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Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics
Published by Politeknik Statistika STIS
ISSN : 27721970     EISSN : 27721970     DOI : https://doi.org/10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2022i1
Core Subject : Economy, Humanities, Science, Social,
Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences
prosiding seminar ini bertujuan untuk menghasilkan berbagai pemikiran solutif, inovatif, dan adaptif terkait isu, strategi, dan metode yang memanfaatkan official statistics
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 729 Documents
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Analisis Variabel yang Memengaruhi Konsumsi Energi Terbarukan di Indonesia Menggunakan Error Correction Model Arrohmah, Laila; Sukim, Sukim
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2052

Abstract

Energy has an important role to support life. Energy consumption that focuses on non-renewable natural resources or what is usually called fossil energy can have negative effects on the environment. For this reason, alternative efforts are needed to provide energy that can replace it, namely renewable energy. The aim of this research is to analyze variables that are thought to influence renewable energy consumption in Indonesia in 2003-2021. The analysis is carried out descriptively and inferentially. Descriptive analysis displays a line chart to provide an overview of developments in the volume of renewable energy consumption in Indonesia. Inferential analysis was carried out in a time series using the Error Correction Model (ECM). The results of the analysis show that in the long term the variables economic growth, population, fossil energy consumption, and average years of schooling have an influence on renewable energy consumption in Indonesia on 2003 2021. In the short term, the variables economic growth, fossil energy consumption, and average years of schooling influence renewable energy consumption in Indonesia on 2003- 2021.
Aplikasi Model ARIMA dalam Peramalan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) Pertambangan dan Penggalian Kalimantan Selatan Hayati, Lia Aulia; Agustina, Neli
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2055

Abstract

The Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of the mining and quarrying sector is one of the leading sectors in South Kalimantan. However, the limitations in mining and quarrying resources pose a threat to the economy of South Kalimantan. Forecasting is conducted to assess the prospects of the mining and quarrying sector, especially since the government's National Medium-Term Development Plan for 2020-2024 targets an economic growth rate for the mining sector of 1.9 - 2.0 percent. This study aims to forecast the GRDP of the mining and quarrying sector in South Kalimantan using the ARIMA model. The research results indicate that the best model is ARIMA (2,1,4) with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) accuracy level of 5.054 percent. The GRDP of the mining and quarrying sector is projected to continue increasing in 2024. The findings of this study are expected to provide information for stakeholders to formulate relevant policies to sustain and enhance the mining sector, particularly in South Kalimantan, given its significant employment generation capacity.
Pengaruh Dana Desa dan Faktor Ekonomi Lainnya terhadap Ketimpangan Pendapatan di Perdesaan Indonesia Tahun 2015-2022 Salsabila, Sausan; Arcana, I Made
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2060

Abstract

Income inequality in Indonesia in 2009-2015 fluctuated and tended to increase, especially in rural areas. Therefore, since 2015 the government has allocated village funds as an strategic effort to overcome income inequality in rural areas. Although there has been a decrease in income inequality in rural areas, the downward trend is relatively small and tends to stagnate every year. This study aims to obtain an overview of income inequality in rural areas and analyze the influence of village fund distribution supported by other economic factors on income inequality by applying panel data regression in the period 2015-2022 with a provincies analysis unit. The research results showed that village funds per capita and average number of years of schooling in rural areas have a significant negative effect on income inequality in rural areas, while the effect of poverty levels and per capita expenditure of the population in rural area is positive and significant. The government is expected to design more effective programs, such as targeted subsidies, to support income equality.
Peramalan Nilai Tukar Petani Subsektor Tanaman Pangan di Nusa Tenggara Timur Menggunakan Metode SARIMA Muzaki, Fais; Agustina, Neli
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2064

Abstract

The economy in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) is dominated by the agricultural sector with the largest contribution to the NTT PDRB in 2023. In the same year NTT became the province with the lowest farmer’s terms of trade (NTP) and becoming a benchmark of farmer welfare in NTT is not good enough. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the general picture of NTPP in NTT in the January 2016 – June 2024 data period and predict some future period with SARIMA method. Forecasts with the ARIMA model (0,1,0)(0,1,1)12 produced a MAPE of 2,3553%. The results of the forecasts for the next year for the period July 2024 – June 2025, indicate that the NTPP figure is below 100, meaning that food crops farmers in the NTT are not well enough. The outcome of this forecast is expected to be considered by the government in an effort to improve the well-being of food crops farmers.
Pengaruh Strategi Pengembangan Pariwisata terhadap PAD Sektor Pariwisata di Sepuluh Provinsi Destinasi Wisata Prioritas Tahun 2018-2022 Rahmat, Ervan Nur; Agustina, Neli
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2065

Abstract

Tourism is a potential sector to improve the Indonesian economy. The Indonesian government has made efforts to develop tourism by appointing ten priority tourist destinations. However, the contribution of tourism PAD to PAD is still relatively very less. This study aims to analyze the overview of tourism PAD performance and the influence of tourism seen from the 4A components, namely attraction, amenities, access, and ancillary to PAD in ten priority tourist destination provinces. The results showed that Tourism PAD in the provinces of ten priority tourist destinations still fluctuates and has a very insufficient contribution. The estimation results of panel data regression with the Fixed Effect Model show that the number of visitors to tourist attractions, the occupancy rate of star hotel rooms, and the length of the road have a positive influence on PAD. This research is expected to provide information for related parties in determining policies to increase PAD through tourism, especially in the 10 provinces of priority tourist destinations.
Uji Kausalitas Hubungan Antara Penyesuaian-Penyesuaian Dalam Metode Perbandingan Data Pasar Dan Opini Nilai Properti Komersial Setijono, Djoko
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2067

