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All Journal GOVERNANCE: Jurnal Ilmiah Kajian Politik Lokal dan Pembangunan Multidiciplinary Output Research for Actual and International Issue (Morfai Journal)
Maratus Sholikhah
Universitas Diponegoro
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ECONOMIC STRUCTURE, ENERGY TRANSITION, AND CARBON EMISSIONS IN ASEAN MARITIME STATES : PANEL ARDL APPROACH Indah Susilowati; Muhammad Fahrur Rozi; Ismiyati; Dwijaya Samudra Suryaman; Maratus Sholikhah
Multidiciplinary Output Research For Actual and International Issue (MORFAI) Vol. 6 No. 1 (2026): Multidiciplinary Output Research For Actual and International Issue
Publisher : RADJA PUBLIKA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18491953

Abstract

This study analyzes the factors influencing carbon emissions in five ASEAN maritime countries, namely Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam, using the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (P-ARDL) method with data from 1993 to 2023. The variables studied include economic growth, energy intensity, the share of renewable energy, and sector structure using the agriculture industry proxy. Long-term estimates show that GDP per capita growth, energy intensity, and sector structure have a significant positive effect on carbon emissions, while renewable energy has a negative but insignificant effect. In the short term, energy intensity is the most dominant factor increasing emissions, while economic growth, renewable energy, and sector structure have not shown a significant impact. Vietnam and Thailand are still in the early phase of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), while the Philippines and Malaysia are beginning to show decoupling through energy efficiency and the service sector. Indonesia shows an unstable transition pattern. These findings emphasize the need to improve energy efficiency and accelerate the clean energy transition in ASEAN maritime countries.
A PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP EMISI KARBON DI NEGARA ASEAN 2015-2022 Maratus Sholikhah; Hastarini Dwi Atmanti
GOVERNANCE: Jurnal Ilmiah Kajian Politik Lokal dan Pembangunan Vol. 13 No. 6 (2026): 2026 Juni
Publisher : Lembaga Kajian Ilmu Sosial dan Politik (LKISPOL)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56015/gjikplp.v13i6.1101

Abstract

This study aims to test the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in ASEAN member countries from 2015 to 2022 and to analyze the effects of GDP per capita, population, energy transition, foreign investment, and trade openness on carbon emissions in ASEAN countries during the same period, both simultaneously and partially. This research employs a quantitative approach using data sourced from the International Energy Agency and the World Bank. The analytical method used is multiple linear regression with panel data covering 10 ASEAN countries from 2015 to 2022. The results show that the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis is confirmed in ASEAN member countries for the period 2015–2022, with a turning point in the relationship between GDP per capita and CO₂ emissions at approximately 17.11 trillion USD. Singapore and Brunei Darussalam are among the ASEAN countries that have passed the scale effect and structural effect phases on the EKC, while the remaining countries are still on the left side of the curve. GDP per capita, population, energy transition, foreign investment, and trade openness simultaneously influence carbon emissions in ASEAN during 2015–2022. GDP per capita can either increase or decrease carbon emissions significantly depending on whether a country has reached the EKC turning point. Population, foreign investment, and trade openness significantly increase carbon emissions in ASEAN. Meanwhile, energy transition tends to reduce carbon emissions, although the effect is not statistically significant. Keywords: Carbon emissions, GDP per capita, energy transition, trade openness
Co-Authors Dwijaya Samudra Suryaman Hastarini Dwi Atmanti Indah Susilowati Ismiyati Muhammad Fahrur Rozi