Articles
<![CDATA[EFEK THRESHOLD INFLASI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI REGIONAL DI INDONESIA ]]>
<![CDATA[Kusumatrisna, Adam Luthfi]]>;
<![CDATA[Sugema, Iman]]>;
<![CDATA[Pasaribu, Syamsul Hidayat]]>
<![CDATA[ Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol 27 No 1 (2019) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Economic Research Center, the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (P2E-LIPI) ]]>
Show Abstract
|
Download Original
|
Original Source
|
Check in Google Scholar
|
Full PDF (528.8 KB)
|
DOI: 10.14203/JEP.27.1.2019.43-52
<![CDATA[Penelitian terbaru menyatakan bahwa hubungan antara inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi tidaklah linier. Ketika inflasi melebihi ambang batas tertentu, akan berdampak negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menyelidiki hubungan linear dan non-linear antara inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia menggunakan data panel provinsi. Hubungan linier diuji menggunakan panel fixed effect model sementara hubungan non-linear menggunakan panel threshold fixed effect model. Saat dilakukan uji secara linear, inflasi di Indonesia memiliki efek negatif pada pertumbuhan ekonomi begitu juga dengan pertumbuhan rasio pengeluaran pemerintah dan pertumbuhan penduduk. Sementara pertumbuhan investasi dan pertumbuhan keterbukaan ekonomi memiliki efek positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Ketika melakukan uji non-linear, inflasi di Indonesia berdampak negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi hanya ketika melebihi 9,57 dan 9,59 persen. Sementara itu saat inflasi melebihi 5,09 persen, pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia melambat. Kebijakan pengendalian inflasi tetap harus dilakukan untuk mengurangi dampak buruk inflasi, karena inflasi yang tinggi dan berfluktuasi tidak baik bagi perekonomian. Studi ini menyarankan pihak terkait seperti Bank Indonesia (BI) dan Tim Pemantauan dan Pengendalian Inflasi Daerah (TPID) untuk berhati-hati saat inflasi mulai melebihi angka 5,09 persen dan waspada saat inflasi melebihi angka 9,57 persen dan 9,59 persen. ]]>
<![CDATA[Krisis Keuangan Global 2008-2009 dan Implikasinya pada Perekonomian Indonesia ]]>
<![CDATA[Iman Sugema]]>
<![CDATA[ Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia Vol. 17 No. 3 (2012): Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Institut Pertanian Bogor ]]>
Show Abstract
|
Download Original
|
Original Source
|
Check in Google Scholar
|
Full PDF (343.538 KB)
<![CDATA[The global financial crisis that occurred in 2008-2009 was the worst financial crisis in 80 years, even the economists in the world called it as the mother of all crises. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States eventually manifested into a world-wide financial crisis. No single country is free from the effects, including Indonesia. This study aims to analyze the global financial crisis, the sources of the cause, the mechanisms of the crisis emergence, and to identify the implications of the crisis on financial sector and real sector, as well as employment and poverty. The results showed that the country has a relatively high poverty rate and unemployment rate than it should. If there is no crisis, the level of poverty alleviation and reduction of unemployment should be at a better rate. In addition, it was found that the impact of the global crisis relatively stronger to the rural households than to urban households. Therefore, because the rural labor market is much more flexible than that in urban areas, the impact of global crisis on rural unemployment rates is relatively weaker as well.]]>
<![CDATA[FLEKSIBILITAS NILAI TUKAR DAN PENYESUAIAN TRANSAKSI BERJALAN DI INDONESIA: ANALISIS THRESHOLD VAR ]]>
<![CDATA[Farhana Zahrotunnisa]]>;
<![CDATA[Iman Sugema]]>;
<![CDATA[Toni Bakhtiar]]>
<![CDATA[ JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol 4 No 2 (2015): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[IPB University ]]>
Show Abstract
|
Download Original
|
Original Source
|
Check in Google Scholar
|
Full PDF (1295.625 KB)
|
DOI: 10.29244/jekp.4.2.2015.112-139
<![CDATA[Estimation study about the relationship between exchange rate flexibility and current account adjustment has been through three stages, the first stage was analysis of correlation among exchange rates variability (proxied by REER and NEER) and exchange rate regimes classification. The second step was estimating the relationship that the former was mentioned with VAR as benchmark model. The third step was applying the nonlinear estimation with Threshold VAR. The results of analysis showed that exchange rate regime classification may not capture actual exchange rate variability and flexibility exchange rate can accelerate current account adjustment in Indonesia if the changes of Indonesia exchange rate less than 27.7059 (low regime) whereas in high regime exchange rate is persistent increasing so that the system between exchange rate and current account become unstable. Bank Indonesia as monetary authorities must keep the changes of exchange rate less than 27.7059, due to exchange rate can affect current account adjustment, so can anticipate if there is current account deficit in Indonesia economy. Keywords : Exchange Rate Flexibility, Current Account Adjustment, Exchange Rate Regime, Classification, Threshold VAR]]>
<![CDATA[ANALISIS FRONTIER EFFICIENCY INDUSTRI PERBANKAN INDONESIA DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE DISTRIBUTION FREE APPROACH ]]>
