Gusriani
Jurnal Matematika Integratif Vol 12, No 1: April, 2016
Publisher : Department of Matematics, Universitas Padjadjaran

Penyebaran HIV memiliki kompleksitasnya sendiri, diantarannya masa inkubasi yang lama. Penelitian-penelitian sebelumnya laju penginfeksian diasumsikan konstan, sedangkan laju penginfeksian akan berbeda sesuai dengan strutur populasinya, seperti pada populasi homoseksual, heteroseksual, pengguna narkoba atau populasi dengan kombinasi aktivitas beresiko. Makalah ini membahas tentang model penyebaran HIV melalui jarum suntik pada pengguna narkoba. Fokus utama pada studi ini adalah menentukan laju penginfeksian (force of infection) penyebaran HIV melalui jarum suntik yang tidak konstan pada populasi pengguna narkoba sehingga diperoleh model yang lebih realistis. Dilanjutkan dengan menentukan angka reproduksi dasar sebagai ambang batas terjadinya suatu wabah penyakit. Angka reproduksi dasar tersebut kemudian disimulasikan untuk mendapatkan parameter yang dapat dikontrol agar dapat menekan angka reproduksi dasar tetap berada dibawah ambang batas. Penelitian dilakukan melalui model SIR yang dimodifikasi menjadi model SIA dan analisis matematika sebagai salah satu langkah untuk memahami sebuah fenomena alam. Laju penginfeksian dan angka reproduksi dasar yang diperoleh membawa pada kesimpulan bahwa agar angka reproduksi dasar tetap berada pada ambang batasnya maka populasi pengguna narkoba dibagi pada grup-grup yang cukup banyak.Kata kunci: model matematika HIV, laju penginfeksian, angka reproduksi dasar

Forecasting the Indonesian Coffee Production and Consumption Using the Modified Golden Section Search to Estimate the Smoothing Parameters Triesha Syifahati; Anita Triska; Julita Nahar
Jurnal Matematika Integratif Vol 19, No 1: April 2023
Publisher : Department of Matematics, Universitas Padjadjaran

The Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) and Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) are forecasting methods that require two and three smoothing parameters, respectively. Smoothing parameters are often determined through a trial and error process that is not really efficient since many experiments need to be done. Therefore, in this study, a smoothing parameter estimation algorithm is conducted in the form of the modified Golden Section Search (GSS) to obtain the optimal smoothing parameters from the DES and TES methods. Forecasting is carried out on production, domestic consumption, and export consumption data of Indonesian coffee, which is one of the leading agricultural sub-sector commodities. The data is obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Indonesia. The smoothing parameters obtained by applying the modified GSS are used to forecast production and domestic consumption data using the DES method, while the forecasting of the export consumption data is done with the TES method. All of the MAPE values are less than 20% which indicates that the smoothing parameters obtained by using the modified GSS are able to perform good forecasting. The results show that coffee production in Indonesia cannot meet its demand until 2024 since the total coffee consumption exceeds the production.

PENERAPAN TRANFORMASI LINEAR DALAM RUANG LINGKUP BAHASA PADA ERA DIGITAL Zaki Maulana Hidayat; Sisilia Sylviani; Anita Triska
FIBONACCI: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Matematika Vol 9, No 1 (2023): FIBONACCI: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Matematika
Publisher : Fakultas Ilmu Pendidikan Universitas Muhammadiyah Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24853/fbc.9.1.1-12

Transformasi linier merupakan topik yang sering ditemui dalam kajian Aljabar. Beberapa peneliti dalam bidang matematika menggunakan transformasi linear dalam penelitian mereka. Penggunaan transformasi linear tersebut tidak hanya diterapkan dan diteliti dalam bidang matematika saja, tetapi di bidang lain juga dapat diterapkan. Salah satunya adalah penerapan dalam bidang bahasa. Pada paper ini dijelaskan mengenai beberapa penelitian dalam bidang tersebut yang menggunakan transformasi linear pada penelitiannya, Dari penelitian tersebut, para peneliti mengungkapkan bahwa penggunaan transformasi linear dapat memudahkan peneliti dalam menganalisis kesamaan makna kata dari vekor representasinya serta penerapannya lebih efektif dan efisien dibanding dengan metode yang lain

The dynamics of prisoner population model in Indonesia with a rehabilitation regulation for drug users to overcome prison overcapacity issue Anita Triska; Muhammad Haekal Dzulfikar; Asep K. Supriatna
Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) Volume 4, Issue 1: June 2023
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jjbm.v4i1.18898

This paper discusses about a mathematical model of the prisoner population with a new regulation regarding punishments to the drug users in an effort to overcome the prison overcapacity issue in Indonesia. This new regulation is launched by the Indonesia government after a fact about overcapacity of prison in Indonesia is revealed through a fire incident in a prison on 8 September 2021 that causes 41 people died and a number of people were injured. Besides, prisons in Indonesia are mostly occupied by the drug user. The model is constructed by using a compartmental model approach. The stability analysis of the equilibrium points is carried out along with its existence conditions. The analytical studies are equipped by calculate the basic reproduction number. Furthermore, this study is also equipped by numerical simulations with some scenarios. The results of this study confirm that the effect of the new regulation is able to reduce overcrowded issue in prisons in Indonesia. However, if it compare to recent prison capacity, this new regulation has not been able to suppress the number of prisoner below to its capacity limit in the short time so that it is needed to consider other solutions as the additional regulation and policy

