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All Journal BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Journal of Mathematics UNP
Khairani, Yasyfin Ikrima
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Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

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Journal : Journal of Mathematics UNP

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Peramalan Hasil Produksi Padi di Kota Pariaman Menggunakan Metode Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Khairani, Yasyfin Ikrima; Helma, Helma; Winanda, Rara Sandhy
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 10, No 1 (2025): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v10i1.16934

Abstract

Rice is the main commodity that supports national food security and fulfills the consumption needs of most of the Indonesian population. Rice production faces many persistent problems, such as yield fluctuations, pest and disease attacks, and environmental changes. One example is the conversion of agricultural areas into residential and industrial areas, which causes rice production to decline. The purpose of this research is to use the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) approach to develop a forecasting model of Pariaman City’s rice production and forecast the results for 2024 in a monthly period. This applied research uses secondary data obtained from the official website of the Pariaman City Statistics Agency. The best forecasting model results are achieved with the ARMA (1,2) model which produces the smallest MSE value of 96.6965. The model form is $$Y_t = 1.00048Y_{t-1} + \varepsilon_t + 0.443\varepsilon_{t-1} + 0.493\varepsilon_{t-2}$$.
Co-Authors Helma Helma Permana, Fajar Wisga Rara Sandhy Winanda