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All Journal IJIBE (International Journal of Islamic Business Ethics) Tazkia Islamic Finance and Business Review Economica: Jurnal Ekonomi Islam Indikator: Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen & Bisnis Al-Muzara'ah Jesya (Jurnal Ekonomi dan Ekonomi Syariah) Airlangga International Journal of Islamic Economics and Finance Etihad: Journal of Islamic Banking and Finance TAMKIN Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat International Journal of Education, Management, and Technology Al-Infaq : Jurnal Ekonomi Islam
Nurrachmi, Rininta
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Religion Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Social Sciences Other

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Arima Forecasting of Indonesia’s Sovereign Sukuk as a Sustainable Financing Instrument Hartono, Haryani Santo; Nurrachmi, Rininta; Salleh, Sharifah Nabilah Syed
Economica: Jurnal Ekonomi Islam Vol. 16 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam UIN Walisongo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21580/economica.2025.16.2.28256

Abstract

Sukuk development in Indonesia, along with SBSN (Surat Berharga Syariah Negara) sovereign securitization sukuk SBSN, sovereign securitization sukuk (SBSN), sustainable and diverse in-structure financing sukuk SBSN, is being balanced with the increasing usage of Sharia-compliant instruments for the financing of fiscal deficits and the management of sovereign debts, which continues to expand. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is employed in this study, using monthly time series data for the period 2019 to 2024. Among the time series modeling techniques, ARIMA was chosen because explicit macroeconomic theories are not required for time series projection; thus, it is more suitable for modeling historical time series. The study has found that while the values of outstanding sukuk will no doubt increase, the uncertainty of longer-term forecasting will also increase. Forecasting in the present study lacks immediate quantification; however, the analyses provide a relevant and sustained policy framework for sovereign debt, and the analyses support the potentially strategic role of thematized instruments in fiscal management and for the sustainability of sukuk, in particular, focused sukuk, green sukuk, and retail sukuk. The research outlines strategic considerations for managing Shariah-compliant, long-term, and dynamic debt in Indonesia, thereby aligning financial innovation with national development interests.
Co-Authors Ali, Zulkarnain Muhammad Fitriah Fitriah Hartono, Haryani Santo Rachmad, Dedy Salleh, Sharifah Nabilah Syed Santo Hartono, Haryani Sarni Sarni Verina, Rizky Nanda Zaerofi, Afif