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This Author published in this journals
All Journal Iqtishoduna: Jurnal Ekonomi Islam Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, Akuntansi Business and Economic Analysis Journal
Ahmad Syahrul Fauzi
Unknown Affiliation
Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Journal : Business and Economic Analysis Journal

 1 
DETERMINANTS OF NON-OIL AND GAS IMPORT VALUE IN INDONESIA Tsani, Luthfi Ibnu; Andryan Setyadharma; Ahmad Syahrul Fauzi; Rasyad Nu'man
Business and Economic Analysis Journal Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): November 2025
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/beaj.v5i2.34071

Abstract

Indonesia continues to rely heavily on imports, particularly non-oil and gas imports, which can threaten economic stability. However, existing studies rarely examine how domestic macroeconomic indicators jointly affect this dependency. This study aims to fill that gap by analyzing the influence of money supply (M2), BI Rate, and inflation rate on the value of non-oil and gas imports in Indonesia. Using monthly time series data from 2020 month 1 to 2023 month 4 (40 observations), this study employs a multiple linear regression model to evaluate both partial and simultaneous effects of the three independent variables. The results show that money supply (M2) and inflation rate have a significant positive impact. In contrast, the BI Rate significantly affects the value of non-oil and gas imports. These findings suggest that increased liquidity and rising inflation may stimulate import activity, while higher interest rates tend to suppress it. The study provides important insights for Bank Indonesia and policymakers in designing macroeconomic strategies to stabilize the import sector. Strengthening the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies is recommended to manage import growth while maintaining economic stability.
Modeling the U.S. Federal Reserve Influence on Indonesia’s Interest Rates: A Markov-Switching Approach Wibowo, Bintang Satrio; Mohammad Aulia Rachman; Ahmad Syahrul Fauzi; Abi Fadillah
Business and Economic Analysis Journal Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): November 2025
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/beaj.v5i2.34287

Abstract

This study aims to examine how changes in the United States’ monetary policy, such as interest rates and GDP, affect Indonesia’s economic policy, as reflected in Indonesia’s interest rate. The study employs the Markov Switching Dynamic Regression (MSDR) method to analyze these effects, using secondary data obtained from the Federal Reserve. This data includes variables for Indonesia’s and the United States’ interest rates, as well as other control variables. The results show that Indonesia’s interest rate, both in expansionary and contractionary conditions, tends to be influenced by the U.S. interest rate. In contrast, the U.S. GDP has no significant effect on Indonesia’s monetary policy. These findings suggest that external financial conditions, particularly those from the United States, have a significant impact on the economic situation of developing countries, including Indonesia.
Co-Authors Abi Fadillah Andryan Setyadharma ARIF NUGROHO Bintang Satrio Wibowo Deky Aji Suseno, Deky Aji Frank Aligarh Mohamad Rahmawan Arifin Mohammad Aulia Rachman Rasyad Nu'Man Shanty Oktavilia Sri Runtiningsih Tsani, Luthfi Ibnu Wibowo, Bintang Satrio