<![CDATA[Agus Herta Sumarto]]>;
<![CDATA[Iman Sugema]]>
<![CDATA[ JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol 2 No 2 (2013): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[IPB University ]]>
Show Abstract
|
Download Original
|
Original Source
|
Check in Google Scholar
|
Full PDF (1387.4 KB)
|
DOI: 10.29244/jekp.2.2.2013.176-195
<![CDATA[As an intermediary institution, bank has a very vital role in the economic development of a country so bank has to operate efficiently. The efficiency analysis can be conducted with the three approaches, namely cost efficiency, profit efficiency, and alternative profit efficiency. The three approaches can measured with two methode, parametric and non parametric. By using parametric methode (Distribution Free Approach), cost efficiency of 107 commercial banks operating for 10 years (2002- 2011), the average cost efficiency of banks in Indonesia is 0.6729. While the average value of the profit efficiency in Indonesian banks is 0.96363 or more efficient than cost efficiency. The score of alternative profit efficiency Indonesian banks is 0.965957. The cost efficiency of commercial banks on average have no strong correlation with all financial ratios of banks. The profit efficiency have a strong relationship with financial ratios ROA and BOPO. Financial performance of the bank's ROE ratio has a moderate correlation with the level of profit efficiency. While the level of alternative profit efficiency have a strong relationship with financial performance ratios ROE, ROA, and ROA. NIM ratio has a low relationship with alternative profit efficiency. Keyword: Distributin Free Approach, Cost Efficiency, Profit Efficiency, and Alternative Profit Efficiency.]]>
<![CDATA[STRUCTURAL BREAKS DAN KETIDAKSTABILAN PERMINTAAN UANG DI INDONESIA ]]>
<![CDATA[Deviyantini Deviyantini]]>;
<![CDATA[Iman Sugema]]>;
<![CDATA[Tony Irawan]]>
<![CDATA[ JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol 6 No 2 (2017): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[IPB University ]]>
Show Abstract
|
Download Original
|
Original Source
|
Check in Google Scholar
|
Full PDF (1122.59 KB)
|
DOI: 10.29244/jekp.6.2.2017.47-60
<![CDATA[This research aims to identify the sources of instability of the money demand function (M1 and M2) due to structural changes that occur as a result of economic shocks. These shocks are technically shown by the presence of structural breaks in the data and can lead the parameters non-constancy. The instability of the money demand function was analyzed using the Gregory and Hansen test. The source of instability of the money demand was identified using time varying parameter model. This research used quarterly time series data from 1993Q1 to 2013Q4. The results show that the money demand function (M1 dan M2) is not cointegrated (unstable) and the source of the instability is exchange rate variable. Keywords: Stability money demand, Structural breaks, Time varying parameter model]]>
<![CDATA[KEUNGGULAN SISTEM KEUANGAN BERBASIS BAGI HASIL DAN IMPLIKASINYA PADA DISTRIBUSI PENDAPATAN ]]>
<![CDATA[Iman Sugema]]>;
<![CDATA[Toni Bakhtiar]]>;
<![CDATA[Jaenal Effendi]]>
<![CDATA[ Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan Vol 13, No 3 (2009): September 2009 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[University of Merdeka Malang ]]>
Show Abstract
|
Download Original
|
Original Source
|
Check in Google Scholar
|
Full PDF (248.424 KB)
|
DOI: 10.26905/jkdp.v13i3.1097
<![CDATA[In this paper we attempted to answer a fundamental question whether banking systembased on a profi t-loss sharing (PLS) could improve welfare than an interest based banking system bydeveloping a rigorous theoretical modeling. In the framework of production technology we fi rstlyshowed that under production certainty and competitive market both PLS and interest based systemswere effi cient and right. However, under an uncertain situation due to a productivity shock,we proved that only the PLS system was right. We verifi ed our result by quantifying the effects onincome distribution for both lender and borrower. Two indicators, namely the standard error of distributionand Gini ratio were considered. We showed that the conventional credit market led to aserious income distribution problem where lenders did not enjoy the variability in income and didnot bear any risk, but in contrast, borrowers bore all the risk. On the other side, PLS system sharedthe risk between lenders and borrowers. In the end of the analysis, we proposed an instrument thatwould improve the performance of a PLS system from lenders perspective by introducing a so-calledrisk pooling mechanism.]]>
<![CDATA[Analisis Perbandingan Excess Return Jakarta Islamic Index dan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan ]]>
<![CDATA[Galishia Putry]]>;
<![CDATA[Iman Sugema]]>;
<![CDATA[Deni Lubis]]>
<![CDATA[ AL-MUZARA'AH Vol. 2 No. 2 (2014): AL-MUZARA'AH (December 2014) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Department of Islamic Economics, IPB University ]]>
Show Abstract
|
Download Original
|
Original Source
|
Check in Google Scholar
|
Full PDF (541.774 KB)
|
DOI: 10.29244/jam.2.2.121-134
