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Spatial Analysis of Pneumonia in Toddlers on Sumatra Island Using Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression Ruth Natasya Sepbrina Br Lumban Gaol; Maura Bintang Potenza; Nur Faqih Ihsan; Galang Ali Fazral Pratama; Sarni Maniar Berliana
Joint International Conference 2026: The 2nd Indonesia Forum on Labour and Productivity (IFLP) & The 4th International Conference on Data Science and Official Statistics (ICDSOS) Vol. 2025 No. 1 (2025): Proceedings of 2025 International Conference on Data Science and Official St
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/icdsos.v2025i1.500

Abstract

Pneumonia remains a leading cause of mortality among toddlers (aged 1 to less than 5 years) in Indonesia, with notable spatial disparities across Sumatra Island. This study examines factors influencing pneumonia incidence in toddlers using a Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (GWPR) model to capture local variations in the effects of community health centers, complete basic immunization coverage, exclusive breastfeeding rates, and low birth weight (LBW) prevalence. Analyzing 2022 cross-sectional data from 154 districts/cities on Sumatra, the global Poisson regression model confirmed all predictors as statistically significant at the 5% level. The GWPR model with a fixed Gaussian kernel outperformed the global model, revealing five regional clusters with distinct combinations of significant variables. The dominant cluster (140 locations) showed significant effects from all predictors, while smaller clusters (14 locations) highlighted localized patterns, such as reliance on immunization and breastfeeding in rural areas like Rejang Lebong. These findings underscore the need for tailored interventions to address regional disparities in toddler pneumonia.
Spatial Determinants of CO2 Emissions on Java Island: STIRPAT Framework and SAR Model M. Hafidz Habibullah; Bunga Musva Cotva; Hafidh Rean Putra; Agustin Kurnia Sari; Sarni Maniar Berliana
Joint International Conference 2026: The 2nd Indonesia Forum on Labour and Productivity (IFLP) & The 4th International Conference on Data Science and Official Statistics (ICDSOS) Vol. 2025 No. 1 (2025): Proceedings of 2025 International Conference on Data Science and Official St
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/icdsos.v2025i1.525

Abstract

Java Island, Indonesia’s economic and population hub, faces intense environmental pressure from CO2 concentration, exhibiting strong spatial dependence across its 118 regencies and cities. This study examines the determinants of CO2 concentration and their spillover effects using an extended STIRPAT framework and a Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) model, applied to 2024 secondary data from BPS-Statistics Indonesia and Google Earth Engine (GEE). The SAR model outperforms OLS, with lower AIC (364.8979 vs. 489.0563) and BIC (387.0634 vs. 508.4551), confirming spatial effects. In SAR models, interpretation relies on decomposing estimated coefficients into direct effects (impacts within a region) and indirect or spillover effects (impacts transmitted to neighboring regions), allowing a more nuanced understanding of spatial influence. Population density and manufacturing sector GRDP increase emissions, while NDVI and HDI reduce them. Population density and manufacturing sector GRDP increase concentration, while NDVI and HDI reduce them. Notably, indirect (spillover) effects consistently surpass direct effects, driven by commuter flows in urban hubs like Jabodetabek and industrial pollution spillovers. These findings inform regional climate strategies, emphasizing cross-regency reforestation and emission controls to support Indonesia’s Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (ENDC) goals.
Unveiling Regional Disparities in Indonesia: Clustering Provinces by Development Indicators Akbarrullah Yusman; Sarni Maniar Berliana
Joint International Conference 2026: The 2nd Indonesia Forum on Labour and Productivity (IFLP) & The 4th International Conference on Data Science and Official Statistics (ICDSOS) Vol. 2025 No. 1 (2025): Proceedings of 2025 International Conference on Data Science and Official St
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/icdsos.v2025i1.645

Abstract

Indonesia’s pursuit of sustainable development—integrating economic, social, and environmental dimensions—remains challenged by persistent regional disparities. In 2022, only four of seven national priority indicators were achieved, while 21 provinces failed to meet more than three targets. To capture these disparities more precisely, this study applies hierarchical and non-hierarchical clustering to classify 34 provinces based on seven development indicators. The comparative approach enhances robustness: hierarchical clustering reveals inter-provincial linkages, while non-hierarchical clustering improves internal consistency. Validation tests identify Ward’s method as optimal, yielding four distinct clusters. Cluster 1 includes four eastern provinces with multidimensional inequality—high stunting (31.43%), early marriage (10.37%), and low literacy (36.44%). Cluster 2 comprises 20 provinces with structural stagnation, marked by persistent stunting (24.80%) and reliance on primary sectors. Cluster 3 consists of seven industrial provinces with strong economic performance (manufacturing 33.59% of GDP) and improving social indicators. Cluster 4 includes three service-based provinces excelling in social outcomes—lowest stunting (13.07%) and highest literacy (78.46%)—but facing environmental challenges. These findings highlight the urgency of region-specific, evidence-based policy interventions to promote equitable and sustainable development.
Bantuan Sosial dan Status Kemiskinan Rumah Tangga di Indonesia: Analisis Asosiasi dengan Partial Proportional Odds Model Nadiya Raihanah; Sarni Maniar Berliana; Rahmat Hidayat
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2735

Abstract

Poverty is a complex global issue and the primary target of the first Sustainable Development Goal (SDG), which aims to end all forms of poverty. Nevertheless, the proportion of poor people worldwide, including in Indonesia, remains at an alarming level. This study aims to identify the determinants of household poverty status in Indonesia in 2023, categorized into five groups: extremely poor, poor, nearly poor, vulnerable poor, and non-poor. The analysis uses data from the March 2023 National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas) and applies the Partial Proportional Odds Model (PPOM). The results show that poverty status is influenced by demographic and economic characteristics as well as participation in social protection programs. A key finding is that participation in most social assistance programs, such as PKH and BPNT, is associated with poorer status, reflecting program targeting accuracy rather than program failure. In conclusion, social protection policies must be strengthened to be more effective in improving household welfare.
Determinan Rumah Tangga dengan Akses Hunian Layak di Pulau Jawa Tahun 2022: Penerapan Spatial Error Model Andi Muh. Zulfadhil Zareka; Rizky Saputra; Sun Asi Gabriella Sinaga; Wahyuningtyas Yudha Sarjani; Sarni Maniar Berliana
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2842

Abstract

Inequality in access to adequate housing is a structural issue that reflects socio-economic disparities between regions. This study aims to analyze the spatial patterns and factors influencing the percentage of households with access to adequate housing across 118 regencies/cities in Java Island in 2022. Using secondary data and spatial regression methods, the study identifies the Spatial Error Model (SEM) as the best model to explain the relationships between variables. The analysis reveals significant spatial autocorrelation and meaningful effects from population density, average years of schooling, regional government spending, income inequality, and per capita GRDP growth on the percentage of households with adequate housing access. In contrast, the growth of minimum wages does not show a significant effect. These findings highlight the importance of housing policies that are based on spatial characteristics and local conditions in order to reduce interregional disparities.