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All Journal Socio-Economic and Humanistic Aspects for Township and Industry Journal of Geographical Sciences and Education Jurnal Geografi : Media Informasi Pengembangan dan Profesi Kegeografian
Hasibuan, Muhammad Ansori
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Analysis of Air Temperature Changes in East Nusa Tenggara Province Impacts of Climate Change for the Period 1971-2020 Rafif Firjatullah; Hasibuan, Muhammad Ansori; Aditya Prapanca; Desak Putu Okta Veanti
Socio-Economic and Humanistic Aspects for Township and Industry Vol. 1 No. 3 (2023): Socio-Economic and Humanistic Aspects for Township and Industry
Publisher : Tinta Emas Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59535/sehati.v1i3.156

Abstract

This study aims to analyse temperature changes in NTT Province over the past 50 years, by comparing two periods, namely period I (1971-2000) and period II (1991-2020). Statistical analysis methods were used to examine temperature differences between the two periods, calculate the percentage of temperature change, and present time series graphs of average monthly temperatures. In addition, spatial analysis was conducted to investigate the seasonal temperature changes of December, January, February (DJF); March, April, May (MAM); June, July, August (JJA); and September, October, November (SON) regionally in NTT Province. Temperature data for 50 years was obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data, providing a strong basis for understanding the dynamics of temperature change with a high degree of accuracy. The results of this study show a steady increase in temperature in the 1991-2020 period by 0.894% compared to the 1971-2000 period, with a positive linear regression (0.0407), while the 1971-2000 period shows a less significant increase (0.0188). Spatial analysis shows a seasonal average temperature increase of 0.957°C in the 1991-2020 period. The findings on climate change characterised by temperature changes are expected to be the basis for more effective adaptation and mitigation policies in the face of climate change at the local level. This research is an important step in understanding the dynamics of climate change in vulnerable areas such as NTT Province.
Analysis of Trends in Rainfall Changes Based on ERA5 Reanalysis Data as an Impact of Climate Change in Yogyakarta Province for the Period 1970-2019 Aditya Prapanca; Hasibuan, Muhammad Ansori; Rafif Firjatullah; Desak Putu Okta Veanti
Socio-Economic and Humanistic Aspects for Township and Industry Vol. 1 No. 3 (2023): Socio-Economic and Humanistic Aspects for Township and Industry
Publisher : Tinta Emas Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59535/sehati.v1i3.157

Abstract

This study aims to analyse the trend of rainfall changes in Yogyakarta Special Region (DIY) Province during the period 1970-2019 based on ERA5 reanalysis data. The analysis method of this study involves the use of 50 years of ERA5 rainfall data with high spatial and temporal resolution. The data was processed using the Climate Data Operator (CDO) to obtain monthly average values in five specified periods. In Period I to II, there was an increase in rainfall of +8%, especially in 5 months ranging from 18% to 37%, while the other 7 months showed a downward trend. In Period II to III, rainfall decreased by -7%, mainly in 7 months ranging from 3% to 32%, while the other 5 months showed an increase. In Period III to IV, there was an even greater decrease in rainfall, reaching -8%, accompanied by a decrease in 9 months ranging from 2% to 58%, while the other 3 months showed an increase. In Period IV to V, there was again a significant increase of +12%, mainly during 10 months ranging from 2% to 97%, while the other 2 months showed a decrease. The increase in rainfall mainly occurs in certain time intervals, while the peak of rainfall tends to shift, indicating that climate change has occurred in Yogyakarta.
Analysis of Monthly Temperature Changes Using Reanalysis Data in Yogyakarta for the Period 1970 - 2019 Hasibuan, Muhammad Ansori; Aditya Prapanca; Rafif Firjatullah
Socio-Economic and Humanistic Aspects for Township and Industry Vol. 1 No. 3 (2023): Socio-Economic and Humanistic Aspects for Township and Industry
Publisher : Tinta Emas Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59535/sehati.v1i3.163

