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JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN

jekp
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Published by Institut Pertanian Bogor

ISSN : 19795149 EISSN : 26862514 DOI : -

Core Subject : Economy,

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Jurnal ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan (JEKP) adalah jurnal yang berisi artikel-artikel meliputi hasil-hasil penelitian, analisis kebijakan, dan opini terkait perekonomian yang berkembang saat ini baik lingkup nasional maupun internasional. JEKP diterbitkan dua kali setiap tahunnya, yaitu periode Juli dan Desember.

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Articles 130 Documents

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FLEKSIBILITAS NILAI TUKAR DAN PENYESUAIAN TRANSAKSI BERJALAN DI INDONESIA: ANALISIS THRESHOLD VAR Farhana Zahrotunnisa; Iman Sugema; Toni Bakhtiar
JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol 4 No 2 (2015): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan
Publisher : IPB University

Estimation study about the relationship between exchange rate flexibility and current account adjustment has been through three stages, the first stage was analysis of correlation among exchange rates variability (proxied by REER and NEER) and exchange rate regimes classification. The second step was estimating the relationship that the former was mentioned with VAR as benchmark model. The third step was applying the nonlinear estimation with Threshold VAR. The results of analysis showed that exchange rate regime classification may not capture actual exchange rate variability and flexibility exchange rate can accelerate current account adjustment in Indonesia if the changes of Indonesia exchange rate less than 27.7059 (low regime) whereas in high regime exchange rate is persistent increasing so that the system between exchange rate and current account become unstable. Bank Indonesia as monetary authorities must keep the changes of exchange rate less than 27.7059, due to exchange rate can affect current account adjustment, so can anticipate if there is current account deficit in Indonesia economy. Keywords : Exchange Rate Flexibility, Current Account Adjustment, Exchange Rate Regime, Classification, Threshold VAR

KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY (KBE), KONVERGENSI, DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI : STUDI KASUS DI ASEAN PLUS THREE (PERIODE TAHUN 2001-2014) Zulva Azijah; Muhammad Findi Alexandi; Toni Irawan
JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol 4 No 2 (2015): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan
Publisher : IPB University

Economic growth and convergence are the major issues in the global economic. Economic integration is a form of cooperation between countries in order to achieve welfare and prosperity. In 1997, ASEAN Plus Three has been established as an economic integration in the field of innovation and ICT. The aims of this study are to analyze the conditional convergence (β) and covergence (σ) and to consider the role of Knowledge-Based Economy on economic growth. This study uses annual data from 2001 to 2014 with a GMM approach. The case study of this research are the members of ASEAN Plus Three. The resultsof conditional convergence (β) estimation showed that the best dynamic panel criteria is not bias, valid dan consistent. The coefficient of conditional convergence (β) with KBE indicators that is 0.9917 has convergence rate of 0.8%. On the convergence (σ), the result showed that in the period 2001 to 2014, there has been a convergence in real GDP per capita that can be seen from the coefficient variation values that tend to be declined.

PENGARUH FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT DAN AFTA TERHADAP KESEMPATAN KERJA SEKTORAL DI ASEAN 5 Ilhamdi Ilhamdi; Rina Oktaviani; Yeti Lis Purnamadewi
JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol 4 No 2 (2015): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan
Publisher : IPB University

This study aims to analyze the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) ‎and ‎ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) on sectoral employment in ASEAN ‎‎5. The analysis ‎focused on five main sectors, namely agriculture, mining, ‎manufacturing, ‎construction and service sectors. This paper uses panel data ‎approach with Fixed Effect Model. Variable used include employment as an ‎edogenous variable, while GDP, wages and AFTA as exogenous variables. Cross section data that are used in this study consist of ASEAN 5 countries, ‎namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam with periods of ‎observation as much as 9 years, from 2006 until 2014.‎The result of this paper that FDI, GDP, wages and AFTA have different ‎impacts in each sector. FDI has positive impact on employment in service sector. ‎GDP has positive impact on employment in manufacturing, construction and ‎service sectors. While GDP in the agricultural and mining sectors has negative ‎impact on employment. The wage has a positive impact on employment in the ‎mining and agricultural sectors. ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) that took ‎place in 2010 has a positive impact on employment in the manufacturing and ‎mining sectors.‎Foreign Direct Investment is one factor to overcome employment issues in ‎ASEAN 5, especially in service sector. While GDP becomes an important variable ‎in enhancing ASEAN 5 employment in the manufacturing, construction and ‎services. Increasing wages can be applied on agriculture and mining as it has a ‎positive impact on employment. AFTA that has taken place is proper policy for the ‎ASEAN 5 to encourage economic growth in the mining and manufacturing ‎sectors that have an impact on increasing demand of labor in the sector.‎

DAMPAK KETERBUKAAN PERDAGANGAN DAN KINERJA MANUFAKTUR DI INDONESIA Wahyu Dyah Novitasari; Sri Hartoyo; Lukytawati Anggraeni
JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol 4 No 2 (2015): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan
Publisher : IPB University

