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All Journal JEPA (Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian dan Agribisnis) Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Manajemen Al-Iqtisodiyah : Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Ekonomi Islam
Tenry Kusuma Astuti
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Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science Social Sciences Other

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PERAMALAN DATA IHSG 2021-2025 DI INDONESIA DENGAN TIME SERIES MODELING AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) Gempati, Abel; Faisal Agymnastiar Rahmad Fradani; Rayya Malik Ibrahim; Tenry Kusuma Astuti; Yusuf Riyan Prasetyo; Laksmi Yustika Devi
JURNAL ILMIAH EKONOMI DAN MANAJEMEN Vol. 3 No. 5 (2025): JURNAL ILMIAH EKONOMI DAN MANAJEMEN (JIEM) Mei
Publisher : CV. KAMPUS AKADEMIK PUBLISING

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61722/jiem.v3i5.4650

Abstract

The real-time and fluctuating movements of the Indonesian Stock Exchange Composite Stock Price Index (Composite Stock Price Index) are often used by stakeholders, especially investors, as a reference in making investment decisions. This research aims to predict the Indonesian Stock Exchange Composite Stock Price Index (IDX Composite Index) using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series model. Based on the results of research that has been carried out, the ARIMA model chosen is ARIMA 1 1 1. Therefore, by using this model forecasts can be made for ten weeks.
Analisis Spasial Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Kemiskinan di Provinsi Jawa Tengah dengan Pendekatan OLS dan GWR Naili Aulia Dewi; Tenry Kusuma Astuti; Salsabila Ayubita Pandega; Destifa Prastiti Kusuma; Rian Ahmadul Huda; Ahmad Adzkiya Abimanyu Daryono
Al-Iqtisodiyah : Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Ekonomi Islam Vol. 1 No. 3 (2025): Ilmu Ekonomi dan Ekonomi Islam
Publisher : Al-Iqtisodiyah : Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Ekonomi Islam

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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the factors influencing poverty levels in Central Java Province using two analytical approaches: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). The OLS approach is used to examine global influences, while the GWR approach captures local variations in influence across regions. The three main variables examined in this study are the Gender Inequality Index (GIG), the Gini Index as an indicator of income inequality, and the Regency/City Minimum Wage (UMK). The analysis results indicate that both income inequality and gender inequality significantly influence poverty levels. However, the degree of influence of each variable varies across regions, as indicated by the GWR analysis. High income inequality and wide gender gaps contribute to high poverty rates, particularly in regions with low UMKs. Therefore, this study recommends inclusive and region-based policies. Some suggested policies include increasing gender equality through women's empowerment, strengthening regulations and implementing UMK policies to suit local needs, and developing social programs based on regional socio-economic conditions. With these steps, it is hoped that social and economic inequality can be reduced, so that the poverty rate in Central Java Province can be reduced significantly and sustainably. Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi tingkat kemiskinan di Provinsi Jawa Tengah dengan menggunakan dua pendekatan analisis, yaitu Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) dan Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). Pendekatan OLS digunakan untuk melihat pengaruh secara global, sementara GWR digunakan untuk menangkap variasi pengaruh antar wilayah secara lokal. Tiga variabel utama yang dikaji dalam penelitian ini adalah Indeks Ketimpangan Gender (IKG), Indeks Gini sebagai indikator ketimpangan pendapatan, serta Upah Minimum Kabupaten/Kota (UMK). Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa baik ketimpangan pendapatan maupun ketimpangan gender memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap tingkat kemiskinan. Namun, tingkat pengaruh masing-masing variabel berbeda di setiap daerah, yang ditunjukkan dengan hasil analisis GWR. Ketimpangan pendapatan yang tinggi dan kesenjangan gender yang lebar berkontribusi terhadap tingginya angka kemiskinan, terutama di wilayah dengan UMK yang rendah. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini merekomendasikan kebijakan yang bersifat inklusif dan berbasis wilayah. Beberapa kebijakan yang disarankan antara lain peningkatan kesetaraan gender melalui pemberdayaan perempuan, penguatan regulasi dan pelaksanaan kebijakan UMK agar sesuai dengan kebutuhan lokal, serta pengembangan program sosial yang berbasis pada kondisi sosial-ekonomi wilayah. Dengan langkah-langkah tersebut, diharapkan ketimpangan sosial dan ekonomi dapat ditekan, sehingga angka kemiskinan di Provinsi Jawa Tengah dapat berkurang secara signifikan dan berkelanjutan.
PENERAPAN PERSAMAAN SIMULTAN PADA ANALISIS HUBUNGAN PRODUKSI PADI DAN KONSUMSI BERAS UNTUK MELIHAT KONDISI KETAHANAN PANGAN STUDI KASUS INDONESIA TAHUN 2024 Rahmad Fradani, Faisal Agymnastiar; Nafisah Zahra; Tenry Kusuma Astuti; Aulia Rahmi Al Muqorobbun; Nindya Faristanti; Laksmi Yustika Devi
Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian dan Agribisnis Vol. 10 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Department of Agricultural Social Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Brawijaya University

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Abstract

This study aims to analyse the simultaneous relationship between rice production and rice consumption in order to review Indonesia's food security conditions in 2024. The method used is Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) in a simultaneous equation model, with secondary data from 34 provinces. The estimation results indicate that there is a simultaneous relationship between rice consumption and rice production. However, only rice consumption has been proven to have a significant effect on rice production. This means that an increase in rice consumption by the public drives an increase in rice production, while an increase in rice production does not directly affect the level of rice consumption by the public. Every 1% increase in consumption will drive rice production up by 0.114765%. Harvest area also has a significant effect, with a 1% increase in harvest area resulting in a 1.078499% increase in production. On the consumption side, only population density has a significant impact, increasing rice consumption by 0.441294%. The model has met the classical assumption tests and model validity, so the results can be trusted. These findings highlight the importance of maintaining a balance between consumption and production to support sustainable national food security.
Co-Authors Ahmad Adzkiya Abimanyu Daryono Aulia Rahmi Al Muqorobbun Destifa Prastiti Kusuma Faisal Agymnastiar Rahmad Fradani Gempati, Abel Laksmi Yustika Devi Nafisah Zahra Naili Aulia Dewi Nindya Faristanti Rahmad Fradani, Faisal Agymnastiar Rayya Malik Ibrahim Rian Ahmadul Huda Salsabila Ayubita Pandega Yusuf Riyan Prasetyo