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INDONESIA
Media Statistika
Published by Universitas Diponegoro
ISSN : -     EISSN : 24770647     DOI : -
Core Subject : Science,
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management
Arjuna Subject : -
Articles 271 Documents
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[RETRACTED] COMBINATION OF SYNTHETIC MINORITY OVERSAMPLING TECHNIQUE (SMOTE) AND BACKPROPAGATION NEURAL NETWORK TO CONTRACEPTIVE IUD PREDICTION Mustaqim Mustaqim; Budi Warsito; Bayu Surarso
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 13, No 1 (2020): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1186.209 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.13.1.36-46

Abstract

[RETRACTED] Data imbalance occurs when the amount of data in a class is more than other data. The majority class is more data, while the minority class is fewer. Imbalance class will decrease the performance of the classification algorithm. Data on IUD contraceptive use is imbalanced data. National IUD failure in 2018 was 959 or 3.5% from 27.400 users. Synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) is used to balance data on IUD failure. Balanced data is then predicted with neural networks. The system is for predicting someone when using IUD whether they have a pregnancy or not. This study uses 250 data with 235 major data (not pregnant) and 15 minor data (pregnant). From 250 data divided into two parts, 225 training and 25 testing data. Minority class on training data will be duplicated to 1524%, so that the amount of minority data become balanced with  the majority data. The results of predictive with an accuracy rate of  99.9% at 1000 epoch.
PERAMALAN LANGSUNG DAN TIDAK LANGSUNG MARKET SHARE MOBIL MENGGUNAKAN ARIMAX DENGAN EFEK VARIASI KALENDER Dea Astri Titi; Heri Kuswanto; Suhartono Suhartono
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 13, No 1 (2020): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (99.603 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.13.1.47-59

Abstract

Based on BPS data, the transportation industry sector contributed to about 8.01% of Indonesia's economic growth. The rapid growth of the transportation industry is also followed by the development of the automotive industry in Indonesia. The Exclusive Lisencee Agent of the Astra International group won a market share of 57% in April 2017. PT. Astra Daihatsu Motor, which is one of its subsidiaries, has a very rapid sales increase of 15% every year until Daihatsu's market share rises to 17.3%. Data from the Gabungan Industri Kendaraan Bermotor Indonesia (Gaikindo) shows an upward trend in car sales a month before Idul Fitri. This study carried out Daihatsu's direct and indirect market share forecasting using ARIMAX with a variety of calendar effects consisting of trends, monthly seasonal effects and Idul Fitri effects. The results indicated that  indirect forecasting through forecasting the car sales for each brand and total market using ARIMAX outperforms the others and is able to capture the pattern of the testing data. The resulting SMAPE value of ARIMAX is smaller than direct forecasting and indirect forecasting using ARIMA.
Front Matter Vol. 12 No. 2 2019 Statistika, Media
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 12, No 2 (2019): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

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Abstract

Cover dan Daftar Isi Media Statistika Vol. 12 No. 2 Desember 2019
CLUSTERING OF EARTHQUAKE RISK IN INDONESIA USING K-MEDOIDS AND K-MEANS ALGORITHMS Rifa, Isna Hidayatur; Pratiwi, Hasih; Respatiwulan, Respatiwulan
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 13, No 2 (2020): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.13.2.194-205

Abstract

Earthquake is the shaking of the earth's surface due to the shift in the earth's plates. This disaster often happens in Indonesia due to the location of the country on the three largest plates in the world and nine small others which meet at an area to form a complex plate arrangement. An earthquake has several impacts which depend on the magnitude and depth. This research was, therefore, conducted to classify earthquake data in Indonesia based on the magnitudes and depths using one of the data mining techniques which is known as clustering through the application of k-medoids and k-means algorithms. However, k-medoids group data into clusters with medoid as the centroid and it involves using clustering large application (CLARA) algorithm while k-means divide data into k clusters where each object belongs to the cluster with the closest average. The results showed the best clustering for earthquake data in Indonesia based on magnitude and depth is the CLARA algorithm and five clusters were found to have total members of 2231, 1359, 914, 2392, and 199 objects for cluster 1 to cluster 5 respectively.
Front Matter Vol. 13 No. 1 2020 Statistika, Media
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 13, No 1 (2020): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

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Abstract

Cover dan Daftar Isi Media Statistika Vol. 13 No. 1 Juni 2020
SUSCEPTIBLE INFECTED RECOVERED (SIR) MODEL FOR ESTIMATING COVID-19 REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN EAST KALIMANTAN AND SAMARINDA Sifriyani, Sifriyani; Rosadi, Dedi
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 13, No 2 (2020): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.13.2.170-181

