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Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika
Published by Universitas Bina Bangsa
ISSN : 27757463     EISSN : 27757455     DOI : https://doi.org/10.46306/bay
Core Subject : Economy, Education,
Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics
Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika adalah Jurnal Ilmiah yang terbit secara daring pada bulan MARET dan SEPTEMBER. untuk menyebarluaskan hasil-hasil penelitian dalam bidang Statistika, Ekonometrika dan sub ilmu statistika lainnya.
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 74 Documents
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PREMIUM RICE PRICE MODELING USING ARIMA MODEL Pardomuan Robinson Sihombing; Ade Marsinta Arsani; Mohamad Arif Kurniawan; Triana Mauliasih Aritonang; Sigit Budiantono; Nurhidayati Nurhidayati
Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika Vol. 3 No. 2 (2023): Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/bay.v3i2.59

Abstract

Rice is a food commodity that has a vital role in meeting the basic food needs of most Indonesian people. Therefore the price of rice significantly impacts the availability, accessibility, and stability of the people's social, economic, and welfare. This study aims to model large prices and conduct nighttime with the ARIMA method. The ARIMA model used based on ACF and PACF criteria is ARIMA (1,1,0). ARIMA modeling (1,1,0) satisfies all assumptions of normality, non-heteroskedastic, non-autocorrelation, and model stability. The model's performance is also good in forecasting with MAPE below 10 percent. Based on forecasting results, premium rice prices continue to increase. Implementing this result requires the government to anticipate rice price increases with comprehensive policies and remain calm so that large prices remain stable
PENERAPAN METODE SIMPLE MULTI-ATTRIBUTE RATING TECHNIQUE EXPLOITING RANK (SMARTER) DALAM PEMILIHAN BIBIT UNGGUL JAGUNG DI DESA SILAU MANGI Irena Blaster; Riri Syafitri Lubis; Nenna Irsa Syahputri
Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika Vol. 3 No. 2 (2023): Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/bay.v3i2.60

Abstract

Agriculture is one of the important sectors in Indonesia. Most of Indonesia's population depends on the agricultural sector, one of which is corn farmers. Cultivation of corn plants starts from choosing quality seeds. Determination of quality corn seeds aims to increase productivity and quality of production. Various efforts can be made to increase corn production such as the use of superior corn seeds. Efforts to increase corn production are still experiencing several obstacles, such as the lack of understanding of farmers in determining superior corn seeds. This study aims to apply the SMARTER method in selecting superior maize seeds in order to increase maize production. The Simple Multi Attribute Rating Technique Exploiting Rank (SMARTER) method is one of the methods in a decision support system whose solution is by using Rank Order Centroid (ROC) weighting on each criteria and sub-criteria. The results of the research carried out obtained five criteria that were used as an assessment in the selection of corn seeds, namely resistance to pests, seed size, production yield, environmental adaptation and harvest time
KOMPARASI PEMODELAN REGRESI OLS GAUSSIAN, BETA DAN REGRESI FRACTIONAL PADA DATA RASIO Pardomuan Robinson Sihombing; Ade Marsinta Arsani; Ni Komang Semara Yanti; Putu Pande Wahyu Diatmika; Nurhidayati Nurhidayati; Sigit Budiantono
Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika Vol. 3 No. 2 (2023): Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/bay.v3i2.61

Abstract

The Public Health Development Index (PHDI) is an indicator that describes health problems and plays a role in efforts to increase long and healthy life expectancy. This study aims to compare PHDI modeling in 35 City Districts of Central Java Province using Gaussian-based regression (OLS), beta regression and fractional regression. The independent variables used are the percentage of poor people and the percentage of households accessing proper sanitation. Data is sourced from the Ministry of Health and Central Java Statistics Agency. All three models gave the same results for both simultaneous and partial tests in modeling PHDI modeling cases. Fractional regression models provide the best results with the smallest error value criteria (AIC and BIC). The percentage of poor people has a significant negative effect on IPKM while the percentage of proper sanitation has a significant positive effect on PHDI. Based on these results, it is expected that policy makers can provide comprehensive and targeted policies in improving PHDI in Indonesia
ANALISIS MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP PERGERAKAN INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN (IHSG) DI INDONESIA Yuninda Anggraini Putri; Masruri Muchtar; Pardomuan Robinson Sihombing
Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika Vol. 3 No. 2 (2023): Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/bay.v3i2.62

