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All Journal Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan
Athfal, Azkal Azkiya
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Export-led growth and growth-led export in ASEAN: A panel VECM causality analysis Suripto, Suripto; Khasanah, Uswatun; Sukarniati, Lestari; Salim, Agus; Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi; Athfal, Azkal Azkiya
Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Vol. 26 No. 2: October 2025
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jesp.v26i2.28357

Abstract

This study examines the bidirectional relationship between exports and economic growth in five ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, and the Philippines. The analysis applies the Export-Led Growth (ELG) and Growth-Led Export (GLE) frameworks using annual panel data from 1971 to 2023. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and panel Granger causality tests are employed to identify short-term dynamics and long-term equilibrium relationships. Stationarity is tested using the Levin-Lin-Chu, Im-Pesaran-Shin, and Phillips-Perron methods, while long-run cointegration is examined using the Kao and Pedroni approaches. The findings confirm a stable long-run relationship between exports and economic growth across ASEAN countries. In the short run, causal directions vary among countries. The Export-Led Growth pattern appears in Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand, whereas the Growth-Led Export pattern is evident in the Philippines, while Malaysia shows a weaker short-term interaction. Long-run estimates reveal a two-way adjustment mechanism between exports and growth, suggesting that structural differences and trade openness determine the strength and direction of causality. The novelty of this research lies in the simultaneous testing of ELG and GLE hypotheses within a panel-based VECM framework that integrates short-run and long-run dynamics using Python-based econometric modelling. The study contributes new empirical evidence and policy insights for designing context-specific trade and growth strategies across ASEAN economies.
Multilevel analysis of macroeconomic and institutional determinants of FDI in Newly Industrialized Countries Suripto, Suripto; Salim, Agus; Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi; Khasanah, Uswatun; Athfal, Azkal Azkiya; Wong, Wing-Keung; Vieira, Isabel
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 18 Issue 2, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol18.iss2.art3

Abstract

Purpose — This study empirically examines how macroeconomic and institutional factors influence Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows in Newly Industrialised Countries (NICs), with particular emphasis on structural backwardness among NICs.Method — The analysis uses a Hierarchical Linear Modelling (HLM) approach based on multilevel panel data for 2013–2024. We tested the model in stages using the Null Model, Random Intercept Model, and Random Slope Model.Findings — The Null Model yields that cross-country differences, rather than temporal fluctuations, drive most of the variation in FDI across NICs. Graphical analysis confirms this cross-country heterogeneity, showing that institutional capacity and macroeconomic strength explain most of the variation in FDI across countries. The Random Slope Model further shows that GDP has a positive and significant effect on FDI, while Political Stability has a significant negative effect. Trade Openness, Government Effectiveness, and Voice and Accountability are not statistically significant, indicating that macroeconomic factors remain the dominant drivers of FDI.Implication — These findings emphasise the importance of strengthening economic foundations and institutional flexibility in the design of foreign investment policies in NICS countries.Originality — The main contribution of this research lies in its use of random-slope models of Voice and Accountability (VA) models within the HLM framework, enabling a deeper examination of institutional dynamics across NICs.
Co-Authors Agus Salim Agus Salim Fachry Abda El Rahman Lestari Sukarniati, Lestari Mahrus Lutfi Adi Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi Sukamto, Ika Sumiyarsi Suripto Suripto USWATUN KHASANAH Vieira, Isabel Wong, Wing-Keung