SRIWIJAYA INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DYNAMIC ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS
SIJDEB, Vol. 10, No. 2, June 2026

Panel VECM Analysis of Monetary Variables and Economic Growth in ASEAN Upper Middle Income Countries

Sri Ningsih (Universitas Jambi)
Deki Irawan (Universitas Jambi)
Peni Syahrani (Universitas Jambi)
Halia Butra Aini (Universitas Sriwijaya)



Article Info

Publish Date
18 Oct 2026

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between monetary variables and economic growth in upper-middle-income ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand) from 2000 to 2024 using a Panel VECM. Secondary data were sourced from the World Bank, IMF, and official national publications, covering economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and money supply (M2). Cointegration tests confirm a long-run relationship among variables (p < 0.05). Long-run VECM estimates indicate that money supply and interest rates negatively affect economic growth, whereas inflation exerts a positive effect. In the short run, money supply and interest rates maintain negative impacts, while inflation shows a positive yet fluctuating influence. Impulse Response Function analysis reveals an unstable response from inflation, while Variance Decomposition indicates that growth is driven mainly by money supply and inflation. Overall, monetary instruments play a vital role, though their effectiveness varies across variables.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

SIJDEB

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

The SIJDEB invites manuscripts in the various topics include, but not limited to functional areas of Financial Management, Marketing Management, Human Resource Management, Entrepreneurship, Strategic Management, Public Economics, Monetary Economics, Industrial Economics, Human Resource Economics, ...