This study aims to predict road damage conditions based on the International Roughness Index (IRI) value using the Roadroid application on class III roads with low traffic volume in Lumajang Regency. This study is important because the road section has not undergone maintenance since 2018, thus potentially experiencing accelerated degradation of pavement performance. IRI data for 2023 was obtained through a field survey using the Android-based Roadroid application and compared with IRI data for 2018 measured using the National Association of Australian State Road Authorities (NAASRA) tool to determine the rate of increase in damage and predict conditions for the next five years. The results showed that the average IRI value in 2023 was in the severely damaged category with a value between 12.5–20.5 m/km. The relationship model between IRI and Average Daily Traffic (ADR) of heavy vehicles produced the equation y = 0.2889x + 1.2993 (R² = 0.935), which indicates a significant effect of heavy vehicle volume on increasing road surface roughness. Predictive simulations indicate that several road segments are expected to reach a state of minor damage within the next 2–4 years, even with overlays. The novelty of this research lies in the integration of historical and survey data with the Roadroid application for predictive modeling of road damage on low-traffic sections as a basis for preventive maintenance planning.
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