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All Journal Seminar Nasional Hasil Riset dan Pengabdian (SNHRP) LogicLink: Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Multimedia in Informatics
Arum Nilawati
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Computer Science & IT Other

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Analisis Cluster Hierarki Pada Tingkat Kemiskinan di Provinsi Sumatera Utara tahun 2023 Bagus Candra Setiawan; Arum Nilawati; Rahmad Ferdian; Raihan Aditya Saputra; Yemima Putri Santoso; Muhammad Riefky
LogicLink Vol. 2 No. 1, Juni 2025
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri K.H. Abdurrahman Wahid Pekalongan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.28918/logiclink.v2i1.10762

Abstract

Poverty is one of the problems that is still a priority in social and economic development in Indonesia. In 2023, North Sumatra Province had a poverty rate of 8.15% with a total of 1,239.71 thousand poor people. The condition of poverty by district/city in North Sumatra Province is very diverse. The purpose of this study is to group districts/cities in North Sumatra Province in 2023 based on poverty rate indicators using hierarchical clusters. The data used in this study is secondary data with four poverty variables from 33 districts/cities in the North Sumatra Province in 2023. The results of the analysis contained 3 clusters with the number of members in clusters 1, 2, and 3. Suggestions for the North Sumatra Provincial Government need to formulate adaptive and specific policies based on the characteristics of each regional cluster prioritizing high poverty problem areas through strengthening access to education, health, and productive economic development. In addition, intensive cooperation between regions within the same cluster should be developed to support information exchange, joint empowerment programs, and local economic development synergies to improve the effectiveness of interventions and the welfare of the community in a sustainable manner.
PROYEKSI TREN MUSIMAN HARGA BERAS KUALITAS PREMIUM BULANAN DALAM MENDUKUNG KEBIJAKAN PANGAN BERKELANJUTAN DI INDONESIA Arum Nilawati; Oktavia Indah Wardani; Yemima Putri Santoso; Muhammad Riefky
Seminar Nasional Hasil Riset dan Pengabdian Vol. 7 (2025): Seminar Nasional Hasil Riset dan Pengabdian (SNHRP) Ke 7 Tahun 2025
Publisher : LPPM Universitas PGRI Adi Buana

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Abstract

Ketahanan pangan merupakan agenda strategis nasional yang memiliki keterkaitan erat dengan stabilitas harga beras sebagai komoditas utama di Indonesia. Penelitian ini meramalkan harga beras premium untuk 36 bulan ke depan dengan membandingkan empat model tren runtun waktu: linear, quadratic, exponential, dan linear seasonal menggunakan indikator MAPE, MSD, dan MAD. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model linear musiman memiliki tingkat akurasi tertinggi dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 3,46%, MSD 0,30, dan MAD 0,42. Ramalan menunjukkan kenaikan harga dari Rp14.739/kg pada Januari 2025 menjadi Rp19.310/kg pada Desember 2027. Kenaikan berkelanjutan ini mengindikasikan tekanan inflasi pangan yang bersifat struktural sehingga diperlukan strategi seperti penguatan kelembagaan pangan, modernisasi pertanian, peningkatan efisiensi logistik, dan pemanfaatan data peramalan musiman untuk menjaga stabilitas harga serta mendukung pencapaian SDG 2, 8, 12, dan 13.
Co-Authors Bagus Candra Setiawan Muhammad Riefky Oktavia Indah Wardani Rahmad Ferdian Raihan Aditya Saputra Yemima Putri Santoso