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All Journal STATISTIKA Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Manajemen Indonesia
Indah Lestari
Universitas Negeri Jakarta
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics

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Pemodelan ARIMA Intervensi Untuk Meramalkan Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia Indah Lestari; Bagus Sumargo; Faroh Ladayya
Statistika Vol. 22 No. 2 (2022): Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Islam Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29313/statistika.v22i2.1593

Abstract

Harga minyak mentah dunia mengalami penurunan yang sangat signifikan karena adanya suatu intervensi, yaitu pandemi COVID-19. Peramalan harga minyak mentah dunia penting dilakukan untuk memberikan informasi terkait fluktuasi harga minyak mentah karena adanya ketidakpastian harga akibat adanya intervensi. Metode untuk memodelkan dan meramalkan data deret waktu yang dipengaruhi oleh intervensi adalah metode analisis intervensi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendapatkan model intervensi terbaik dan hasil peramalan harga minyak mentah dunia menggunakan model intervensi terbaik. Tahapan analisis intervensi yaitu membagi data menjadi data sebelum intervensi dan data saat intervensi sampai data terakhir. Data sebelum intervensi digunakan untuk pemodelan ARIMA. Sisaan pada model ARIMA berdasarkan data sebelum intervensi tersebut digunakan untuk identifikasi orde intervensi. Selanjutnya adalah melakukan pendugaan parameter, uji diagnostik, dan melakukan peramalan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model intervensi terbaik adalah model intervensi ARIMA(0,2,2), yang artinya pembedaan data harga minyak mentah dunia dilakukan sebanyak 2 kali, data suatu periode dipengaruhi oleh nilai sisaan 2 periode sebelumnya, serta dipengaruhi oleh orde intervensi b=0, s=0, r=1. Hasil peramalan harga minyak mentah dunia menggunakan model intervensi terbaik menghasilkan harga minyak mentah dunia yang cenderung konstan dengan harga berkisar antara 78 sampai 86 dollar AS per barel dengan MAPE yaitu 9,29%, artinya kemampuan model dalam melakukan peramalan sangat baik. Kata Kunci: Model intervensi, ARIMA, harga minyak mentah dunia, COVID-19
Pengaruh Motivasi Belajar, Dukungan Keluarga dan Campus Visit terhadap Keputusan Melanjutkan Studi ke Perguruan Tinggi pada Siswa Kelas XII SMA Negeri Jakarta Utara Tahun Ajaran 2025/2026 Indah Lestari; Herlitah Herlitah; Saparuddin Saparuddin
Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Manajemen Indonesia Vol. 2 No. 1 (2026): JANUARI -JUNI
Publisher : Indo Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.63822/6spa3f83

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of learning motivation, family support, and campus visit on the decision to continue studies to higher education among twelfth-grade students of public senior high schools in North Jakarta in the academic year 2025/2026. The transition from secondary to higher education is a critical stage for students, yet many students face uncertainty in determining their educational future. This research employs a quantitative approach with an explanatory correlational design. Data were collected through a survey using questionnaires distributed to 220 respondents selected through multistage sampling techniques, including purposive sampling and proportionate stratified random sampling. The analysis was conducted using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) with SmartPLS 4 software. The results indicate that learning motivation has a positive and significant effect on the decision to continue studies to higher education, while campus visit also has a positive and significant effect. However, family support has a positive but not significant effect on the decision to continue studies. The coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.593 indicates that 59.3% of the variation in the decision to continue studies can be explained by the three independent variables, while the remaining 40.7% is explained by other variables outside the research model. These findings provide important implications for schools, particularly in strengthening career guidance and counseling services, as well as facilitating campus visit activities to assist students in making more informed and well-planned decisions about their higher education choices.
Co-Authors Bagus Sumargo Faroh Ladayya H Herlitah Saparuddin Saparuddin