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Media Statistika

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ISSN : - EISSN : 24770647 DOI : -

Core Subject : Science,

Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management

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Articles 271 Documents

11 12 13 14 15

MODEL EKSPONENSIAL GANDA PADA PROSES STOKASTIK (STUDI KASUS DI STASIUN PURWOSARI) Sugito, Sugito; Wilandari, Yuciana
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 8, No 1 (2015): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

In general, mathematical modeling is divided into two, namely the model of deterministic and stochastic models. On stochastic modeling involves several processes among them are the Poisson process, the process of Bernoulli, Gaussian processes, the process of renewal and other processes. Specifically for the Poisson process often found in modeling queuing theory. At Poisson process there are four kinds of sub model that can be formed that is Double Poisson models, Exponential Poisson models, Poisson Exponential model, and Double Exponential models. In this paper will discuss the Double Exponential model in stochastic processes , specifically for the Poisson process. Analysis was performed on the data arrival time and service time. The model is a model (M / M / c) : ( GD / ~, ~) which is a double exponential model in stochastic processes.Â Keywords: Double Exponential, Poisson Process, Stochastic Process

PEMODELAN KURVA IMBAL HASIL DAN KOMPUTASINYA DENGAN PAKET SOFTWARE RCMDRPLUGIN.ECONOMETRICS Rosadi, Dedi
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 4, No 1 (2011): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

In this paper discussed the yield curve modeling methodology using the Nelson-Siegel model Svenson (Svensson, 1994) with special application to model the Indonesian Government Securities Yield Curve. The focus of this study is the computation of the yield curve model using the R, especially using a tool called the R-GUI RcmdrPlugin.Econometrics (Rosadi, 2011). For the empirical illustration, also given examples of applications using real data from the Indonesian capital market. Â Keywords: Kurva yield, R-GUI, Nelson-Siegel-Svenson

MODELING CENTRAL JAVA INFLATION AND GRDP RATE USING SPLINE TRUNCATED BIRESPON REGRESSION AND BIRESPON LINEAR MODEL Suparti Suparti; Alan Prahutama; Agus Rusgiyono; Sudargo Sudargo
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 12, No 2 (2019): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Inflation and Gross Regional Domestic Income (GRDP) are two macroeconomic variables of a region that are correlated with each other. GRDP prices constant (real) can be used as an indicator of economic growth in a region from year to year. Inflation is calculated from the CPI rate and economic growth is calculated from the GRDP rate. Inflation and economic growth in an area are influenced by several factors including bank interest rates. Analysis of data consisting of 2 correlated responses can be performed with birespon regression analysis. In this research, modeling of inflation data and the rate of GRDP through birespon data modeling uses spline truncated nonparametric method and birespon linear parametric method. The purpose of this study is to model inflation data and the Central Java GRDP rate using spline truncated birespon regression. The results are compared with the birespon linear regression model. By using quarterly data from the first quarter of 2007 - the second quarter of 2019, the spline truncated model is better than the linear model, because the spline truncated model has a smaller MSE and R2 is greater than the linear model. Both models have the same performance which is quite good.

PENENTUAN MODEL ANTRIAN BUS ANTAR KOTA DI TERMINAL MANGKANG Ispriyanti, Dwi; Sugito, Sugito
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 5, No 2 (2012): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

In daily activities, we often face in a situation of queueing. The Queue is dull. Most people have experienced in a queue situation or a waiting situation. It Â is Â a part of the state that occurs in a series of operations that are random in a service facility. The Queue can be found easily in a human life, for example bus queue in Terminal Mangkang. It means that a bus wait to be dispatched and from the bus that will go to the service station. Therefore make an arrival and departure of buses not on schedule which resulted in the accumulation of customers in the terminal. To analyze the extent of the effectiveness of terminal Mangkang particularly inter-city terminal Queue theory it is used in the service system in the terminal. Â Keywords: Queue, Terminal Mangkang Â

Metode Nonlinear Least Square (NLS) untuk Estimasi Parameter Model Wavelet Radial Basis Neural Network (WRBNN) Santoso, Rukun; Sudarno, Sudarno
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 10, No 1 (2017): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

The use of wavelet radial basis model for forecasting nonlinear time series is introduced in this paper. The model is generated by artificial neural network approximation under restriction that the activation function on the hidden layers is radial basis. The current model is developed from the multiresolution autoregressives (MAR) model, with addition of radial basis function in the hidden layers. The power of model is compared to the other nonlinear model existed before, such as MAR model and Generalized Autoregressives Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model. The simulation data which be generated from GARCH process is applied to support the aim of research. The sufficiency of model is measured by sum squared of error (SSE). The computation results show that the proposed model has a power as good as GARCH model to carry on the heteroscedastic process.Keywords:Wavelet, Radial Basis, Heteroscedastic Model, Neural Network Model.

