Mochamad Arif Affandi
Universitas Negeri Surabaya

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Analisis Wacana Kritis atas Opini Publik terhadap Kinerja Pemerintah dalam Survei Kawula17 2025 Nova Azzahra Ramadhani; Mochamad Arif Affandi; Fransiscus Xaverius Sri Sadewo
Takuana: Jurnal Pendidikan, Sains, dan Humaniora Vol. 4 No. 4 (2026): Takuana (January-March)
Publisher : MAN 4 Kota Pekanbaru

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56113/takuana.v4i4.315

Abstract

Public opinion surveys are widely used as indicators of governmental legitimacy. However, quantitative approaches often fail to capture the complex meanings embedded in public responses. This study highlights the importance of discourse analysis in interpreting survey data, particularly amid declining public trust in the Indonesian government during Q2 2025. This research applies Norman Fairclough’s Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) to secondary data from the Kawula17 Q2 2025 Survey. The analysis follows three dimensions: textual, discursive practice, and social practice, focusing on issues of corruption, economy, and gender legislation (RUU PPRT). Public opinion emerges as a discursive construction marked by ambivalence, symbolic resistance, and critique of power relations. Expressions like “death penalty for corruptors” and “the little people are suffering” reflect tensions between state narratives and citizens’ lived realities. Public opinion is not neutral; it is shaped by social structures and dominant ideologies. CDA offers a critical lens to reinterpret political surveys as socially embedded texts.
Incumbent Performance Dissatisfaction Influences Blank-Box Voting in the 2024 Gresik Election Shine Kurdiati Miare; Fatkah Ainurrofiah; Budi Santoso; Mochamad Arif Affandi
Journal of Religion, Local Politics, and Law Vol. 2 No. 3 (2026): Institutional and Social Transformation in Contemporary Society
Publisher : PT Pro Panoramic Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.64595/jrlpl.v2n3.p291-310

Abstract

The high proportion of blank votes in the 2024 regional election in Gresik Regency reflects an important phenomenon in local democratic participation, particularly in uncontested elections. Despite the increasing occurrence of blank voting in Indonesia, empirical evidence explaining how public dissatisfaction with incumbent performance influences this behavior remains limited. This study aims to examine the effect of public dissatisfaction with incumbent performance on the propensity to vote for the blank box. A quantitative research design was employed using data from 150 respondents selected through quota sampling from five sub districts Sidayu, Bungah, Manyar, Ujungpangkah, and Kebomas which recorded the highest proportion of blank votes in the election. Data were collected through structured Likert-scale questionnaires and analyzed using multinomial logistic regression. The findings indicate that the model demonstrates a good fit, with a significant Omnibus Test (p < 0.001) and Pearson and Deviance statistics exceeding 0.05. Public dissatisfaction has a statistically significant effect on the likelihood of voting for the blank box (Exp(B) = 1.687, p < 0.001). These findings extend rational choice theory by demonstrating that, in uncontested local elections, blank voting represents a rational mechanism of electoral accountability rather than merely political apathy. This study provides empirical evidence that public evaluations of incumbent performance constitute a significant determinant of blank-box voting in single-candidate local elections, thereby enriching the understanding of electoral behavior in uncontested democratic contests. The study contributes to the literature on electoral behavior by highlighting public performance evaluation as an important determinant of blank voting in local elections.