This research addresses the challenges faced by UMKM Rumah Roti, a small bakery in Ciracas, Indonesia, regarding declining profits due to suboptimal use of e-commerce, promotional strategies, and production capacity. By employing system dynamics simulation, the study analyzes the impact of various business strategies on profitability. Seven business scenarios were modeled to identify the most effective combination of strategies. Simulation results indicate that integrating e-commerce, effective promotions, and investments in production capacity (such as additional ovens) significantly increase income and profits. The study recommends implementing a comprehensive, data-driven strategy based on simulation outcomes to optimize business performance, highlighting the importance of systematic planning and data-driven decision-making in navigating a competitive market environment.
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