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All Journal Dinamika Ekonomi - Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Jurnal EK dan BI ECONOMIST: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis
Gresia Septina Sitohang
Universitas Negeri Medan
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science Social Sciences Other

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PENGARUH INFLASI DAN KURS TERHADAP INVESTASI DI PROVINSI SUMATERA UTARA PADA TAHUN 2001-2022 GRESIA SEPTINA SITOHANG; Muhammad Aldi Akbar; FEROZI RAMDANA IRSYAD; ANGELINA ROLAS OLIVIA NAIBAHO; JONATAN MARBUN; FILJA AZKIAH SIREGAR; JOKO SUHARIANTO
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis (EK dan BI) Vol 7 No 1 (2024)
Publisher : Politeknik Bisnis Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37600/ekbi.v7i1.1389

Abstract

North Sumatra is one of the provinces in Indonesia that has significant investment potential. There are numerous factors that deeply influence investment within the region. One vital component in driving the economic growth of a country is investment, which is crucial for increasing employment opportunities and income for the residents of North Sumatra Province. However, in recent years, the investment level in North Sumatra has experienced fluctuations. One suspected root cause of these fluctuations is the inflation rate and exchange rate. The research methodology employed in this study involves collecting data on inflation and exchange rates occurring in North Sumatra Province over a specified period. Subsequently, the data will be quantitatively analyzed using multiple linear regression method with the assistance of statistical data processing tool Eviews 9, yielding an R-squared value of 0.83. In other words, the inflation and exchange rate variables contribute 83% to the investment level in North Sumatra Province, with an additional 17% of variance not accounted for in this study. The research findings indicate that the exchange rate has a positive and significant impact, while inflation has a negative and significant impact on investment in North Sumatra Province during the period from 2001 to 2022. Keywords: Investment, Exchange Rate, Inflation, North Sumatra
Analisis Uang Beredar Sebagai Katalisator Antara Kemiskinan Dan Peningkatan Ipm Tahun 2011-2023 Di Indonesia Ainur Oktania; Dwi Silfani; Gresia Septina Sitohang; Frandika Situmorang; Muhammad Aldi Akbar
Dinamika Ekonomi: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol 17 No 2 (2024): DINAMIKA EKONOMI Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol.17 no.2 September 2024
Publisher : Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Ekonomi Nasional (STIENAS) Banjarmasin

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53651/jdeb.v17i2.521

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the direct and indirect effects of the percentage of poverty and money supply (M1) on the Human Development Index (HDI) in Indonesia using the path analysis method on time series data for the period 2011-2023. The independent variables analyzed are the percentage of poverty and money supply, while HDI is the dependent variable. The data used was obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and related official government publications. To ensure the validity of the model, classical assumption tests were conducted, including normality, autocorrelation, and heteroscedasticity tests. The results of the analysis show that poverty percentage has a significant negative effect on HDI, both directly and through money supply, while money supply has a significant positive effect on HDI. These findings indicate that poverty reduction and efficient money supply management are crucial to improving the quality of human development in Indonesia. The proposed policy implications include the implementation of more integrated fiscal and monetary policies to promote inclusive and sustainable economic growth.
ANALISIS HUBUNGAN KAUSALITAS CADANGAN DEVISA, KURS, DAN BI RATE DI INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST Gresia Septina Sitohang; Joko Suharianto
ECONOMIST: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol. 3 No. 2 (2026): April 2026
Publisher : CV Sentra Nusa Connection

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.63545/economist.v3i2.226

Abstract

Penelitian ini menganalisis hubungan kausalitas antara Cadangan Devisa, Kurs, dan BI Rate di Indonesia. Menggunakan data bulanan Januari 2009–Desember 2024 dari CEIC, Kementerian Perdagangan, dan Bank Indonesia, metode yang digunakan adalah Uji Kausalitas Granger setelah uji stasioneritas ADF dan pemilihan lag optimal AIC. Hasil menunjukkan tiga temuan utama. Pertama, terdapat kausalitas satu arah dari Kurs ke Cadangan Devisa (prob. 0,0254), artinya pergerakan nilai tukar memengaruhi cadangan devisa. Kedua, terdapat kausalitas satu arah dari BI Rate ke Cadangan Devisa (prob. 0,0342), menunjukkan kebijakan suku bunga berdampak pada cadangan devisa melalui aliran modal. Ketiga, ditemukan kausalitas dua arah antara Kurs dan BI Rate (prob. 0,0102 dan 0,0333), mencerminkan interaksi timbal balik antara stabilitas nilai tukar dan kebijakan moneter. Kesimpulannya, Kurs dan BI Rate saling memengaruhi secara erat, sementara Cadangan Devisa lebih berperan sebagai variabel yang merespons dinamika kedua variabel tersebut.
Co-Authors Ainur Oktania ANGELINA ROLAS OLIVIA NAIBAHO Dwi Silfani FEROZI RAMDANA IRSYAD FILJA AZKIAH SIREGAR Frandika Situmorang JONATAN MARBUN Muhammad Aldi Akbar