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All Journal E-Jurnal Matematika CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Jambura Journal of Mathematics FIBONACCI: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Matematika Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) Jurnal Matematika Integratif Mathematical Sciences and Applications Journal Diophantine Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Anita Triska
Departemen Matematika Fakultas MIPA, Universitas Padjadjaran
Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Social Sciences Transportation

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Journal : E-Jurnal Matematika

 1 
PENERAPAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING UNTUK MERAMALKAN PRODUKSI DAN KONSUMSI DOMESTIK BERAS DI INDONESIA PUTRI NUR PRASETIA; ANITA TRISKA; JULITA NAHAR
E-Jurnal Matematika Vol 11 No 3 (2022)
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/MTK.2022.v11.i03.p375

Abstract

Rice is one of the most important commodities in Indonesia since it is one of the staple foods.Therefore, it becomes one of Indonesian government concerns by setting a goal of 46,8 million tons of rice supply in 2024. Despite 29,67% of the population earns their living from agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, the domestic production of rice could not meet its demand many times. Hence, the forecasting of the production and domestic consumption of rice is needed to know whether the domestic production is able to meet the demand. In this study, the rice production and domestic consumption were forecasted using the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method. The DES was chosen due to the pattern of the data shows the trends without seasonality. The accuracy of the forecasting was measured by Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Durbin-Watson statistic test. The yielded forecasts showed that the production rate is lower than the domestic consumption’s so that it would not meet the demand. It was concluded that the DES suitable to be used to forecast production and domestic consumption of rice in Indonesia since its MAPE are 6,48% and 5,91%, respectively. Moreover, the Durbin-Watson statistic showed that there was no autocorrelations on the errors of both data.
PERAMALAN JUMLAH KEDATANGAN WISATAWAN ASING BANDARA DI BALI DAN BANTEN MENGGUNAKAN METODE HOLT-WINTER ADITIF DAN MULTIPLIKATIF RAIHANAH RAIHANAH; ANITA TRISKA; NURSANTI ANGGRIANI
E-Jurnal Matematika Vol 12 No 4 (2023)
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/MTK.2023.v12.i04.p427

Abstract

Tourism is an important sector in the Indonesian economy. One of the benchmarks for the development of the tourism sector is the number of foreign tourist arrivals to Indonesia. Forecasting the number of foreign tourist arrivals is needed so that actors contributing to the tourism sector can optimize their service efforts. It is necessary to forecast the number of foreign tourist arrivals, especially through the arrival gate at I Gusti Ngurah Rai airport (Bali) and Soekarno-Hatta airport (Banten) as one of the main arrival gates most visited by foreign tourists. This study aims to predict the number of foreign tourist arrivals through the airport by comparing the accuracy of the Holt-Winter's additive and multiplicative method. MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) and the Durbin Watson statistical test are used and to measure the accuracy of the forecast value against the original data. Overall, the MAPE value and Durbin Watson statistical test result indicate that the additive and multiplicative approaches are good enough to be used. However, judging from the smallest MAPE value, Holt-Winter multiplicative is better used in processing data on the number of foreign tourist arrivals at both I Gusti Ngurah Rai and Soekarno-Hatta airports with MAPE values ??of 7.57% and 6.80% respectively.
Co-Authors Alamsyah, Alifa Raida Andzar Tsaqif Laksana Asep K. Supriatna Diah Chaerani Dzulfikar, Muhammad Haekal Edi Kurniadi Ellena, Siti Aizal Yasni Glenn Lahodny Jr. Hadi, Muthia Nurul Haq, Fadiah Hasna Nadiatul Heni Widayani Hidayat, Zaki Maulana Julita Nahar Julita Nahar, Julita Laksana, Andzar Tsaqif Lidia H. Y. A. Rudamaga Mona Zevika Muhammad Audri Indraputra Nuning Nuraini Nursanti Anggriani Nurul Gusriani, Nurul PUTRI NUR PRASETIA Raihanah Raihanah Sani, Jihan Gita Setiawan, Ade Ripki Sisilia Sylviani Supian, Sudradjat Triesha Syifahati Zainurrisalah, Fathulhanif Salman Zaki Maulana Hidayat