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All Journal Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Jurnal Geografi, Edukasi dan Lingkungan Navigation Physics : Journal of Physics Education Geosfera: Jurnal Penelitian Geografi
Aslam, Fadhil Muhammad
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Astronomy Computer Science & IT Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Physics Social Sciences Other

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Analisis Dinamika Atmosfer Saat Peristiwa Siklon Tropis Paddy di Pulau Jawa Aslam, Fadhil Muhammad
Navigation Physics : Journal of Physics Education Vol 6, No 2 (2024): Navigation Physics : Journal of Physics Education Vol. 6 No. 2 Tahun 2024
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS INDRAPRASTA PGRI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30998/npjpe.v6i2.2743

Abstract

Java Island is the most densely populated island in Indonesia. Consequently, Java Island is also prone to atmospheric disturbances that affect the activities of its inhabitants. One such event was Tropical Cyclone Paddy, which occurred from November 22 to 24, 2021. The aim of this study is to understand and delve into the analysis of atmospheric dynamics during the Tropical Cyclone Paddy event, which subsequently impacts the lives and activities of the people on Java Island. This study utilizes data from various meteorological parameters such as rainfall, zonal and meridional winds, sea surface temperature (SST), humidity, and pressure collected from several sources, namely: Himawari-8 Satellite, GsMap, ECMWF Era 5 hourly data on pressure levels, and NOAA. The research examines the dynamics of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, wind patterns, lower-level moisture transport (LLMT), divergence, surface pressure, and rainfall during the Tropical Cyclone Paddy event. Software such as GrADS 2.2 and Python were used for spatial analysis. The analysis indicates that high SST anomalies, convergence, and high LLMT contributed to the formation of convective clouds, ultimately resulting in high rainfall in the southern regions of Java affected by the cyclone. Over time, there was a decline in these phenomena, marked by a decrease in pressure, wind speed, and rainfall, leading to the normalization of weather conditions in Java Island post-cyclone.
Pergeseran Tipe Iklim di Wilayah NTT Menggunakan Klasifikasi Iklim Schmidth Fergusson Tahun 1971-2020 Aslam, Fadhil Muhammad; Sidiq, Ilham Abdullah; Fauzi, Naufal Kamil
Geosfera: Jurnal Penelitian Geografi Vol 4, No 1 (2025): Geosfera : Jurnal Penelitian Geografi
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/geojpg.v4i1.30905

Abstract

Pergeseran tipe iklim merupakan salah satu indikasi perubahan iklim yang perlu untuk diketahui. Hal ini perlu diketahui untuk menentukan pergeseran tipe iklim yang nantinya berkaitan dengan vegetasi di wilayah NTT pada masa kini dan masa yang akan datang. Analisis dilakukan dengan metode rata-rata hitung dan klasifikasi iklim Schmidt-Fergusson yang membagi bulan ke dalam kategori basah, lembab, dan kering. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan penurunan rata-rata curah hujan bulanan di NTT sepanjang lima dekade. Pada awal periode, curah hujan lebih tinggi, namun seiring waktu terjadi pergeseran ke kondisi yang lebih kering. Klasifikasi Schmidt-Fergusson menunjukkan variasi signifikan, dengan perubahan dari tipe C (iklim lembab) pada dekade 1971-1980, menjadi tipe E dan D yang lebih kering pada dekade 1981-2000, dan kembali ke tipe C pada dekade 2011-2020. Pergeseran ini mencerminkan perbedaan durasi bulan basah dan kering dengan dekade 1971-1980 dan 2011-2020 menunjukkan bulan basah yang lebih panjang. Sebaliknya, dekade 1981-2000 menunjukkan bulan basah yang lebih pendek dan musim kering yang lebih panjang. Dekade 2001-2010 menunjukkan pola yang stabil sebelum kembali ke pola lebih lembab di dekade 2011-2020.
Simulasi Dispersi SO2 Saat Letusan Gunung Marapi Menggunakan Model WRF-Chem Studi Kasus Tanggal 3-5 Desember 2023 Aslam, Fadhil Muhammad; Sayful Amri; Fadhli Aslama Afghani; Imawan Mashuri
Jurnal Geografi, Edukasi dan Lingkungan (JGEL) Vol. 10 No. 1 (2026): Edisi Bulan Januari
Publisher : Pendidikan Geografi Universitas Muhammadiyah Prof. Dr. Hamka

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22236/jgel.v10i1.18543

Abstract

Letusan Gunung Marapi di Sumatra Barat pada 3 Desember 2023 menghasilkan emisi SO₂ yang berpotensi merusak lingkungan dan membahayakan kesehatan masyarakat. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memodelkan dispersi SO₂ akibat letusan tersebut menggunakan model WRF-Chem dengan mempertimbangkan faktor meteorologi. Data meteorologi global FNL dengan resolusi 0,25° x 0,25° digunakan sebagai masukan model, sedangkan validasi dilakukan menggunakan data observasi dari Stasiun GAW Bukit Koto Tabang. Proses simulasi menggunakan parameterisasi RADM2 untuk kimia gas dan YSU untuk planetary boundary layer. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan pola temporal dan spasial yang cukup baik, meskipun dengan nilai korelasi rendah untuk SO₂ (rata-rata 0,175), serta nilai MAE sebesar 1,296 dan RMSE sebesar 3,416 yang menunjukkan kecenderungan underestimate dibandingkan dengan observasi. Sebaliknya, parameter meteorologi khususnya suhu permukaan menunjukkan korelasi yang sangat kuat. Implikasi penelitian ini adalah perlunya validasi hasil model secara lebih komprehensif dengan menambahkan titik observasi untuk evaluasi yang lebih akurat. Selain itu, penelitian lanjutan perlu difokuskan pada pemilihan skema parameterisasi optimal untuk meningkatkan akurasi simulasi dispersi SO₂ secara signifikan
Comparing Monthly Rainfall Prediction in West Sumatra Using SARIMA, ETS, LSTM, and XGBoosting Methods Aslam, Fadhil Muhammad; Afghani, Fadhli Aslama
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol 7, No 1 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijas.v7i1.83187

Abstract

The West Sumatra Province, serving as the trading center on the island of Sumatra, and boasting various attractive tourist destinations, is not immune to incidents of high precipitation leading to hydro-meteorological disasters such as floods and landslides. Therefore, the accurate prediction of monthly rainfall is crucial to minimize the impacts of high precipitation. This research aims to determine the best method for predicting monthly rainfall using data from 1992 to 2022, which can adequately represent its climatological conditions. The results indicate that the Extreme Gradient Boosting method outperforms the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), Exponential Smoothing (ETS), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) methods in West Sumatra Province, represented by three weather observation points from the BMKG (Climatology Station of West Sumatra, Maritime Meteorology Station of Teluk Bayur, and Minangkabau Meteorology Station). This method exhibits the lowest error values and the strongest correlation between predicted and actual data. This is evident from the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values, which are 0.188214535, 0.613823746, and 0.545734162 (unsatisfactory-satisfactory), as well as the obtained correlation values of 0.472103386, 0.795586268, and 0.743002591 (moderate-strong). However, this method is unable to perfectly capture outlier values. These outliers arise as a result of unusual conditions, such as natural disasters or climate changes, and atmospheric phenomena like El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), leading to exceptionally high or low precipitation.
Co-Authors Afghani, Fadhli Aslama Fadhli Aslama Afghani Fauzi, Naufal Kamil Imawan Mashuri Sayful Amri Sidiq, Ilham Abdullah