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Economic Journal of Emerging Markets
Published by Universitas Islam Indonesia
ISSN : 20863128     EISSN : 2502180x     DOI : -
Core Subject : Economy,
Economics, Econometrics & Finance
The Economic Journal of Emerging Markets (EJEM) is a peer-reviewed journal which provides a forum for scientific works pertaining to emerging market economies. Published every April and October, this journal welcomes original research papers on all aspects of economic development issues. The journal is fully open access for scholarly readers.
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Articles 611 Documents
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Digital payment systems’ impact on the economy and banking stability: The Indonesian case Pratama, Muhammad Adisurya; Imansyah, Muhammad Handry
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 18 Issue 2, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol18.iss2.art11

Abstract

Purpose — This study examines the impact of digital payment systems on the economy, including economic output and inflation, as well as banking stability, in Indonesia.Methods — This study uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Johansen cointegration approaches to examine the dynamics of how digital payment systems affect the Indonesian economy and banking stability, using monthly time series data from 2008 to 2022.Findings — This study finds a cointegrating relationship between digital payment systems, the Indonesian economy, and banking stability. In addition, the use of debit and credit cards enhances economic output growth, accompanied by inflation driven by a higher velocity of money. Credit cards and the RTGS system also contribute to banking stability by smoothing credit distribution and mitigating risks within the banking system.Implication — This study suggests that the Central Bank should consider digital payment transactions as an indicator for formulating optimal monetary policy and include them in the banking stability risk-assessment monitoring framework.Originality — This study provides a comprehensive, instrument-level analysis of all digital payment systems in Indonesia and their long- and short-run effects on the economy and banking stability.
Empirical evidence of the volatility spillover between the food grain market and the Brazilian equity market Salles, Andre Assis de; da Conceição, Pedro Ivo Paulo; Pontes de Medeiros, Vitor Otavio
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 18 Issue 2, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol18.iss2.art9

Abstract

Purpose — This study analyses the relationship and volatility spillover between the food grain market and the Brazilian equity market. Methods — The analysis employed ARCH-class volatility models to test causality and contagion between food grain commodity price volatility and Brazilian stock market index volatility. Vector autoregressive models were also developed with Brazilian stock index volatility as the endogenous variable and the volatility of corn, wheat, and soybeans as exogenous variables.Implications — The grain market is important to the global economy and food security. Soybeans are the fourth most consumed and produced grain worldwide, after corn, wheat, and rice. Beyond food security and animal feed, soybeans and corn also support energy production. Given Brazil's significant food commodity production, this sector positively affects the Brazilian economy. As the stock market index is a leading economic indicator, a relevant link exists between the Brazilian equity market and the grain market studied here. Findings — The results reveal causality and cointegration between price returns in these markets. Cointegration is also confirmed between the volatilities of the selected variables, indicating a long-run relationship between Brazilian equity volatility and international food grain prices, along with contagion between returns and volatilities. The findings identify volatility contagion between the Brazilian equity market and three primary grain commodities: soybeans, corn, and wheat.Originality — This paper differs from previous studies by focusing specifically on the Brazilian equity market and three primary grain commodities (soybeans, corn, and wheat), using ARCH-class volatility models and vector autoregressive models to examine causality, cointegration, and contagion.
Impact of sanitary and phytosanitary measures on Indonesia’s tea export: A gravity model approach Santoso, Danang Budi; Rokhim, Rofikoh; Revindo, Mohamad Dian
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 18 Issue 2, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol18.iss2.art8

Abstract

Purpose ― This study examines the impact of Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) measures, particularly the Maximum Residue Level (MRL) regulation for Anthraquinone, on Indonesia’s green and black tea exports.Methods ― An augmented gravity model of international trade is employed using panel data on Indonesia’s bilateral tea exports from 2001 to 2020. The model incorporates standard gravity variables, including economic size and geographical distance, along with regulatory indicators representing non-tariff measures (NTMs) and Anthraquinone MRL standards affecting tea exports.Findings ― The empirical results show that NTMs overall have a positive effect on Indonesia’s black tea exports, indicating that regulatory measures may also function as quality signals in international trade. However, stricter Anthraquinone MRL standards negatively affect black tea exports while having a positive effect on green tea exports. These results suggest that the impact of SPS regulations differs across tea product categories.Implication ― The findings underline the importance of regulatory compliance, quality control, and adaptive production strategies to maintain export competitiveness under increasingly stringent food safety standards. Originality ― This study distinguishes between general NTMs and specific MRL regulations and differentiates between green tea and black tea exports, providing new empirical evidence on the heterogeneous trade effects of SPS regulations in Indonesia’s tea sector.
Multilevel analysis of macroeconomic and institutional determinants of FDI in Newly Industrialized Countries Suripto, Suripto; Salim, Agus; Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi; Khasanah, Uswatun; Athfal, Azkal Azkiya; Wong, Wing-Keung; Vieira, Isabel
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 18 Issue 2, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol18.iss2.art3

