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Sciencestatistics: Journal of Statistics, Probability, and Its Application
Published by Universitas Muhammadiyah Metro
ISSN : 29642884     EISSN : 29639875     DOI : https://doi.org/10.24127
Core Subject : Science, Education,
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Mathematics
Sciencestatistics: Journal of Statistics, Probability, and Its Application is an Open Access journal in the field of statistical inference, experimental design and analysis, survey methods and analysis, research operations, data mining, statistical modeling, statistical updating, time series and econometrics, multivariate analysis, statistics education, simulation and modeling, numerical analysis, algebra, combinatorics, and applied mathematics.
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 31 Documents
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Application of the Double Exponential Smoothing Brown Method in Forecasting the Number of Poor Population Intan Utami; Ana Istiqomah; Sangidatus Sholiha
Sciencestatistics: Journal of Statistics, Probability, and Its Application Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): JANUARY
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Metro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24127/sciencestatistics.v4i1.11069

Abstract

Poverty is a socio-economic issue that requires policy planning based on accurate forecasting. This study uses the Brown Double Exponential Smoothing method to forecast the number of poor people in Metro City for the period 2026-2030, using data from 2005-2025 obtained from BPS. The analysis was conducted using a trial and error method for the alpha (α) parameter ranging from 0.1 to 0.9 based on the smallest MAD, MSE, and MAPE values. The study results indicate that the optimal alpha parameter is α = 0.5 with a MAPE of 15.91231%, which indicates good accuracy. The forecast shows an increasing trend from 321.90 thousand people (2026) to 338.87 thousand people (2030), with an average increase of 4.24 thousand people per year. The results of this study can be used as a basis for planning poverty alleviation programs in Metro City.

Page 4 of 4 | Total Record : 31

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