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All Journal EKONOMI, KEUANGAN, INVESTASI DAN SYARIAH (EKUITAS) JOURNAL OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS RESEARCH (JBE) Journal of Management, Accounting, General Finance and International Economic Issues (MARGINAL)
Agustini, Anti Wulan
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Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science Social Sciences

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Relationship Between Inflation and Financial Stability: A Case Study of ASEAN Nations Farida, Gina; Kenedi, Kenedi; Agustini, Anti Wulan
Ekonomi, Keuangan, Investasi dan Syariah (EKUITAS) Vol 7 No 1 (2025): August 2025
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi (FKPT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/ekuitas.v7i1.8147

Abstract

Inflation is a key macroeconomic indicator that plays a critical role in shaping the direction and stability of financial systems, especially in the ASEAN region, where countries exhibit diverse levels of economic development. Persistent inflationary pressures may lead to systemic risks in the financial sector through rising non-performing loans and declining investor confidence. This study investigates the impact of inflation on financial stability in ASEAN countries, while controlling for exchange rate fluctuations. Utilizing annual panel data from 2000 to 2021, the study employs the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Panel ARDL) approach. Financial stability is proxied by the banking sector’s Z-score index, with inflation as the primary independent variable and the exchange rate included as a control variable. Prior to estimation, panel unit root, cross-sectional dependence, and cointegration tests are conducted to ensure model robustness. The long-run estimation results show that inflation has a significant negative effect on financial stability (coefficient = -0.206173, p = 0.0256), while the exchange rate is insignificant (p = 0.7967). In the short run, inflation exhibits a temporary positive effect (coefficient = 0.118962, p = 0.0784), whereas the exchange rate remains insignificant. The error correction term (ECT) is negative and significant (coefficient = -0.616539, p = 0.0190), indicating that 61.65% of short-term disequilibrium is corrected toward long-run equilibrium within one period. These findings underscore the critical importance of inflation control as a strategic policy tool to preserve long-term financial stability in ASEAN, alongside consistent macroprudential measures to mitigate external shocks, including exchange rate volatility.
The Influence of Digital Money, Financial Inclusion, and Investment on Economic Growth in Indonesia Amsilah, Amsilah; Kenedi, Kenedi; Agustini, Anti Wulan
Ekonomi, Keuangan, Investasi dan Syariah (EKUITAS) Vol 7 No 1 (2025): August 2025
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi (FKPT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/ekuitas.v7i1.8150

Abstract

The rapid growth of digital finance has reshaped economic activities in emerging markets, including Indonesia. As financial technology evolves, understanding its influence on economic development becomes increasingly important. This study aims to examine the impact of digital money, financial inclusion, and investment on economic growth in Indonesia from 2009 to 2023. A quantitative approach was employed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze annual time series data. The results reveal that in the long run, all three variables digital money, financial inclusion, and investment significantly and positively influence economic growth. Investment had the largest impact, followed by financial inclusion and digital money. In the short run, digital money and investment remain significant, while financial inclusion shows a lagged negative effect. The error correction term is significant and negative, confirming a stable long-run relationship. The findings underscore the importance of promoting investment and strengthening digital and financial infrastructure to enhance both immediate and sustained economic performance in Indonesia’s digital economy.
The Impact of Renewable Energy Consumption on Economic Growth in Seven ASEAN Countries Mulyani, Mulyani; Hidayat, Asep Munir; Tejaarief, Billy; Kenedi, Kenedi; Agustini, Anti Wulan
JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT, ACCOUNTING, GENERAL FINANCE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ISSUES Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): DECEMBER
Publisher : Transpublika Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55047/marginal.v5i1.1920

Abstract

Renewable energy has become a global priority to reduce fossil fuel dependence and environmental impact. Seven ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, Singapore, Cambodia) face significant challenges in maintaining energy stability while promoting sustainable development. This study analyzes the direct effects of Renewable Energy Consumption, Electricity Consumption, and Trade on Economic Growth from 2014 to 2023 in seven ASEAN countries. Secondary data analysis using a quantitative approach was employed. The sample consisted of seven countries selected through purposive sampling. Panel data analysis was conducted using Eviews10 program. The F-statistic value of 568.6365 exceeded the F-table value of 3.13 at 95% confidence level, rejecting the null hypothesis. Collectively, Renewable Energy Consumption, Electricity Consumption, and Trade significantly influence Economic Growth. Country-specific analysis revealed that renewable energy consumption affects economic growth across all countries, electricity consumption significantly influences growth in Cambodia and Vietnam, while trade contributes to economic growth in Malaysia and Vietnam. The findings demonstrate that energy transition and regional economic integration play crucial roles in supporting long-term economic growth in the ASEAN region. Each country exhibits varying responses to different energy and trade factors, indicating the need for tailored sustainable development approaches. 
Causality Analysis of Economic Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rates on the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) in Indonesia: An ARDL Approach Basudewa, Meisya Diazzahra Putri; Hidayat, Asep Munir; Tejaarief, Billy; Kenedi, Kenedi; Agustini, Anti Wulan
JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT, ACCOUNTING, GENERAL FINANCE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ISSUES Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): DECEMBER
Publisher : Transpublika Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55047/marginal.v5i1.1925