This study aims to analyze the impact of trade openness on the performance of manufacturing in Indonesia. In the study, performance and manufacturing growth indicated by the index of competitiveness and manufacturing added value. In aggregate, over the last few years, trade performance of Indonesia’s manufacturing sector has decreased due to the low index of competitiveness and comparative advantage. The empirical results using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with Error Correction Approach (ECM) shows that trade openness consistently negative effect on manufacturing value added, implicitly increase one percent change in trade openness would be deficit of changes in manufacturing value added of 4.26 billion rupiah, ceteris paribus. Furthermore, the amount of labor consistently positive effect on manufacturing value added, while fixed capital variable and value-added of previous lag (a year earlier) take effect by unstable in the long term as well as short then the crisis has also negatively affect the manufacturing value added.

ANALISIS INTEGRASI BURSA SAHAM ASEAN 5 Ardina Puspitasari; Hermanto Siregar; Trias Andati
JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol 4 No 2 (2015): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan
Publisher : IPB University

This study aimed to analyze the integration of the stock markets of ASEAN 5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines) associated with the event of dropped world oil prices in 2014. This study using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to analyze market integration 5 stocks with variable stock market. In this study uses a dummy variable of oil price with the value of 0 for the period 2009 to 2013 where world oil prices are still stable and the value of 1 for the period 2014 to 2015 where a decline in world oil prices. Results from this study shows that there is a relationship between the stock market cointegration ASEAN 5 during the study period that’s mean that there is integration among ASEAN 5 stock markets. Indonesia's stock market is influenced by Thailand and Singapore in the long term. Dummy variables significantly influence the JCI during the short term.

ANALISIS INKLUSI KEUANGAN DAN PEMERATAAN PENDAPATAN DI INDONESIA Bintan Badriatul Ummah; Nunung Nuryartono; Lukytawati Anggraeni
JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol 4 No 1 (2015): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan
Publisher : IPB University

Recent study showed that increasing access and usage of banking services reduce income inequality. Nowdays banking access in Indonesia is increasing but income equality gap is widening. Therefore, by using secondary data from 33 provinces 2007- 2011, this paper aims to measure the level of access and usage for financial services across provinces in Indonesia by Index of Financial Inclusion, analyze the factors that affect financial inclusion by panel tobit regression, and describe the relationship between financial inclusion and income distribution in Indonesia. The results show that the level of financial inclusion in Indonesia is classified as low. The size of the economy and income inequality positively affect the level of financial inclusion. Opposite the research hypothesis, widening income inequality lead to higher financial inclusion in Indonesia. Moreover, the number of mobile phone and the internet user affect positively the level of financial inclusion in Indonesia. Income inequality and financial inclusion has a one-way relationship, income inequality affects financial inclusion in Indonesia but does not vice versa. Keywords : Financial Inclusion, income inequality

ANALISIS FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI HARGA DAN INTEGRASI HARGA OLEIN Desak Putu Ristami Paramita; Nunung Nuryartono; Noer Azam Achsani
JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol 4 No 1 (2015): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan
Publisher : IPB University

Olein production increased by 107.5 percent from 2002 to 2013. There was a change in consumption patterns where the consumption of olein intended for export has risen from only 39 percent in 2002 to 65 percent in 2013. In the beginning of 2008, olein prices increased due to the global financial crisis. In the end of 2008, olein prices decreased but since then olein prices fluctuations until the end of 2014. Many factors affecting the price fluctuations such as macroeconomic and microeconomic variables. Commodity market participants need to take action in response to price fluctuations by participating in commodity futures trading. Olein futures trading commodity in Indonesia is not well developed. This is indicated by small volumes of the transaction of olein futures contracts in Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (ICDX) causing market participants to not using ICDX futures prices as a reference. The participants actually use the price of the Rotterdam exchange for their transactions of buying and selling. Therefore, this study aims to analyze factors influencing olein prices and analyze olein prices integration by using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method. Results showed that exchange rates, interest rates, money supply, CPO prices, and Indonesia's GDP affect olein prices. In addition, there is an integration between the physical prices, futures prices, and world reference prices in the long term. Key words : Factors Affecting Price, Olein, Price Integration, VECM

PERAN INDONESIA DALAM RANTAI NILAI GLOBAL PRODUK ELEKTRONIK Rizki Putri Nurdiati; Rina Oktaviani; Sahara Sahara
JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol 4 No 1 (2015): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan
Publisher : IPB University