MODEL PENYEBARAN KRIMINALITAS DENGAN PENGARUH KEBIJAKAN KRIMINAL SEBAGAI PENCEGAHAN PADA SITUASI KRISIS EKONOMI Muhammad Audri Indraputra; Anita Triska; Nursanti Anggriani
Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Vol. 4 No. 2 (2023): Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistik
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/lb.v4i2.334

Crime is behavior that violates the law and social norms so that people oppose it which can occur due to environmental factors, namely the imitation of criminality and individual economic factors, can be prevented by criminal policies, and can increase in certain situations, one of which is the economic crisis. The mathematical model of the spread of crime is built by considering individual economic factors which are implemented as work and non-work compartments, crime imitation factors which are implemented as the rate of crime affected, and criminal policy factors as an obstacle to crime. Based on the model that has been built, the equilibrium point and its stability, the basic reproduction rate, population dynamics, and conditions that can describe the influence of criminal policy and the economic crisis on the crime rate are determined. The model has one non-endemic equilibrium point and one non-negative endemic equilibrium point which can reach a stable condition. Numerical simulations show that population dynamics using parameter values and initial compartments obtained from various sources are stable towards an endemic equilibrium point, criminal policies can reduce crime rates, and economic crises can increase crime rates.

PERAMALAN JUMLAH KEDATANGAN WISATAWAN ASING BANDARA DI BALI DAN BANTEN MENGGUNAKAN METODE HOLT-WINTER ADITIF DAN MULTIPLIKATIF RAIHANAH RAIHANAH; ANITA TRISKA; NURSANTI ANGGRIANI
E-Jurnal Matematika Vol 12 No 4 (2023)
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/MTK.2023.v12.i04.p427

Tourism is an important sector in the Indonesian economy. One of the benchmarks for the development of the tourism sector is the number of foreign tourist arrivals to Indonesia. Forecasting the number of foreign tourist arrivals is needed so that actors contributing to the tourism sector can optimize their service efforts. It is necessary to forecast the number of foreign tourist arrivals, especially through the arrival gate at I Gusti Ngurah Rai airport (Bali) and Soekarno-Hatta airport (Banten) as one of the main arrival gates most visited by foreign tourists. This study aims to predict the number of foreign tourist arrivals through the airport by comparing the accuracy of the Holt-Winter's additive and multiplicative method. MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) and the Durbin Watson statistical test are used and to measure the accuracy of the forecast value against the original data. Overall, the MAPE value and Durbin Watson statistical test result indicate that the additive and multiplicative approaches are good enough to be used. However, judging from the smallest MAPE value, Holt-Winter multiplicative is better used in processing data on the number of foreign tourist arrivals at both I Gusti Ngurah Rai and Soekarno-Hatta airports with MAPE values ??of 7.57% and 6.80% respectively.

Pemilihan Operator Seluler Untuk Paket Internet di Kalangan Mahasiswa Universitas Padjadjaran dengan Metode Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Zainurrisalah, Fathulhanif Salman; Supian, Sudradjat; Triska, Anita
Jurnal Matematika Integratif Vol 20, No 2: Oktober 2024
Publisher : Department of Matematics, Universitas Padjadjaran

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24198/jmi.v20.n2.58725.217-232

Sejak awal pandemi virus corona pada tahun 2020, Indonesia telah mengalami banyak perubahan dalam pola aktivitas masyarakat. Pembatasan kegiatan tatap muka memaksa banyak orang untuk bekerja, belajar, dan berbelanja dari rumah, yang secara signifikan meningkatkan kebutuhan akan akses internet. Kondisi ini mendorong operator seluler untuk bersaing menawarkan layanan internet yang beragam guna menarik konsumen dengan berbagai karakteristik seperti kualitas jaringan, stabilitas koneksi, kecepatan, dan harga. Adanya berbagai pilihan ini menciptakan kesulitan bagi konsumen dalam menentukan layanan internet yang paling sesuai. Penelitian ini menyajikan metode Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) sebagai solusi dalam pemilihan operator seluler untuk paket internet di kalangan mahasiswa Universitas Padjadjaran. Telkomsel, XL Axiata, Indosat Ooredoo, dan Tri diidentifikasi sebagai alternatif dengan kriteria harga, kuota, kecepatan akses internet, dan cakupan sinyal. Data dikumpulkan melalui penyebaran kuesioner kepada mahasiswa beberapa fakultas, yaitu FMIPA, FEB, FKEP, dan FTIP Universitas Padjadjaran sebanyak 281 responden. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa Telkomsel adalah alternatif prioritas dan cakupan sinyal merupakan kriteria utama dalam memilih operator seluler.

Co-Authors Alamsyah, Alifa Raida Andzar Tsaqif Laksana Asep K. Supriatna Edi Kurniadi Ellena, Siti Aizal Yasni Glenn Lahodny Jr. Hadi, Muthia Nurul Heni Widayani Hidayat, Zaki Maulana Julita Nahar Julita Nahar, Julita Laksana, Andzar Tsaqif Lidia H. Y. A. Rudamaga Mona Zevika Muhammad Audri Indraputra Muhammad Haekal Dzulfikar Nuning Nuraini Nursanti Anggriani Nurul Gusriani, Nurul PUTRI NUR PRASETIA Raihanah Raihanah Sani, Jihan Gita Setiawan, Ade Ripki Sisilia Sylviani Supian, Sudradjat Triesha Syifahati Zainurrisalah, Fathulhanif Salman Zaki Maulana Hidayat

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