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All Journal Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Eko-Regional: Jurnal Pembangunan Ekonomi Wilayah
Athfal, Azkal Azkiya
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Environmental Science Public Health Social Sciences

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Unveiling Regional Growth Patterns Spatial Heterogeneity and Infrastructure Quality under a Bayesian Framework in Central Java Suripto, Suripto; Salim, Agus; Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi; Khasanah, Uswatun; Athfal, Azkal Azkiya
Eko-Regional: Jurnal Pembangunan Ekonomi Wilayah Vol 20 No 2 (2025): September 2025
Publisher : Faculty of Economics and Business Universitas Jenderal Soedirman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32424/er.v20i2.17670

Abstract

: This study investigates the impact of infrastructure quality, encompassing roads, clean water distribution, and electricity consumption, on regional economic growth in Central Java from 2018 to 2024. A Bayesian Panel Data Regression model with a hierarchical structure was estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, assisted by Python programming, to address spatial heterogeneity, lag effects, and parameter uncertainty. Model validation employed Posterior Predictive Checks (PPC), Bayesian R², R-hat statistics, and Effective Sample Size (ESS). The findings reveal that past GRDP significantly influences current regional economic growth, while the direct effects of infrastructure variables are statistically insignificant. This outcome highlights that infrastructure quality is more important than quantity in promoting development. The study advances empirical methodologies by integrating full posterior inference with predictive validation, representing a state-of-the-art approach in regional economic analysis. The results provide strong evidence in support of formulating infrastructure policies that focus on long-term, sustainable Growth.
Export-led growth and growth-led export in ASEAN: A panel VECM causality analysis Suripto, Suripto; Khasanah, Uswatun; Sukarniati, Lestari; Salim, Agus; Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi; Athfal, Azkal Azkiya
Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Vol. 26 No. 2: October 2025
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jesp.v26i2.28357

Abstract

This study examines the bidirectional relationship between exports and economic growth in five ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, and the Philippines. The analysis applies the Export-Led Growth (ELG) and Growth-Led Export (GLE) frameworks using annual panel data from 1971 to 2023. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and panel Granger causality tests are employed to identify short-term dynamics and long-term equilibrium relationships. Stationarity is tested using the Levin-Lin-Chu, Im-Pesaran-Shin, and Phillips-Perron methods, while long-run cointegration is examined using the Kao and Pedroni approaches. The findings confirm a stable long-run relationship between exports and economic growth across ASEAN countries. In the short run, causal directions vary among countries. The Export-Led Growth pattern appears in Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand, whereas the Growth-Led Export pattern is evident in the Philippines, while Malaysia shows a weaker short-term interaction. Long-run estimates reveal a two-way adjustment mechanism between exports and growth, suggesting that structural differences and trade openness determine the strength and direction of causality. The novelty of this research lies in the simultaneous testing of ELG and GLE hypotheses within a panel-based VECM framework that integrates short-run and long-run dynamics using Python-based econometric modelling. The study contributes new empirical evidence and policy insights for designing context-specific trade and growth strategies across ASEAN economies.
Co-Authors Agus Salim Agus Salim Fachry Abda El Rahman Lestari Sukarniati, Lestari Mahrus Lutfi Adi Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi Sukamto, Ika Sumiyarsi Suripto Suripto