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All Journal Ilomata International Journal of Management Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan Indonesia
Setiyo Purwanto
Universitas Paramadina
Social Sciences Other

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The impact of the U.S.-China trade war on Indonesia's financial stability: analysis and implications Setiyo Purwanto; Nur Endah Retno Wuryandari; Abdy Kurniawan
JPPI (Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan Indonesia) Vol. 12 No. 1 (2026): JPPI (Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan Indonesia)
Publisher : Indonesian Institute for Counseling, Education and Theraphy (IICET)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29210/020266243

Abstract

The U.S.–China trade war has generated significant global economic spillovers, yet empirical evidence on its impact on financial stability in third-party emerging economies remains limited. This study examines the effects of tariff escalation, bilateral trade volume, foreign direct investment (FDI), and exchange rate volatility on Indonesia’s financial stability during 2018–2025. Using an explanatory quantitative design, the study employs annual secondary time-series data from official national and international sources and applies multiple regression analysis to test the proposed relationships. The results show that tariff escalation has a statistically significant negative effect on Indonesia’s financial stability, mainly through reduced trade volume and weaker investment flows. Conversely, trade volume and FDI have significant positive effects, indicating their role in strengthening economic resilience. Exchange rate volatility is statistically significant but does not consistently destabilize the financial system, suggesting effective policy responses. These findings provide empirical evidence on how global trade conflicts are transmitted to emerging economies and offer policy insights for enhancing financial resilience amid persistent global uncertainty.
The Fintech Paradox: Re-evaluating Financial Technology Adoption, Investment Efficiency, and Firm Size in an Emerging Market Setiyo Purwanto; Nur Endah Retno Wuryandari; Masatsugu Nemoto; Kristiana Widiawati
Ilomata International Journal of Management Vol. 7 No. 4 (2026): October 2026
Publisher : Yayasan Sinergi Kawula Muda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61194/ijjm.v7i4.2382

Abstract

While the rapid expansion of financial technology (fintech) promises enhanced corporate valuation and investment efficiency, its value-creating potential within capital-intensive real sectors remains empirically contested. Addressing this critical gap, this study investigates the impact of fintech adoption on firm value among manufacturing enterprises in an emerging market, evaluating investment efficiency as a mediating mechanism and firm size as a boundary condition. Utilizing a balanced panel dataset of 162 manufacturing firms listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange yielding 324 firm-year observations from the 2022–2024 period after applying a lagged model design this study employs a Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) regression framework to mitigate unobserved firm and time heterogeneity. Contrary to prevailing digital optimism, the empirical findings reveal the existence of a "Fintech Paradox": digital financial integration fails to exert a statistically significant direct effect on market valuation (Tobin’s Q) or significantly optimize capital allocation. Consequently, the hypothesized mediation paths are broken. Furthermore, firm size does not positively moderate this relationship; rather, a larger organizational scale exerts a direct, negative pressure on firm value. These findings demonstrate that within rigid, large-scale manufacturing environments, bureaucratic inertia and massive physical adjustment costs temporarily neutralize the theoretical benefits of financial digitization. Ultimately, this study cautions that fintech adoption is not a universal value driver and requires fundamental organizational agility to succeed in capital-intensive sectors.
Co-Authors Kristiana Widiawati Kurniawan, Abdy Masatsugu Nemoto Nur Endah Retno Wuryandari Nur Endah Retno Wuryandari