METODE TAGUCHI UNTUK OPTIMALISASI PRODUK PADA RANCANGAN FAKTORIAL Wuryandari, Triastuti; Widiharih, Tatik; Anggraini, Sayekti Dewi
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 2, No 2 (2009): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Taguchi methods represent the effort quality improvement which known as off-line quality control Â method because the method design quality into every appropriate process and product. Taguchi methods is represent quality repair with attempt â€œnewâ€ methods, its meaning do dissimilar approach giving same belief storey by SPC (Statistical Proces Control), very effective in quality improvement as well as lessening expense of same. Fractional factorial design represent base from Taguchi method by fraction from factorial design. Fractional factorial withÂ 4 factors and defining relations p = 2 is or 81 run become or 9 blocks with each blocks there are 9 run just eligible one block. The block name that is Orthogonal Array which lessen time and attemp fare. Orthogonal Array used to device of factorial attemp 3 level by 4 factors that is Orthogonal Array L9. Optimalitation product of factorial design Â can be determinate with tables of anova, table of response and tables of Signal to Noise Ratio. Â Keywords: Taguchi Methods, Signal to Noise Ratio, Orthogonal Array

PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN EKSTRIM DI PROVINSI BANTEN DENGAN MODEL EKSTRIM SPASIAL Anik Djuraidah; Cici Suheni; Banan Nabila
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 12, No 1 (2019): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Extreme rainfall can cause negative impacts such as floods, landslides, and crop failures. Extreme rainfall modeling using spatial extreme models can provide location information of the event. Spatial extreme models combine the extreme value theory, the max-stable process, and the geostatistical correlation function of F-madogram. The estimation of the return value on the spatial extreme models is performed using the copula approach. This research used monthly rainfall data from January 1998 until December 2014 at 19 rain stations in Banten Province. The results showed that there was a high spatial dependence on extreme rainfall data in Banten Province. The forecast in range 1.5 years showed the best result compared to other ranges (1 year, 3 years, and 5 years) with MAPE 20%. The pattern of extreme rainfall forecasting was similar to its actual value with a correlation of 0.7 to 0.8. The predicted location that has the highest extreme rainfall was the Pandeglang Regency. Extreme rainfall forecasting at 19 rain stations in Banten Province using spatial extreme models produced a good forecasting.

ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI BANYAKNYA KLAIM ASURANSI KENDARAAAN BERMOTOR MENGGUNAKAN MODEL REGRESI ZERO-INFLATED POISSON (Studi Kasus di PT. Asuransi Sinar Mas Cabang Semarang Tahun 2010) Taufan, Muhammad; Suparti, Suparti; Rusgiyono, Agus
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 5, No 1 (2012): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Poisson regression is one of model that is often used to model the relationship between response variables in the form of discrete data with a set of predictor variables in the form of continuous, discrete, category, or mixture data. In Poisson regression assumes that the mean of the response variable equal to the variance (equidispersion). But in reality, sometimes found a condition called overdispersion, that the variance value is greater than the mean. One of the cause of overdispersion is excess zero in the response variable. One of model that can be used to overcome this overdispersion problem is Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) regressionÂ model. This model is applied on a case study of motor vehicle insurance in the branch of PT. Asuransi Sinar Mas in Semarang in 2010 to determine the effect of age of car and types of coverage to number of claims filed by the policyholder to the branch of PT. Asuransi Sinar Mas in Semarang. In this case, the occurrence of zeros due to many policyholders did not file a claim to the branch of PT. Asuransi Sinar Mas in Semarang. From the analytical result obtained the conclution that the age of car and types of coverage affect number of claims filed by the policyholder to the branch of PT. Asuransi Sinar Mas in Semarang in 2010. Â Keywords: Poisson Regression, Overdispersion, Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) Regression

RANCANGAN D-OPTIMAL UNTUK MODEL EKSPONENSIAL GENERAL Tatik Widiharih; Sri Haryatmi; Gunardi Gunardi
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 7, No 2 (2014): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Exponential model is widely used in biology, chemistry, pharmacokinetics and microbiology. D-optimal criteria is criteria with the purpuse to minimize the variance of the estimator of parameters in the model. In this paper will discuss the D-optimal design for the generalized exponential model with homoscedastics errore assumtion. We used minimally supported design with the proportion of each design point is uniform. The optimization is used modified Newton, and the results obtained that the design points are interior points of the design region. Keywords: D-Optimal, Generalized Exponential, Minimally Supported Design, Support Point, Homoscedastics

PEMODELAN REGRESI NONPARAMETRIK MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN POLINOMIAL LOKAL PADA BEBAN LISTRIK DI KOTA SEMARANG Suparti, Suparti; Prahutama, Alan
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 9, No 2 (2016): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Semarang is the provincial capital of Central Java, with infrastructure and economicâ€™s growth was high. The phenomenon of power outages that occurred in Semarang, certainly disrupted economic development in Semarang. Large electrical energy consumed by industrial-scale consumers and households in the San Francisco area, monitored or recorded automatically and presented into a historical data load power consumption. Therefore, this study modeling the load power consumption at a time when not influenced by the use of electrical load (t-1)-th. Modeling using nonparametric regression approach with Local polynomial. In this study, the kernel used is a Gaussian kernel. In local polynomial modeling, determined optimum bandwidth. One of the optimum bandwidth determination using the Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). GCV values obtained amounted to 1425.726 with a minimum bandwidth of 394. Modelling generate local polynomial of order 2 with MSE value of 1408.672.Â Keywords: electrical load, local polinomial, gaussian kernel, GCV.

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