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Marihot Nasution
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INDONESIA
Jurnal Budget
Published by Setjen DPR RI
ISSN : 25415557     EISSN : 29858879     DOI : 10.22212
Core Subject : Economy, Social,
Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences
Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara contains the results of research, development, studies, and thoughts in the fields of: Economy; State Budget; and Fiscal Policy.
Arjuna Subject : Ilmu Ekonomi, Ekonometrika dan Keuangan (semua kategori) - Keuangan
Articles 147 Documents
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Enhancing The Role of Parliament in Budget Transparency, Public Participation and Budget Oversight: Review of Open Budget Survey Results In 2023 Slamet Widodo
Jurnal Budget : Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara Vol 10 No 1 (2025): Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara
Publisher : Pusat Analisis Anggaran dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara

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Abstract

The results of the Open Budget Survey (OBS) in 2023 coducted by the International Budget Partnership (IBP) showed that, the score for the transparency dimension did not change from the 2021 survey, which amounted to 70. The score for the public participation dimension increased from 24 in 2021, to 26 in 2023. The score for the budget oversight dimension decreased from 61 in 2021 to 59 in 2023 due to lack of evidence of session report of the commitees both in areas of budget oversight and audit report from State Audit Institution (SAI). This article aims to discuss the results of OBS related to the Indonesian parliament and relate them to the mechanism of parliamentary work and the laws and regulations governing the implementation of parliamentary duties. The research method used is descriptive qualitative with the results of the 2023 OBS questionnaire as the main document used in this research. The results show that the parliament needs to improve its mechanisms for periodic monitoring of SAI audit reports, monitoring the implementation of the current fiscal year of 2025 and improving public participation mechanism in budget discussions within and outside the APBN cycle.
Effect of Trade Openness, Foreign Direct Investment, and Labor on GDP Per Capita of ASEAN Countries Azzahra Mubyaring Putri Sayekti; Tiara Ayu Kusumaningtyas; Jordan Putra Cahyono
Jurnal Budget : Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara Vol 10 No 1 (2025): Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara
Publisher : Pusat Analisis Anggaran dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara

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Abstract

Trade openness has been widely studied for its impact on economic growth, yet its specific role in ASEAN countries, with diverse levels of integration and trade policies, remains underexplored. This study examines the effects of trade openness, foreign direct investment (FDI), and labor on GDP per capita in ASEAN countries using panel data from 2008 to 2022. Employing a fixed-effect regression model with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors, the findings reveal that trade openness has a significant yet negative impact on GDP per capita, while FDI and labor exhibit significant positive effects. This study recommends ASEAN countries to diversify exports, reduce dependency on foreign inputs, strengthen local industries, attract high-quality FDI, and improve labor capacity through education and vocational training. Strengthening intraregional trade cooperation is also crucial to reduce development disparities and promoting inclusive growth.
Evaluation Of Fiscal Policy Transmission On External Balance Through The Current Account Balance In Indonesia Jordan Putra Cahyono; Muhammad Haniffirza Usman; Rio Saputra Simanjuntak; Belantika Aplugi
Jurnal Budget : Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara Vol 10 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara
Publisher : Pusat Analisis Anggaran dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara

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Abstract

This study examines the impact of government budget shocks on the current account balance (CAB) in Indonesia, addressing the gap in understanding the short-term effects of fiscal policy on external balance. Using annual time-series data from 1981 to 2024, the research applies an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model to analyze the relationship between government expenditure and CAB. Key findings reveal that government consumption expenditure (GGFCE) has a significant positive effect on CAB, with a coefficient of 0.136, suggesting that a 1% increase in government spending improves the current account balance by 0.136% of GDP. Conversely, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) has a significant negative effect on CAB with a coefficient of -0.181, indicating that higher domestic investment, reliant on imported capital goods, worsens the current account deficit. These findings highlight the importance of balancing fiscal expansion with strategic spending. Theoretical implications suggest that fiscal policy's impact on the current account is mediated by both domestic consumption and trade flows. From a policy perspective, the study recommends that Indonesia’s fiscal strategy focus on export-oriented sectors, such as manufacturing and renewable energy, while controlling non-productive consumption and intensive imports. This approach can strengthen Indonesia’s economic resilience to external shocks and improve its external balance.
Analysis of Income Inequality Between Regencies and Cities in Bengkulu Anggara Putra Pratama; Damia Liana
Jurnal Budget : Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara Vol 10 No 1 (2025): Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara
Publisher : Pusat Analisis Anggaran dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara

