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All Journal JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Mamangan Social Science Journal
Gultom, Gertha Maria
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Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences

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Decision-Making Process of the United States Withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2020-2021 Diphda, Bintang Corvi; Safira, Putri Alyaa; Ramadhani, Yoga; Gultom, Gertha Maria; Foraihmbarasi, Angelique Kishiola Prima
JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Vol 8, No 4 (2025): November 2025
Publisher : Smart Education

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54314/jssr.v8i4.4764

Abstract

This article explains why the United States chose to withdraw troops from Afghanistan in 2020-2021 by applying Graham Allisons decision-making models. Using a qualitative desk review, this article systematically identified, selected, and analysed secondary sources, then conducted a thematic analysis aligned with the Rational Actor, Organisational Process, and Bureaucratic Politics frameworks. The findings show that, as a rational actor, the U.S. pursued strategic aims of cost reduction, force protection, and fulfilment of political commitments, enabled in part by the Doha framework. Organisational procedures within the Department of Defence, the State Department, and CENTCOM shaped the pace, sequencing, and modalities of withdrawal. Bureaucratic bargaining among the President, senior defence leaders, and the special envoy structured key choices and trade-offs. This article concludes that the exit was driven by rational goals filtered through institutional routines and interagency politics. Policy implications include earlier whole-of-government planning, tighter diplomatic coordination with partners, and robust contingency arrangements.
Post-Conflict Political Dynamics In Poso: Examining Neopatrimonial Practices 2005-2024 Ubaid, Ahmad Hasan; Rahmatiana, Mahira Sandria; Gultom, Gertha Maria; Akbar, Taufik
Jurnal Mamangan Vol 12, No 2 (2023): Special Issue
Publisher : LPPM Universitas PGRI Sumatera Barat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22202/mamangan.v13i2.10265

Abstract

This study investigates how post-conflict governance in Poso has been shaped by neopatrimonial practices and how hybrid political orders endure despite the formalization of peace agreements. The research aims to explain the persistence of elite domination in the region by examining the ways in which local actors consolidate their power through control of resources, patronage networks, clientelism, and the mobilization of religious sentiment. To achieve this, the study employs a qualitative explanatory approach, relying on in-depth interviews with key informants, analysis of official documents, electoral results, and secondary materials such as books, journals, and online publications. The findings reveal that while the Malino Declaration of 2001 was successful in reducing the intensity of violent conflict between Christian and Muslim communities, it fell short of producing a more inclusive and democratic political order. Instead, the political arena in Poso remains dominated by a small circle of elites who sustain the status quo and use both formal and informal mechanisms to secure their authority. These dynamics demonstrate that neopatrimonialism continues to influence the post-conflict political landscape, giving rise to a hybrid political order in which democratic institutions formally exist but function in parallel with clientelistic practices and elite-driven governance. The study concludes that without addressing the entrenched neopatrimonial system, post-conflict democratization in Poso will remain limited, and power will continue to circulate within narrow elite networks rather than being shared more broadly across society.
Co-Authors Diphda, Bintang Corvi Foraihmbarasi, Angelique Kishiola Prima Rahmatiana, Mahira Sandria Ramadhani, Yoga Safira, Putri Alyaa Taufik Akbar Ubaid, Ahmad Hasan