Abstract

Weather data is an essential record of various weather elements that serve as the basis for forecasting future weather and climate conditions. Managing large volumes of data requires appropriate methods and applications to process the data to produce accurate results. The data used is reanalysis data taken from Copernicus and its verifiers from observational data. Data processing using CDO tools. The results of this study show the RMSE value between the observation data and the model of 1.24, where the model data tends to be smaller than the observation data. Next, there was an increase in monthly average temperature during the period 1970 - 2019. A significant increase in temperature was seen from the period 1970 - 2019 the lowest average temperature was 26.09oC, 26.36oC, 26.45oC, 26.69oC and 26.96oC respectively. The monthly temperature increase reached 0.87oC during the period 1970 - 2019. This is clear evidence that climate change has occurred, characterized by significant temperature changes in the Yogyakarta region.
Korelasi Spasial antara Indeks AUSMI dan WNPMI dengan Curah Hujan di Jabodetabek Hasibuan, Muhammad Ansori; Amri, Sayful
Journal of Geographical Sciences and Education Vol 3 No 1 (2025): Journal of Geographical Sciences and Education
Publisher : PT. Pubsains Nur Cendekia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.69606/geography.v3i1.203

Abstract

The Australian Summer Monsoon Index (AUSMI) and Western North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI) help analyze the relationship between zonal winds and rainfall. In Jabodetabek, rainfall is affected by monsoons, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Dipole Mode Index (DMI). Understanding rainfall variability helps mitigate flood and drought risks. This study evaluates the relationship between AUSMI, WNPMI, and rainfall in Jabodetabek to support monsoon-based weather prediction. The data used include 850 hPa wind data from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis 1 and rainfall data from GPCP Monthly Analysis, processed monthly. Analysis of 850 hPa zonal winds (2000–2023) shows dominant easterlies (-1 m/s), reducing rainfall, especially in the dry season. The AUSMI index (-2.32 m/s) correlates positively (0.6) with rainfall, indicating its role in moisture transport. Meanwhile, the WNPMI index (-1.32 m/s) shows a negative correlation (-0.7), as high values bring dry air, while low values promote rain cloud formation. These indices reveal distinct monsoonal impacts on Jabodetabek's rainfall patterns.
The Quantifying the Relationship Between ENSO-Induced SST Anomalies and Rainfall Variability in East Java’s Coastal Regions Hasibuan, Muhammad Ansori; Shidiq, Ilham Abdullah; Asifin, Hasyid Agha Zuhairul; Sa’diyah, Qosinatus; Giarno
Jurnal Geografi : Media Informasi Pengembangan dan Profesi Kegeografian Vol. 21 No. 2 (2024): December 2024
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/jg.v21i2.16790

Abstract

El Nino and La Nina events affect the conditions of the rainy season and dry season, especially as a cause of flooding in coastal areas. The North Coast of Java is a coastal area that is prone to disasters due to the influence of sea level anomalies caused by the interaction of the sea and the atmosphere. The northern coast of East Java, which is directly adjacent to the coast, has a high level of vulnerability to tidal flooding or rob disasters. This study aims to examine the effect of the Nino 3.4 index on the El Nino and La Nina phases in influencing rainfall on the northern coast of East Java, especially in the areas of Tuban, Lamongan, Gresik, Surabaya City, Sidoarjo, Pasuruan, Probolinggo, and Situbondo. The method used is a correlation analysis between rainfall parameters and the Nino3.4 index to determine the relationship between parameters. The results of the study on La Nina, El Nino, and Neutral conditions have a negative relationship in almost all research locations with moderate to very low correlation values. This study provides an explanation of the relationship between rainfall and ENSO to flooding events on the northern coast of East Java.
Co-Authors Aditya Prapanca Amri, Sayful Arno, Giarno Asifin, Hasyid Agha Zuhairul Desak Putu Okta Veanti Rafif Firjatullah Sa’diyah, Qosinatus Shidiq, Ilham Abdullah