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Jurnal Budget
Published by Setjen DPR RI
ISSN : 25415557     EISSN : 29858879     DOI : 10.22212
Core Subject : Economy, Social,
Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences
Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara contains the results of research, development, studies, and thoughts in the fields of: Economy; State Budget; and Fiscal Policy.
Arjuna Subject : Ilmu Ekonomi, Ekonometrika dan Keuangan (semua kategori) - Keuangan
Articles 147 Documents
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Challenges of The Housing People's Business Credit Program Policy in Encouraging the Empowerment of MSMES Adhi Prasetyo Satriyo Wibowo
Jurnal Budget : Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara Vol 10 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara
Publisher : Pusat Analisis Anggaran dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara

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Abstract

The Housing People's Business Credit Program, regulated under the Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Regulation Number 13 of 2025, aims to integrate UMKM empowerment into the national housing ecosystem to reduce the housing backlog of 12-15 million units and enhance productivity among small developers, contractors, and building material suppliers. Data were collected through a literature review, analyzing policy documents, scientific journals, and regulations related to MSMEs and the Small and Medium Enterprises Business Credit (KUR). Sources were selected based on thematic relevance and publication period (2015–2025) to ensure topicality. The findings highlight key obstacles, including regulations, limited access to financing, low financial literacy and human resource quality, inter-agency coordination, minimal digital technology adoption, and the absence of a unified database, leading to inaccurate mapping. The program offers an innovative scheme with a ceiling of up to IDR 20 billion on the supply side and IDR 500 million on the demand side, accompanied by a 5-6% interest subsidy. The conclusions emphasize the need for measured policy adjustments, cross-sectoral collaboration, and regular monitoring to reduce Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) to 5.2%, increase labor absorption, and strengthen the competitiveness of MSMEs in the housing sector.
The Influence of Inflation and Energy Subsidies on the Stability of the Rupiah Exchange Rate in Indonesia (2015-2024) Septi Nurmalita; Eka Septariana Puspa; Surya Anugrah; Windy Permata Suyono; Deas Shaqilla Putri
Jurnal Budget : Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara Vol 10 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara
Publisher : Pusat Analisis Anggaran dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara

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Abstract

This study examines the determinants of exchange rate stability in Indonesia during the period 2015-2024, focusing on the roles of inflation and energy subsidies. Using a quantitative explanatory approach and multiple linear regression analysis with annual time-series data, this research explores how these two macroeconomic variables influence the volatility of the Indonesian rupiah against the U.S. dollar. The results show that inflation does not significantly affect exchange rate stability, indicating that effective monetary policy by Bank Indonesia has successfully mitigated inflationary pressures on the currency. Meanwhile, energy subsidies are found to have a significant effect on exchange rate stability, implying that fiscal policy related to energy spending plays a crucial role in shaping the rupiah’s movement. Collectively, inflation and energy subsidies explain 49.1% of the variation in exchange rate stability. These findings highlight the importance of harmonizing fiscal and monetary policies to maintain macroeconomic resilience and strengthen the credibility of Indonesia’s exchange rate management.
Determinants Of Accrual Manipulation In Local Government Financial Reporting: Empirical Evidence From The Covid-19 Pandemic Meisi Ikrima; Syukriy Abdullah
Jurnal Budget : Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara Vol 10 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara
Publisher : Pusat Analisis Anggaran dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara

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Abstract

This study examines the determinants of accrual manipulation in local government financial reporting in Indonesia during 2020, a year marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, repeated budget revisions, and severe fiscal pressures. A quantitative approach was employed using secondary data from the audited Local Government Financial Statements issued by the Audit Board of Indonesia (BPK RI). The final sample consisted of 85 local governments after removing outliers to satisfy the normality test. The regression model is statistically significant (F = 3.731; p = 0.008) with R² of 0.157, indicating that four independent variables explain 15.7% of the variance in accrual manipulation. Partially, Government Size has a positive and significant effect (β = 0.057; p < 0.02), while Fiscal Capacity has a negative and significant effect (β = −0.070; p < 0.02). Fiscal Stress and Budget Surplus (SiLPA) each of them show positive and negative but insignificant effects. The findings reveal that larger local governments face higher bureaucratic complexity and political pressure, broadening discretionary room for accrual manipulation. Conversely, strong fiscal capacity reduces opportunistic reporting incentives. These results reinforce agency theory in the context of public finance and suggest implementing risk-based audits and strengthening local accounting capacity to enhance financial transparency and accountability.
The Effect of Regional Transfers on Poverty Reduction in Aceh Province From 2011 to 2024: A Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) Approach Anggara Pratama Putra
Jurnal Budget : Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara Vol 10 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara
Publisher : Pusat Analisis Anggaran dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara

