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All Journal SRIWIJAYA INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DYNAMIC ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS
Peni Syahrani
Universitas Jambi
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Panel VECM Analysis of Monetary Variables and Economic Growth in ASEAN Upper Middle Income Countries Sri Ningsih; Deki Irawan; Peni Syahrani; Halia Butra Aini
SRIWIJAYA INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DYNAMIC ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS SIJDEB, Vol. 10, No. 2, June 2026
Publisher : Faculty of Economics, Universitas Sriwijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29259/sijdeb.v10i2.207-224

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between monetary variables and economic growth in upper-middle-income ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand) from 2000 to 2024 using a Panel VECM. Secondary data were sourced from the World Bank, IMF, and official national publications, covering economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and money supply (M2). Cointegration tests confirm a long-run relationship among variables (p < 0.05). Long-run VECM estimates indicate that money supply and interest rates negatively affect economic growth, whereas inflation exerts a positive effect. In the short run, money supply and interest rates maintain negative impacts, while inflation shows a positive yet fluctuating influence. Impulse Response Function analysis reveals an unstable response from inflation, while Variance Decomposition indicates that growth is driven mainly by money supply and inflation. Overall, monetary instruments play a vital role, though their effectiveness varies across variables.
Co-Authors Deki Irawan Halia Butra Aini Sri Ningsih