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All Journal Jurnal Informatika Al Qalam: Jurnal Ilmiah Keagamaan dan Kemasyarakatan JIPI (Jurnal Ilmiah Penelitian dan Pembelajaran Informatika) Technologia: Jurnal Ilmiah Jurnal Mnemonic KLIK: Kajian Ilmiah Informatika dan Komputer International Journal Software Engineering and Computer Science (IJSECS)
Marini, Lion Ferdinand
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Computer Science & IT Education Social Sciences

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Journal : KLIK: Kajian Ilmiah Informatika dan Komputer

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Analisis Data Time Series Untuk Prediksi Harga Komoditas Pangan Menggunakan Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Sihombing, Ester Ivo; Suhendra, Christian Dwi; Marini, Lion Ferdinand
KLIK: Kajian Ilmiah Informatika dan Komputer Vol. 4 No. 6 (2024): Juni 2024
Publisher : STMIK Budi Darma

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30865/klik.v4i6.1863

Abstract

Onions and chilies are two of the many food commodities frequently used by Indonesian people in their daily lives. The high demand in the market leads to price instability, causing prices to fluctuate or remain unstable. This can result in farmers suffering losses when selling their agricultural products. Therefore, forecasting is conducted to predict future prices of onions and chilies. This can provide information on the estimated prices that farmers will set for sale to traders, which is expected to address market price instability. This research aims to obtain the best model from the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) for forecasting the prices of onions and chilies in Manokwari Regency in 2024. The data for this study is sourced from the SP2KP (Market and Basic Needs Monitoring System) website, consisting of price data for red onions, garlic, and bird's eye chilies from January 2016 to December 2023. The best ARIMA models based on the smallest AIC values are ARIMA (2,0,0) with an AIC of 1341.784, ARIMA (3,0,0) with an AIC of 1278.688, and ARIMA (1,0,0) with an AIC of 1466.834 for red onions, garlic, and bird's eye chilies respectively, with RMSE values of 7447.06, 3501.71, and 13787.59 respectively. From these models, the predicted prices of the three commodities in 2024 from January to December are as follows: red onions around Rp 50,000/kg, garlic around Rp 40,000/kg, and bird's eye chilies between Rp 50,000 and Rp 70,000/kg
Co-Authors Albab, Elfan Ulil Christian Dwi Suhendra, Christian Dwi Karubui, Raema Miryam Mahulette, Tiara Yulesia Matiin, Nur Fatimah Sanglise, Marlinda Sarungallo, Ana Sihite, Rina Wati Nurlia Br Sihombing, Ester Ivo Sumendap, Andreas Leonardo Yati, Fatimah Aszhara