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Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of government spending—including social assistance, financial assistance, grants, and subsidies—on poverty reduction in Aceh Province using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach. Although the government budget continues to increase, poverty reduction in Aceh remains suboptimal, mainly due to structural and socio-economic challenges exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. One aspect that has been rarely studied is the impact of financial assistance spending, especially in Aceh, which has unique socio-economic characteristics. This study integrates key socio-economic indicators, such as the Human Development Index (HDI) and the Open Unemployment Rate, to analyze their combined impact on poverty levels. The findings show that social assistance and financial assistance have a significant impact but tend to increase poverty. This is due to the dependency that arises from uneven distribution and the lack of sustainable economic empowerment. On the other hand, grants were found to contribute positively to poverty reduction, while subsidies did not show a significant impact. In addition, higher HDI scores were associated with lower poverty rates, while higher unemployment rates were associated with higher poverty rates. These findings highlight the importance of targeted fiscal policies and efficient resource allocation to address the root causes of poverty. This study provides valuable insights for improving policy formulation and implementation of poverty alleviation programs in Aceh, emphasizing the need for a holistic approach that combines human capital development and the creation of sustainable economic opportunities.
The Role of Human Capital and Urbanization in Driving Economic Growth in Indonesia Damia Liana; Rosalina Tineke Kusumawardhani
Jurnal Budget : Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara Vol 10 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara
Publisher : Pusat Analisis Anggaran dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara

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Abstract

This study examines the impact of urbanization, education, interaction between urbanization and education, government expenditure, labor, and trade on Indonesia’s economic growth. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the analysis distinguishes the short-run and long-run effects of each variable on GDP. The results show that urbanization positively affects long-run growth through agglomeration economies, while education significantly enhances productivity in line with endogenous growth theory. However, urbanization without adequate skill improvement reduces productivity due to labor skill mismatches in urban areas. Government expenditure has a negative short-run effect but a positive long-run impact, indicating fiscal adjustment lags before investment spending stimulates growth. Meanwhile, trade shows a negative long-run relationship, reflecting dependence on imported consumer goods and low-value commodity exports. The findings highlight the importance of strengthening human capital, improving fiscal efficiency, and promoting trade policies that enhance domestic value-added to achieve inclusive and sustainable economic growth.
The Effect of Reservation Wages on The Duration of Job Search among Young Workforce in Indonesia Mutiara Shinta Andini
Jurnal Budget : Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara Vol 10 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara
Publisher : Pusat Analisis Anggaran dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara

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Abstract

This study analyzes the effect of reservation wages on the duration of job search for young people in Indonesia using SAKERNAS data. Reservation wages are defined as the minimum wage level that individuals are willing to accept to enter the job market, while the duration of the job search is measured from the length of time it takes to find a job until obtaining the first job. The method used is Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) with robust standard errors to overcome heteroscedasticity. The results showed that the higher the reservation wage, the longer the duration of the job search, indicating that excessively high wage preferences can prolong unemployment. Control variables such as type of education, work experience, gender, and location of residence also had a significant effect on the duration of the job search. These findings provide a new understanding of the dynamics of the transition of the young workforce in Indonesia and the importance of policies that encourage labor market information and skill improvement to reduce wage expectation mismatch.
Strengthening Dietary Diversity to Enhance the Access Dimension of Food Security: A Case Study of 24 Regencies/Cities in Sumatra Island Robby Alexander Sirait
Jurnal Budget : Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara Vol 10 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara
Publisher : Pusat Analisis Anggaran dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara

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Abstract

The prevalence of undernourishment (PoU) across all regencies/cities on Sumatra Island remains quite high. Besides inflation, this condition can be caused by low dietary diversity. This study examines the effect of dietary diversity to access dimension of food security on 24 regencies/cities in Sumatra Island, as measured by the PoU. The research employs secondary data 24 regencies/cities over the 2021–2024 period published by BPS-Statistics Indonesia. Using a fixed-effects, we found that dietary diversity (particularly the diversification of carbohydrate energy sources) have a negative effect and statistically significant to PoU. Thus, dietary diversity will increase access dimension of food security. Another finding is that inflation have positive effect to PoU and the majority of carbohydrate energy source diversification consumption on Sumatra Island is still low. These findings suggest that regency/city governments can uses dietary diversity startegy and control inflation to reduce the PoU and improve access dimension of food security.

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