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All Journal Jurnal Inotera Basis : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika
Indriasri Raming
Mulawarman University
Computer Science & IT Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering

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SEIR Epidemic Model of the Spread of Tuberculosis in Samarinda City with the Addition of Vaccination Parameters Indriasri Raming; Andi Nafa Nurfadillah; Ersya Nanda Aulia; Muhammad Rafiq; Julia
Jurnal Inotera Vol. 9 No. 1 (2024): January-June 2024
Publisher : LPPM Politeknik Aceh Selatan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31572/inotera.Vol9.Iss1.2024.ID323

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is a contagious, dangerous disease that infects the human body through the respiratory tract. The city of Samarinda itself is the city with the second highest rate of tuberculosis transmission in East Kalimantan. The aim of this research is to build a SEIR mathematical model of the spread of tuberculosis, analyze the stability of the model, and simulate the model. This research uses the Runge-Kutta method, which has high accuracy in estimating solutions and is relatively stable. This data is secondary data obtained through BPS as well as articles from previous researchers. The results of the research showed that the percentage of increase in the spread of the virus in the susceptible population (S) during the first week was 2,048%, then the 4th week to the 100th day decreased by approximately 164,100%, then the percentage of the population that was exposed but did not spread it (E) decreased in the first week, namely 34,525%, then in the 4th week to the 100th day there was a very significant decrease, namely 7,600%, then the percentage of the population infected and infectious (I) in the first week rose to 19,138%, then in the 4th week to the 2nd week -100 experienced a decrease of approximately 716,900%, and finally, the percentage of the population who recovered in the first week began to increase due to the very influential vaccine, namely increasing by 26,860%, then the 4th week to the 100th week also experienced a significant increase, namely by 81.681%.
Prediksi Jumlah Penduduk Kota Balikpapan Berdasarkan Jenis Kelamin dengan Metode Logistik dan Eksponensial Indriasri Raming; Ayu Risma Agustina; Dhita Putri Meirylia; Dian Selasih; Trie Andini Nur Ashari
Basis : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 4 No. 2 (2025): BASIS: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Mulawarman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30872/xxs5wj70

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membandingkan akurasi model logistik dan model eksponensial dalam memprediksi jumlah penduduk kota Balikpapan berdasarkan jenis kelamin. Kota Balikpapan, yang merupakan pusat industri utama di Kalimantan Timur, mengalami peningkatan jumlah penduduk yang signifikan akibat pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pengaruh proyek Ibu Kota Nusantara (IKN). Model Logistik digunakan untuk memprediksi pertumbuhan populasi dengan memperhitungkan keterbatasan sumber daya lingkungan, sedangkan model eksponensial mengasumsikan pertumbuhan populasi yang tidak terbatas dengan laju tetap. Data jumlah penduduk yang digunakan berasal dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) untuk periode 2020 hingga 2023, dan proyeksi dilakukan hingga tahun 2025. Penelitian ini menggunakan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) untuk mengukur tingkat akurasi dari masing-masing model. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model eksponensial lebih akurat dalam memprediksi jumlah penduduk berjenis kelamin laki-laki dengan proyeksi MAPE sebesar 0,675%, sementara model logistik memberikan hasil yang lebih baik dalam memprediksi jumlah penduduk Perempuan dengan proyeksi MAPE sebesar 1,69%. Hasil penelitian ini memberikan wawasan mengenai karakteristik pertumbuhan penduduk di Balikpapan dan implikasinya terhadap perencanaan kota, terutama terkait dengan kebutuhan sumber daya dan infrastruktur. Selain itu, peneliti menyoroti pentingnya memilih model prediksi yang tepat untuk mendukung pengambilan keputusan yang lebih baik dalam merespon dinamika pertumbuhan penduduk di kota-kota yang sedang berkembang seperti Balikpapan.
Co-Authors Andi Nafa Nurfadillah Ayu Risma Agustina Dhita Putri Meirylia Dian Selasih Ersya Nanda Aulia Julia Muhammad Rafiq Trie Andini Nur Ashari