Abstract

Investors will always consider the movement of JCI in determining their investment decisions. This research examines the movement of inflation, the rupiah exchange rate, world gold prices, the DJIA stock index, and the FED rate against JCI movements. The test was conducted using the ECM (Error Corection Model) model where the results of this study can be taken into consideration by investors when investing in shares in the IDX capital market. Measurement of the relationship between the influence of macroeconomic factors on JCI movements starts from 2017 to 2021. The results found that in the long run inflation variables, the rupiah exchange rate, world gold price, DJIA stock index, and The FED rate simultaneously have a significant influence on JCI. Then in the short term inflation variables, the rupiah exchange rate, world gold prices, DJIA stock index, and The FED rate also have a simultaneous influence on the dependent variable of JCI. So by looking at the results of the influence of the five variables above on JCI, it can be used as a consideration for investors investing in shares on the IDX
ANALISIS PENGARUH PEMBANGUNAN INFRASTRUKTUR JALAN, SEKOLAH, RUMAH SAKIT, PUSKESMAS, DAN PENYEDIAAN AIR BERSIH TERHADAP PDRB DI SELURUH PROVINSI DI INDONESIA Rama Bhaskara Praja
Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika Vol. 3 No. 2 (2023): Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/bay.v3i2.65

Abstract

Infrastructure plays an important role in the economic growth of a region. The government's new policy in the form of accelerating infrastructure development outside Java will be a way to achieve economic equality in the long term. Infrastructure consists of various types where those that will be used in this study are roads, schools, hospitals, puskesmas, and clean water supply infrastructure. The results of the analysis show that hospitals, puskesmas, and the provision of clean water have a positive effect on GRDP. Meanwhile, roads and schools negatively affect GRDP. This is because most of the roads built are still new so they do not have an effect in the short term. Schools will also only have a long-term impact, namely on the next generation, so the short-term effect on GRDP is still not visible
IMPLEMENTASI METODE ARMA DALAM PERAMALAN INFLASI PROVINSI BANTEN Miftahul Huda; Ratu Nihayah Nur Azizah; Ajeng Nur Setyana
Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika Vol. 3 No. 2 (2023): Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/bay.v3i2.66

Abstract

Inflation is one of indicators of economic stability in a region. Banten Province experiences fluctuating inflation developments from year to year. This fluctuation can be influenced by neighboring provinces such as Lampung and DKI Jakarta Province. Furthermore, inflation calculations in Banten are based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) values from three major cities in Banten: Tangerang City, Cilegon City, and Serang City. This means that inflation value can depict the cost of living movement over a specific period. Forecasting consumer prices, including food, drinks, tobacco, health, education, and others, is necessary to help consumers plan their finances wisely for the future. One method suitable for this forecasting is ARMA(p,q). The ARMA method is used for forecasting based on time series data for stationary data patterns. ARMA model was conducted using the Box-Jenkins method, involving steps of identification model, diagnostic model, and forecasting. The objective of this research is to forecast the inflation value at the end of 2023 using the ARMA method with inflation data from January 2018 to August 2023. This research resulted in an ARMA(1,1) model as the forecasting with MSE=0.0720176. The forecast for September to December 2023 indicates a significant increase in inflation, with inflation values of 0.211182, 0.264935, 0.233054, and 0.251963, respectively
PERHITUNGAN PREMI ASURANSI JIWA SEUMUR HIDUP, ASURANSI JIWA BERJANGKA, SERTA ASURANSI JIWA DWIGUNA TERHADAP TOLAK UKUR UMUR YANG PALING OPTIMAL UNTUK BERGABUNG ASURANSI JIWA Mhd Ghazy Arkan; Indah Cantika Balqis; Muhammad Fakhrurrozy Siregar; Indra Sembaya Timanta Barus
Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika Vol. 4 No. 1 (2024): Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/bay.v4i1.68