<![CDATA[Indonesia Stock Exchange statistics show that Islamic stock trading reached a value of around 59 trillion rupiahs. The excalation index of JII (Jakarta Islamic Index) is not follow by an increase in market capitalization of stocks listed on the JII. This is the question for investor who want to know how it compares to the performance of Jakarta Composite Index (JCI). This study analyzes the excess return that represents the return expected by an investor after investing in certain assets using descriptive analysis and Ordinary least square (OLS) regression of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The descriptive analysis showed that in the same risk-free rate, investors who invest in stocks listed in JII can expect a higher return than the return JCI, while regression analysis shows investors do not expect the JII’s excess return to be different from JCI’s. This suggests that the selection criteria used by Bapepam LK (now OJK) and Indonesia Stock exchange does not affect the performance of return JII.]]>
<![CDATA[Dampak Kondisi Makroekonomi terhadap Deposito Perbankan Syariah di Indonesia ]]>
<![CDATA[Zaki Abdullah]]>;
<![CDATA[Iman Sugema]]>;
<![CDATA[Asep Nurhalim]]>
<![CDATA[ AL-MUZARA'AH Vol. 6 No. 1 (2018): AL-MUZARA'AH (June 2018) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Department of Islamic Economics, IPB University ]]>
Show Abstract
|
Download Original
|
Original Source
|
Check in Google Scholar
|
Full PDF (626.537 KB)
|
DOI: 10.29244/jam.6.1.29-39
<![CDATA[Changes in macroeconomic conditions have an impact towards financial industry, particularly in the banking industry. This research aims to look at the impact of global financial crisis and macreconomic variables towards the total deposits of Islamic banking in Indonesia with the VECM method. The period of this study using monthly data from January 2006 until December 2016. The results showed that the global financial crisis has no effect towards the total deposits of Islamic banking in Indonesia. Then, based on the analysis of Impulse Response Function (IRF), the response of total deposits of Islamic banking in Indonesia towards inflation, equivalent rate and lending rate is positive. While the shocks level of conventional banking interest rate and industrial growth is negatively responded by total deposits in Islamic banking. The Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) analysis results showed that equivalent rate and interest rate offered by each banking system give most contributed among other variables.]]>
<![CDATA[Structural Breaks dan Ketidakstabilan Permintaan Uang di Indonesia ]]>
<![CDATA[Deviyantini, Deviyantini]]>;
<![CDATA[Sugema, Iman]]>;
<![CDATA[Irawan, Tony]]>
<![CDATA[ Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol. 17, No. 2 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[UI Scholars Hub ]]>
Show Abstract
|
Download Original
|
Original Source
|
Check in Google Scholar
<![CDATA[This research aims to identify the sources of instability of the money demand function (M1 and M2) due to structural changes that occur as a result of economic shocks. These shocks, are technically shown by the presence of structural breaks in the data and can lead the parameters non-constancy. The instability of the money demand function was analyzed using the Gregory and Hansen test. The source of instability of the money demand was identified using time varying parameter model. This research used quarterly time series data from 1993Q1 to 2013Q4. The result of Gregory and Hansen test indicates there is no long term equilibrium between variables (money demand, income, domestic interest rate, foreign interest rate, exchange rate, and inflation) in the model, neither M1 nor M2 model. On the other word, money demand function is unstable. The source of the instability is exchange rate variable.]]>
<![CDATA[Analisis Pengaruh Ketidakpastian Global dan Perkembangan Keuangan terhadap Investasi Asing Langsung di Indonesia: Institut Pertanian Bogor ]]>
<![CDATA[Noviyanti, Fuzi]]>;
<![CDATA[Sugema, Iman]]>;
<![CDATA[Irawan, Tony]]>
<![CDATA[ Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan Vol. 12 No. 2 (2023): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[IPB University ]]>
Show Abstract
|
Download Original
|
Original Source
|
Check in Google Scholar
|
DOI: 10.29244/jekp.12.2.2023.122-145
<![CDATA[The world is currently facing unprecedented uncertainty in social, political, and economic aspects, which continuously evolve every year owing to extraordinary events that impact countries worldwide. In contrast, The growth strategy of a country organizes must include Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), especially in Indonesia. The fluctuation in foreign investment in Indonesia indicates that foreign investors also consider growing global uncertainty alongside the development of Indonesia’s financial sector. This study examines the relationship between global uncertainty and financial development on FDI in Indonesia from 1997 to 2020 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The results indicate that global uncertainty significantly negatively impacts Indonesia’s FDI in the short and long terms. However, global economic policy uncertainty positively influences Indonesia’s FDI in the long term. This indicates that Indonesia has become an attractive alternative for foreign investors during global economic policy uncertainty. Regarding financial development, the amount of credit provided by the domestic banking sector to the private sector in Indonesia positively influences Indonesia’s FDI in both the short and long terms. This demonstrates that Indonesia’s financial condition and infrastructure can determine foreign investors’ decisions to invest in Indonesia.]]>