Globalization has transformed the structure of industry into global integration of socalled global value chains (GVCs). Some literatures suggest that electronic industry is known as a successful industry in establishing global value chain. Electronic industry is one of leading cluster in driving economic growth in Indonesia. This study aimed to analyze the role of Indonesia in electronic global value chain according to its share towards global electronic industry, linkages, and value added distribution. An input output analysis by using the Asian International Input Output Table 2005 was employed to analyze the share of each country in electronic global value chain, inter-sector linkages, value added, also output and income multiplier. The result showed that Indonesia had low participation in electronic global value chain. Indonesia’s output share was the lowest among all countries which resulted in low valueadded acquisition. Indonesia played the role as the input user from the various sectors. It is suggested that Indonesia electronic manufacture sector should be integrated with the input supplier sectors. Electronic computing equipment sector can be the main priority in enhancing Indonesia electronic manufacture sector since it has the biggest effect to economic growth. Keywords: electronic, global value chain, Indonesia, input output analysis

ANALISIS DAYA SAING SEKTOR INDUSTRI PRIORITAS INDONESIA DALAM MENGHADAPI PASAR ASEAN Isventina Isventina; Nunung Nuryartono; Manuntun Parulian Hutagaol
JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol 4 No 1 (2015): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan
Publisher : IPB University

This study aimed to analyze the factors that influence competitiveness of Indonesia’s priority industrial sector in facing the ASEAN market by using Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and panel data analysis. The study period was in 2001-2013 and variables are used, among others, the export price of products in the industry priorities, labor productivity, fixed capital and riil exchange rate. Based on the calculation of the level of competitiveness by using RCA, showed that the Indonesia's priority industrial sectors have strong competitive (RCA>1) in the ASEAN market, except for the chemical industry and machinery and equipment industry. That is, Indonesia has a comparative advantage in most of the priority industrial sectors, so that it can be used to support the government's strategy to expand the national industrial market to the ASEAN region. While the results of the panel data analysis showed that the export price is the most influential factor for the competitiveness of priority industrial sectors in Indonesia. In this case, the export price is a reflection of the production cost. The high of production cost indicates that the purchase price of inputs by exporting companies is also high, so that the export price was high. Because the essence of competitiveness is relatively low cost, the high export prices showed a decreasing competitiveness. Other factors that affect are the real exchange rate and labor productivity. Rupiah depreciation can encourage the growth of exports, which in turn can improve competitiveness. Meanwhile, the development of human resources that make industrial policy was originally based on cheap labor and natural resources can be developed into a productivity-based industries are supported by qualified human resources as well as science and high technology. On the other hand, the addition of variable fixed capital does not affect the competitiveness of priority industrial sectors. This is because the impact of the increased competitiveness of the addition of fixed capital in a given year is not directly felt in the year, but will be felt in the next few years. Thus, the strategy can be formulated to improve the competitiveness of the priority industrial sectors, including developing the upstream industry and among industry based on natural resources and the control of exports of raw materials, develop human resources industry players in the Indonesia’s priority industrial sectors with training and innovation activities, developing downstream industries as well as the increase in value-added products in the priority industrial sectors through product diversification and improve the pattern of cooperation with the manufacturers of other countries in the ASEAN region through the export promotion. Keywords: ASEAN Integration, Manufacturing Industry, Competitiveness, Panel Data Analysis

THE IMPACT ANALYSIS OF ASEAN-JAPAN COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP (AJCEP) FOR TRADE FLOW AND ECONOMIC GROWTH’S CONVERGENCE Tri Arifin Darsono; Dedi Budiman Hakim; Wiwiek Rindayati
JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol 4 No 1 (2015): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan
Publisher : IPB University

Free Trade Area (FTA) between ASEAN and Japan, which is called ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership (AJCEP), has been established since 2002 as goods and services flow gateway. AJCEP plays an important role to bring the development, economic security, and economic power. It can also boost the economic growth among member of ASEAN-Japan. The objectives of this research were to analyze the factors that can influence the ASEAN-Japan countries import with non-member, to analyze the occurrence of trade creation and trade diversion in trading sector among ASEAN-Japan countries with non-member, and to analyze the occurrence of economic growth's convergence in ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership (AJCEP) not only among ASEAN-Japan countries, but also with non-member trading partners. The Gravity Model was used to analyze import factors and observing the occurrence of trade creation or trade diversion. The GMM model was used to observe the convergence of economic growth. The research are used Panel data methods with periods 2000 until 2013 in 13 countries. The research found that the coefficient values in trade creation and trade diversion dummy were 0.92 and 31.41. The positive value in trade creation and trade diversion indicated the occurrence of trade creation in the import flow among ASEAN-Japan countries and non-member trading partners, as well as finding the convergence of economic growth among ASEAN-Japan countries. The convergence level was of 0.0153417 can be interpreted that the velocity to reach steady state condition was 2.00 percent per year with the assumption of ceteris paribus. The duration to reach convergence condition or half life of convergence was about 34 years. The research found the trade creation from AJCEP agreement and the occurrence of economic growth’s convergence. Based on the result, Indonesian government would likely to make relationships among countries member and non-member to invest in real sector that will boost economic growth in Indonesia. Keywords: ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership, Growth’s convergence, gravity model, GMM model, trade creation, trade diversion.

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