Abstract

Despite the existence of publications presenting methods and/or techniques to determine the magnitude of certain adjustments in a valuation using Comparable Method, there are few (or perhaps none) publications that have attempted to test the causal relationship between valuation adjustments with the opinion of market value. Such lack or scarcity might be caused by the fact that the testing requires the researcher to directly observes the logic of the respondents when making adjustments prior to reaching a conclusion regarding the market value of an asset (property). Multiple Regression Analysis conducted on the answers of 61 respondents, collected using Survey Experiment, concludes that Dimensional Adjustment and Location/Position Adjustment have significant causal relationship with Market Value estimate. Hence, professional valuers need to pay attention towards dimensional and location/position equality (comparability) when selecting which comparable data to use in the valuation of a commercial property and considerably determine the magnitude of those adjustments.
Pengaruh Kondisi Keuangan Pemerintah dan Kualitas Demokrasi terhadap Kesejahteraan Wilayah di Indonesia Tahun 2022 dengan Pendekatan Structural Equation Modeling-Partial Least Square (SEM PLS) Mandiri, Angga Jati; Sirait, Timbang
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2071

Abstract

Indonesia, adopting concept of welfare state, still has welfare issues, making Indonesia's regional welfare worse than several Southeast Asian countries. Indicates that Indonesia's regional welfare still needs to be improved. The approach is not only through socio-economic aspects, but also through political aspects. This study offers a political approach to financial sector with government financial conditions and mediating role of non-financial sector with quality of democracy. This study purposes to determine direct and indirect effects of government financial conditions and quality of democracy on regional welfare in Indonesia 2022. The analysis uses Structural Equation Modeling-Partial Least Square (SEM-PLS) approach with 34 provinces in Indonesia as unit analysis. The results show that both have direct positive significant effect on regional welfare. Government financial condition has a direct positive significant effect on quality of democracy. Also, quality of democracy significantly mediates the effect of government financial conditions on regional welfare in Indonesia.
Analisis Variabel-variabel yang Memengaruhi Insiden Tuberkulosis di Provinsi Jawa Timur Tahun 2022 Karim, Abdul; Utomo, Agung Priyo
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2072

Abstract

Tuberculosis is one of the most dangerous infectious diseases in the world and is still a major problem in Indonesia. In 2022, the number of tuberculosis cases in East Java became the second highest nationally and became the province with the highest increase in tuberculosis incidence in Indonesia. This study aims to model the incidence of tuberculosis in East Java Province in 2022. The data used originated from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of East Java and the East Java Provincial Health Office. The Robust MM-Estimator method is used in this study. The results showed that the population density variables, the average number of cigarettes per week smoked by residents aged 5 years and older who smoked tobacco, and the number of new OD-HIV cases were found to have a significant positive effect on the incidence of tuberculosis in East Java.. The variable of the percentage of households with a floor area per capita ≤ 7.2 m2 had a significant negative effect on the incidence of tuberculosis in East Java.
Dampak Kebijakan Ekspor Bijih Nikel Indonesia Terhadap Ekspor Nikel Olahan Ananda, Putri; Tri Wahyuni, Ribut Nurul
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2073

Abstract

Indonesia, the world's largest nickel supplier, has implemented three policies regarding nickel ore exports in order to boost the export of refined nickel, which has a higher added value (nickel downstream). The objective of this study is to assess the impact of these policies on Indonesian processed nickel export volumes from January 2012 to December 2023. Interrupted time series analysis is the methodology used. The test results indicate that the policy of prohibiting nickel ore exports in 2014 has the potential to decrease the volume of Indonesian processed nickel exports in the first month of its implementation. The implementation of the relaxation policy for exports of nickel ore grade <1.7% also contributed to the decline in the trend in the volume of Indonesian processed nickel exports from 2017 to 2019. In the interim, the policy of prohibiting the export of nickel ore with a grade of less than 1.7%, which was implemented on January 1, 2020, has the potential to elevate the volume of Indonesian processed nickel exports. Therefore, implementing a prohibition on the export of nickel ore with a grade of less than 1.7% since 2020 can strengthen the nickel downstream program, as it has been shown to increase Indonesia's exports of processed nickel. This phenomenon arises as nickel smelters enhance their capacity to process nickel ore.
Determinan Prevalensi Stunting di Nusa Tenggara Tahun 2023 Singrapati, Lalu Riza; Astuti, Erni Tri
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2077

Abstract

Indonesia is one of the countries still facing high prevalence rates of stunting. The Nusa Tenggara Archipelago significantly contributes to the high prevalence of stunting in Indonesia, with rates far above the national average. The factors causing the high prevalence of stunting in the Nusa Tenggara Archipelago need to be identified, considering the spatial aspects, as this region consists of many islands with diverse topographies and geographical characteristics. This study aims to identify the factors influencing the prevalence of stunting in the Nusa Tenggara Archipelago, taking into account the spatial aspects. The analysis method used is spatial regression analysis using the Spatial Error Model (SEM). The results of this study reveal that there is a spatial effect on the prevalence of stunting among children in the Nusa Tenggara Archipelago, indicated by a Global Moran’s I value of 0.420. The districts/cities with the highest stunting categories are mostly located in East Nusa Tenggara Province, with a rate of 50 percent, while in West Nusa Tenggara Province it is only 3.13 percent. Variables affecting stunting prevalence include the percentage of infants receiving early initiation of breastfeeding, the percentage of infants receiving exclusive breastfeeding, the percentage of children under five with a Child Health Book, average years of schooling for women, per capita expenditure, the percentage of households not using electricity, the prevalence of food insecurity, and the average fish consumption per capita per week. Based on the study results, government intervention is urgently needed to address the issue of stunting in the Nusa Tenggara Archipelago.

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