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Abstract

This study aims to analyze income disparities between districts and cities in Bengkulu Province and identify the influence of variables such as GRDP, population, and HDI on these income disparities. Income disparities are measured using the Williamson Index, while the factors influencing income disparities are analyzed using panel data regression methods with the assistance of EViews 12 software. Based on the results of the Chow test, Hausman test, and Lagrange Multiplier test, the random effect model was selected as the most appropriate model. The research results indicate that income inequality in Bengkulu Province is relatively low, influenced by differences in natural resources, human resources, and the allocation of development funds across regions. The regression analysis results show that the GRDP variable has a negative and significant effect on income inequality, while population size has a positive and significant effect on income inequality. On the other hand, the HDI also has a negative and significant effect, indicating that improving the quality of life through education and health can reduce income inequality. These findings support development theories that emphasize the importance of economic justice through improving the quality of human resources. Based on the results of this study, policies that support GRDP growth, population control, and HDI improvement are highly recommended to reduce income inequality in Bengkulu Province.
The Effect of Access to Suitable Drinking Water, Health Budget, Health Facilities, Poor Population, Average Years of Schooling, Smoking Prevalence, And Health Human Resources on Life Expectancy in Indonesia 2015-2024 Slamet Widodo
Jurnal Budget : Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara Vol 10 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara
Publisher : Pusat Analisis Anggaran dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara

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Abstract

Life expectancy (LE) represents a core dimension of human development and is a strategic benchmark for realizing Indonesia’s Golden Vision 2045, which aims to raise the national average to over 80 years. Yet, progress toward this goal continues to face obstacles such as inadequate access to clean water, disparities in the distribution of health facilities and personnel, persistent poverty, and high smoking prevalence. This research applies a quantitative design with provincial panel data to examine how several key factors—including safe drinking water access, public health spending, health infrastructure, poverty levels, average years of schooling, smoking prevalence, and health workforce availability—affect LE in Indonesia. The study seeks to identify the most influential determinants of longevity while offering policy-oriented insights. The results indicate that health infrastructure, education levels, and poverty rates are significant predictors of LE, whereas safe water access, health expenditure, smoking, and health workforce availability show limited statistical influence. These findings suggest that long-term investments in healthcare systems, education, and poverty reduction are vital to accelerate improvements in life expectancy and achieve the 2045 development agenda.
Impact Of Income Inequality, Economic Growth, and Government Health Expenditure on The Health Sector in Indonesia Rosalina Tineke Kusumawardhani; Damia Liana
Jurnal Budget : Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara Vol 10 No 1 (2025): Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara
Publisher : Pusat Analisis Anggaran dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara

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Abstract

This study investigates the impact of income inequality, regional economic growth, and government health expenditure on the health across 34 provinces in Indonesia from 2018 to 2022. Using a panel data regression with a fixed effects model, the results show that income inequality has a negative and statistically significant effect on the health sector, while economic growth and government spending have positive and significant effects. Provinces with higher income inequality tend to have lower health sector performance, particularly in terms of health budget allocation and public access to health services. In contrast, regions with sustained economic growth and increased government health expenditure experience improvements in health infrastructure and service delivery. These findings suggest that narrowing income disparities and maintaining consistent economic and fiscal support are essential to improving health sector outcomes at the provincial level in Indonesia. Policy interventions focusing on inclusive economic development and equitable budget distribution can help reduce regional disparities in health services.
Dynamic Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth: A Study of Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Asean 5 Jordan Putra Cahyono; Mohtar Rasyid
Jurnal Budget : Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara Vol 10 No 1 (2025): Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara
Publisher : Pusat Analisis Anggaran dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara

