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All Journal Journal of System and Computer Engineering
Syam, Rahmat Fuady
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Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management

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ARIMA Method Implementation for Electricity Demand Forecasting with MAPE Evaluation Wungo, Supriyadi La; Aziz, Firman; Jeffry, Jeffry; Mardewi, Mardewi; Syam, Rahmat Fuady; Nasruddin, Nasruddin
Journal of System and Computer Engineering Vol 6 No 1 (2025): JSCE: January 2025
Publisher : Universitas Pancasakti

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61628/jsce.v6i1.1666

Abstract

Electricity demand forecasting is critical for efficient energy management and planning. This study focuses on the development and implementation of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method for forecasting electricity demand in South Sulawesi's power system. The evaluation of forecasting accuracy was conducted using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), which measures the percentage error between predicted and actual values. Two experiments were conducted with different ARIMA models: ARIMA(5,1,0) and ARIMA(2,0,1). Results showed that the ARIMA(5,1,0) model achieved a MAPE of 2.15%, while the ARIMA(2,0,1) model performed slightly better with a MAPE of 1.91%, indicating highly accurate predictions. The findings highlight the effectiveness of the ARIMA method in forecasting electricity demand, providing a reliable tool for energy providers to optimize resource allocation and enhance operational efficiency. Future research may explore integrating ARIMA with other advanced methods to further improve forecasting performance.
Co-Authors Firman Aziz Jeffry Jeffry Mardewi, Mardewi Nasruddin Nasruddin Wungo, Supriyadi La