Abstract

Determining the optimal age to enter life insurance is a crucial decision that affects benefits and premiums. The study evaluated comparisons between term life insurance, whole life insurance, and dual-purpose life insurance to identify the most favorable lifespan for participants. Through the analysis of single premiums and co-benefits, the study provides insight into insurance options that suit individual needs at different stages of life. The results can guide policyholders in taking the right decisions related to life insurance, considering financial aspects and long-term benefits
IMPLEMENTASI REGRESI PANEL DALAM ANALISIS PENGARUH PARTISIPASI WANITA DI INDONESIA TERHADAP PENGANGGURAN PASCA PANDEMI COVID-19 Dani Rahmad Setiawan
Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika Vol. 4 No. 1 (2024): Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/bay.v4i1.70

Abstract

The role of women is vital for the implementation of equitable and sustainable development. Especially in the post-Covid-19 pandemic period, many socio-cultural structural changes have occurred. This study aims to analyze the influence of women's labor force participation and the Human Development Index (HDI) on open unemployment rates in Indonesia. This study utilizes quantitative and secondary data of 34 provincies in the period 2020-2022 from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency and examines the relationships between variables using panel data regression analysis. It finds that that Human Development Index for women has a significant negative impact on open unemployment rates, while the impact of women's labor force participation on is not. A comprehensive policy regarding increasing the women's human development index is needed which can have the effect of reducing the level of open unemployment in Indonesia. This study contributes to understanding the complex dynamics of labor force participation, human development, and unemployment in Indonesia, providing valuable insights for policymakers and researchers
PENYERAPAN TENAGA KERJA DI JAWA TIMUR: ANALISIS PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI, UPAH MINIMUM, JUMLAH UNIT INDUSTRI, DAN KONSUMSI TEMBAKAU Amin Prawiro Madhani; Masruri Muchtar; Pardomuan Robinson Sihombing
Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika Vol. 4 No. 1 (2024): Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/bay.v4i1.72

Abstract

Tobacco Plant Production in Indonesia is very massive. East Java is Indonesia's largest tobacco producer. In addition, the tobacco processing industry in East Java contributes one-third of East Java's GDP. This study aims to determine the effect of tobacco consumption, GRDP, district/city minimum wage, processing business units on the absorption of processing industry workers in East Java in 2019-2022. The research method uses a quantitative approach with statistical analysis of regression of fixed effect model (FEM) panel data. The results of the regression analysis of panel data show that an increase in GDP, MSEs, and processing industry units will have a positive effect on employment, while an increase in tobacco consumption will reduce employment. This has implications for the need for appropriate MSE policies, economic growth policies that are in accordance with regional characteristics, the development of new processing industries, and appropriate management of labor-intensive tobacco processing industries
FAKTOR DETERMINAN INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA DI PULAU JAWA Devitama Patria Nagara; Masruri Muchtar; Pardomuan Robinson Sihombing
Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika Vol. 4 No. 1 (2024): Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/bay.v4i1.74

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of home ownership rate, proportion of labor, and crime settlement rate on Human Development Index (HDI) in 6 provinces in Java Island in the period 2015 to 2019. This study used regression panel data sourced from the Central Statistics Agency. The results of this study show that households with their own home ownership have an effect on HDI but the proportion of formal labor and crime resolution rates do not have a significant impact. This finding has implications for regional development policies in Java. Households with self-owned home ownership play an important role in improving the Human Development Index (HDI) by creating stability and security of individual residences. However, the proportion of the formal workforce and the rate of solving crimes do not have a significant impact on HDI, demonstrating the complexity of the factors affecting human development. The implications of these findings can be used as a basis for designing more targeted policies to improve people's welfare at the regional level. Factors such as home ownership can be considered as the main focus in efforts to improve the quality of life and human development in Java

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