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Abstract

This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth in ASEAN-5 countries, with a focus on identifying country-specific inflation thresholds and analyzing macroeconomic resilience before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aims to evaluate how inflation shocks above certain thresholds influence economic stability under dynamic global conditions. Quarterly data from 2000 to 2023 including inflation rates, real GDP growth, and lending interest rates were analyzed using Threshold Autoregressive (TAR), Panel Threshold Regression (PTR), and Vector Autoregression (VAR) models. Impulse Response Functions (IRF) and Chow tests were employed to assess dynamic interactions and structural shifts across time. Results reveal heterogeneous inflation thresholds: 0.13% (Singapore), 2.11% (Malaysia), 2.39% (Philippines), and 3.25% (Thailand), while Indonesia exhibits a volatile threshold of –1.11%, reflecting structural instability. When inflation exceeds these thresholds, real GDP declines significantly, with Indonesia showing a contraction of up to 1.2% over four quarters. Post-pandemic impacts are notably stronger, indicating reduced economic resilience. The study highlights the need for adaptive, threshold-based monetary policy tailored to each country’s structural profile. Regional policy harmonization should be reconsidered in favor of context-specific responses, including inflation-targeting frameworks, commodity price stabilization, and economic diversification to strengthen resilience amid global uncertainty.
The Impact Of The Program Indonesia Pintar, School Operational Assistance, Special Allocation Fund And Gross Regional Domestic Product On Gross Enrollment Rate In 34 Indonesian Provinces 2020-2023 Martha Carolina; Jesly Panjaitan; Tio Riyono
Jurnal Budget : Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara Vol 10 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara
Publisher : Pusat Analisis Anggaran dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara

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Abstract

Education is a key pillar of human resource development; however, the achievement of the Gross Enrollment Rate (GER) in Indonesia still faces challenges, particularly at the secondary level. This study analyzes the effects of the Program Indonesia Pintar (PIP), Bantuan Operasional Sekolah (BOS), Dana Alokasi Khusus (DAK) in the education sector, and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) per capita on the GER across 34 Indonesian provinces from 2020 to 2023. Panel data regression was employed, with the best model selected through Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier tests, and the Random Effect Model (REM) used for estimation. The results reveal that GRDP per capita consistently exerts a positive and significant influence on the GER at all education levels, highlighting the importance of regional economic capacity in expanding educational access. The PIP shows a significant positive effect at the junior high school level but no significant impact at the elementary or senior high/vocational levels. BOS funds exhibit no significant effect across all levels, while DAK shows a negative and significant effect at the junior high level. The COVID-19 pandemic also had a significant impact, reducing overall enrollment ratios but slightly increasing participation at the elementary level. These findings emphasize the need for more contextual and adaptive education policies that align with regional economic capacities and program implementation effectiveness.
Macroeconomic Determinants and Institutional Factors Affecting Tax Revenue Performance: Evidence from ASEAN-5 Countries Ardimansyah; Seprianda Risky
Jurnal Budget : Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara Vol 10 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara
Publisher : Pusat Analisis Anggaran dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara

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Abstract

Taxation serves as a fundamental instrument for sustaining economic development by financing public expenditure and enhancing national fiscal capacity. This study examines the impact of macroeconomic and institutional factors on tax revenue performance across five ASEAN countries from 2000 to 2024. The analysis employs panel data regression with a fixed effects model, based on Chow and Hausman tests, to determine the most appropriate specification. The results reveal that gross domestic product, productive population, government expenditure, and trade openness have a positive effect on tax revenue, whereas inflation exerts a negative impact. Governance quality also demonstrates a significant role in strengthening fiscal capacity, as effective public administration and policy transparency enhance the credibility and efficiency of the taxation system. These findings underscore that macroeconomic stability, coupled with accountable and transparent governance, provides a solid foundation for enhancing tax revenue performance in the ASEAN-5 region and fostering sustainable economic growth.
Analysis of Financial Stability In Indonesia’s Banking Sector And Its Determinant Factors Mochammad Yusuf; Andika
Jurnal Budget : Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara Vol 10 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara
Publisher : Pusat Analisis Anggaran dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara

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Abstract

This study analyzes the financial stability of Indonesia’s banking sector and the macroprudential factors influencing it over the period 2014–2024. Monthly time-series data obtained from Bank Indonesia and the Financial Services Authority (OJK) were processed using the Engle–Granger Error Correction Model (ECM) to examine both short-run and long-run relationships between inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and money supply in relation to financial stability, which is measured through the Bank Z-score. The empirical findings reveal that inflation exerts a significantly negative impact on financial stability, while the policy interest rate has a significantly positive long-term effect. The money supply demonstrates a positive influence in the long run but a negative one in the short run, whereas the exchange rate shows no statistically significant effect. These results highlight the importance of maintaining credible monetary policy and adaptive macroprudential coordination to safeguard the resilience of Indonesia’s banking sector amid persistent global economic uncertainties.

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