Abstract

Modeling and analysis of Covid-19 data, especially on the modeling the spread and the prediction of the total number of cases for Indonesian data, has been conducted by several researchers. However, to the best of our knowledge, it has not been studied specifically for East Kalimantan Province data. The study of the data on the level of provincial and District/City level could help the government in making policies. In this study, we estimate the Covid-19 reproduction number, calculate the rate of recovery, the rate of infection, and the rate of death of East Kalimantan Province and Samarinda City. We also provide a prediction of the peak of the infection cases and forecast the total incidence of Covid-19 cases until the end of 2020. The model used in this research is the Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model and the data used in the study was obtained from the East Kalimantan Public Health Office.
FORECASTING FARMER EXCHANGE RATE IN CENTRAL JAVA PROVINCE USING VECTOR INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE Trimono, Trimono; Sonhaji, Abdulah; Mukhaiyar, Utriweni
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 13, No 2 (2020): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.13.2.182-193

Abstract

Farmer Exchange Rate (FER) is an indicator that can be used to measure the level of farmers welfare. For every agriculture sector, FER is affected by the historical price of harvest from the corresponding sector and historical prices of other agriculture sectors. In Central Java Province, rice & palawija, horticulture, and fisheries are the largest agriculture sectors which is the main livelihood for most of the population. FER forecasting is a crucial thing to determine the level of farmers welfare in the future. One method that can be used to predict the value of a variable that is influenced by the historical value of several variables is Vector Time Series. An empirical study was conducted using FER data from the rice & palawija, horticulture and fisheries sectors for January 2011-June 2017 in Central Java Province. The results obtained show that by using the VIMA(2.1) model, the FER prediction was very accurate, with MAPE values were 1.91% (rice & palawija sector), 2.44% (horticulture sector), and 2.18% (fisheries sector).
Front Matter Vol. 13 No. 2 2020 Statistika, Media
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 13, No 2 (2020): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Cover dan Daftar Isi Media Statistika Vol. 13 No. 2 Desember 2020
IMPLEMENTATION OF LOCALLY COMPENSATED RIDGE-GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION MODEL IN SPATIAL DATA WITH MULTICOLLINEARITY PROBLEMS (Case Study: Stunting among Children Aged under Five Years in East Nusa Tenggara Province) Fadliana, Alfi; Pramoedyo, Henny; Fitriani, Rahma
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 13, No 2 (2020): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.13.2.125-135

Abstract

East Nusa Tenggara Province, according to the findings of 2013 Baseline Health Research and 2016 and 2017 Nutritional Status Surveys, was recorded as the province with the highest prevalence of stunting in Indonesia. Efforts should be made to formulate policies that are integrated with spatial aspects in order to reduce the prevalence of stunting. The LCR-GWR model approach is used by using locally compensated ridge, which were meant to adjusts to the effect of collinearity between predictor variables (i.e., the factors affecting the prevalence of stunting) in each area. Results of the analysis showed that factors affecting the prevalence of stunting in all districts/cities in East Nusa Tenggara Province are the percentage of children aged under five who were weighed ≥ 4 times, the percentage of children aged under five who receive complete basic immunization, the percentage of households consuming iodized salt, the percentage of households with decent source of drinking water and the real per capita expenditure. The analysis showed that LCR-GWR is able to produce a better model than the GWR model in overcoming local multicollinearity problems in stunting in East Nusa Tenggara Province, with lower RMSE value (0.0344) than the GWR RMSE model (3.8899).
PEMODELAN ANGKA HARAPAN HIDUP JAWA TIMUR (INDONESIA) MENGGUNAKAN REGRESI SEMIPARAMETRIK CAMPURAN SPLINE TRUNCATED DAN DERET FOURIER Nisa', Khaerun; Budiantara, I Nyoman
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 13, No 2 (2020): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.13.2.149-160

Abstract

Life expectancy is one of the indicators used to evaluate the government’s performance in improving the well-being of the population. High life expectancy in an area indicates that people in the area have been assured of health and poverty has been well overcome, and vice versa. Based on national socioeconomic survey (SUSENAS) data, showing life expectancy in East Java Province from 2009 to 2013 increased by 69.15 years to 70,19 years. Although overall life expectancy in East Java province has increased, there are still some areas that have life expectancy below 65 years. This is not from the different characteristics of each religion. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to model life expectancy in East Java using semiparametric regression with a mixed estimator of Spline Truncated and Fourier Series.  Based on the research that has been done, the results that modeling the data of life expectancy using mixed estimator of Spline Truncated and Fourier Series produced a value of R2 of 99,62% which means that the predictor variables are able to explain the response variabel life expectancy of 99.62%.

Page 17 of 28 | Total Record : 271

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