Abstract

One important indicator of Indonesia's economic condition is the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI). As the measure of all listed stocks, its movement directly reflects economic stability and investor confidence. The JCI is, however, highly susceptible to both global and domestic macroeconomic pressures, making its relationship with key fundamentals, such as economic growth, inflation, and interest rates. The purpose of this study is to analyze the short-term and long-term impacts of inflation, interest rates, and economic growth on the JCI. This study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model on time series data using secondary data and quantitative correlation techniques. The results show that although economic growth has no short-term impact on the JCI, it does have a significant long-term impact. On the other hand, neither inflation nor interest rates have a significant impact on the JCI in the short or long term. An adjustment rate of 50.49% was achieved using an error correction mechanism, indicating a tendency towards long-term equilibrium. Additional causality analysis shows a unidirectional relationship between inflation and the JCI and between the JCI and economic growth. However, neither the JCI nor interest rates and economic growth have a reciprocal relationship on the JCI, and there is no causal relationship between the both.
The Effect of Minimum Wage, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) and Open Unemployment Rate on Labor Absorption in Manufacturing Industry Sector in Java Island Munggaran, Rebion Raga; Hidayat, Asep Munir; Tejaarief, Billy; Kenedi, Kenedi; Agustini, Anti Wulan
JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT, ACCOUNTING, GENERAL FINANCE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ISSUES Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): DECEMBER
Publisher : Transpublika Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55047/marginal.v5i1.1927

Abstract

The manufacturing industry in Java Island plays an important role in Indonesia's economy, contributing significantly to Minimum Wage, Gross Regional Domestic Product, and Open Unemployment Rate. However, there are imbalances between provinces influenced by regional policies, economic conditions, and industrial sectors. This research aims to analyze the long-term, short-term effects, and long-term adjustment mechanism (Error Correction Term) in Java Island, covering six provinces: DKI Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, DI Yogyakarta, East Java, and Banten. The method used is a quantitative approach with secondary data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) for the period 2010-2024, analyzed using Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with EViews version 13 software. The research results show that in the long term, Minimum Wage and Open Unemployment Rate have significant negative effects on Labor Absorption, while Gross Regional Domestic Product has a significant positive effect. In the short term, these variables do not significantly affect most provinces. However, analysis of the long-term adjustment mechanism (Error Correction Term) shows that provinces such as West Java, DI Yogyakarta, East Java, and Banten have significant adjustments, while DKI Jakarta and Central Java do not show significant adjustments. The research conclusions indicate that Gross Regional Domestic Product has a positive effect on labor absorption, while Minimum Wage and Open Unemployment Rate have negative effects. Long-term adjustment mechanisms are significant in several provinces, but DKI Jakarta and Central Java face structural barriers. Therefore, more responsive and balanced economic policies are needed.
Tertiary Education, Investment, and Labor Force Participation as Determinants of Indonesia’s Economic Growth: Evidence from ARDL Analysis, 1990–2023 Anisa, Aan; Kenedi, Kenedi; Agustini, Anti Wulan
Journal of Business and Economics Research (JBE) Vol 6 No 3 (2025): October 2025
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/jbe.v6i3.8217

Abstract

The relationship between higher education and economic growth has been widely discussed, yet evidence from emerging economies such as Indonesia remains inconclusive, particularly when considering the interplay of education, investment, and labor market dynamics. This study seeks to address this gap by analyzing Indonesia’s economic performance from 1990 to 2023 using annual time-series data sourced from the World Bank. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the analysis reveals that tertiary education enrollment exerts a significant positive contribution to economic expansion (coefficient = 0.0118, p < 0.01), while investment demonstrates a robust growth-enhancing effect (coefficient = 0.3859, p < 0.01). By contrast, labor force participation shows a negative association (coefficient = –0.0164, p < 0.05), reflecting structural inefficiencies in the labor market. In the short horizon, investment delivers immediate and significant benefits (coefficient = 0.4016, p < 0.01), whereas changes in labor force participation appear statistically negligible. The error correction term (–0.4622, p < 0.01) further indicates a moderate pace of adjustment, with nearly 46% of disequilibria resolved annually. These results highlight the need for policies that strengthen higher education quality, sustain a favorable investment climate, and reform labor markets, thereby ensuring that Indonesia moves toward inclusive and sustainable development.
Co-Authors Amsilah, Amsilah Anisa, Aan Basudewa, Meisya Diazzahra Putri Farida, Gina Hidayat, Asep Munir Kenedi, Kenedi Mulyani Mulyani Munggaran, Rebion Raga Tejaarief, Billy