Abstract

Purpose — This study empirically examines how macroeconomic and institutional factors influence Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows in Newly Industrialised Countries (NICs), with particular emphasis on structural backwardness among NICs.Method — The analysis uses a Hierarchical Linear Modelling (HLM) approach based on multilevel panel data for 2013–2024. We tested the model in stages using the Null Model, Random Intercept Model, and Random Slope Model.Findings — The Null Model yields that cross-country differences, rather than temporal fluctuations, drive most of the variation in FDI across NICs. Graphical analysis confirms this cross-country heterogeneity, showing that institutional capacity and macroeconomic strength explain most of the variation in FDI across countries. The Random Slope Model further shows that GDP has a positive and significant effect on FDI, while Political Stability has a significant negative effect. Trade Openness, Government Effectiveness, and Voice and Accountability are not statistically significant, indicating that macroeconomic factors remain the dominant drivers of FDI.Implication — These findings emphasise the importance of strengthening economic foundations and institutional flexibility in the design of foreign investment policies in NICS countries.Originality — The main contribution of this research lies in its use of random-slope models of Voice and Accountability (VA) models within the HLM framework, enabling a deeper examination of institutional dynamics across NICs.
Heterogeneity of the micro-mechanisms and pathways of the impacts of FDI on GDP in Asian developing economies Liuting, Qin; Yahoo, Masoud; Amiri , Hossein
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 18 Issue 2, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol18.iss2.art1

Abstract

Purpose — This research provides a thorough examination of the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in China and Malaysia, considering the diverse mechanisms and pathways involved.Method — Using panel data from 1991 to 2021 and a fixed-effects model to address unobserved individual heterogeneity, this study employs multiple regression to analyse the impact of FDI on GDP, controlling for capital formation, trade share, and labour force participation rates. Sensitivity tests examine whether the impact of FDI varies across specifications.Findings — The results show a significant positive impact of FDI on GDP, with a stronger marginal effect observed for China. Trade share and excessive money supply exert significant negative effects, while labour participation and capital formation exhibit heterogeneous impacts. Inflation has a two-sided effect, with its direction varying across specifications. Implications — Prioritise policies that attract FDI and improve its quality and efficiency. Both countries should optimise trade structures and raise export value added, address ageing and urban–rural labour imbalances through skills training and technological innovation and pursue practical monetary policies to keep inflation moderate. Originality — This study fills a gap in cross-country comparative research by revealing how the mechanisms of action differ across economies. It also develops a quantitative model that incorporates capital formation, trade share, labour participation rates, savings rates, and inflation.
How circular economy adoption fosters export diversification in emerging markets Manavgat Demirci, Gökçe; Bova, Demetrio M.
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 18 Issue 2, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol18.iss2.art10

Abstract

Purpose — This study examines whether the share of circular economy (CE) products in total exports is associated with export concentration in emerging market economies (EMEs). It also investigates whether this relationship varies with countries’ structural characteristics, particularly manufacturing intensity.Method — The analysis uses panel data for 14 EMEs over the 2022–2024 period. A fractional logit model estimates the relationship between CE export share and export concentration, with interaction terms included to assess whether the association varies across different levels of manufacturing intensity.Findings — The results show that higher CE export shares are associated with lower export concentration, suggesting that CE-related exports may contribute to greater export diversification. However, this association is not uniform across countries. It is stronger in less industrialized economies and weaker in more manufacturing-intensive economies where export structures are already more specialized. The findings therefore indicate diminishing diversification gains as CE intensity rises. Because internationally comparable CE trade data are only available from 2022 onward, the results should be interpreted as short-run associations rather than long-run causal effects.Implication — The study suggests that CE-related exports may represent a relevant diversification channel for EMEs, especially in earlier stages of industrial development.Originality — It provides one of the cross-country empirical assessments linking CE export activity to export concentration using newly available CE trade data.
A dynamic linkage between economic complexity, institutional quality, and income inequality in Africa Kudaisi, Bosede; Osinubi, Tolulope; Simatele, Munacinga
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 18 Issue 2, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol18.iss2.art2

Abstract

Purpose — This study examines the role of institutional quality in the relationship between economic complexity and income inequality in 34 African countries from 2005 to 2023. Methods — To achieve its objectives, the study employs the Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS), Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR), and the Dumitrescu–Hurlin Granger non-causality (DHGC) test.Findings — The first three methods reveal that economic complexity reduces income inequality, while weak institutions amplify it. The interaction results show that institutional inefficiencies weaken complexity's inclusiveness. The DHGC result implies a two-way relationship between economic complexity and income inequality. Implications — The research suggests that strong institutions are crucial for boosting Africa's productivity and reducing income disparities.Originality — This study contributes to the literature by exploring the long-term relationship among economic complexity, institutional quality, and income inequality in Africa.
Interaction of electricity futures prices with economic and financial indicators: A case study of Türkiye Elçiçek, Yasemin Karataş
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 18 Issue 2, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol18.iss2.art5

Abstract

Purpose — This study examines the relationship between macroeconomic variables and monthly base-load electricity futures prices. In particular, it investigates how exchange rates, electricity consumption, inflation, Brent oil prices, and interest rates influence electricity futures contracts in financial markets.Methods — Using monthly data from January 2016 to July 2025, the study applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to analyze short-run and long-run dynamics. This method is well suited to examining relationships among variables with different integration orders and allows simultaneous estimation of equilibrium and adjustment processes.Findings — The empirical results show that Brent oil prices, electricity consumption, and exchange rates positively affect electricity futures prices in the long run, whereas interest rates have a negative effect. Short-run estimates largely confirm these long-run relationships, indicating consistency across time horizons.Implication — These findings have implications for investors, energy market participants, and policymakers by highlighting the sensitivity of electricity futures prices to key macroeconomic indicators, thereby informing pricing, hedging, and energy policy decisions.Originality — This study contributes to the literature by providing comprehensive empirical evidence on the dynamic interactions between macroeconomic indicators and electricity futures prices in an emerging market context, with a focus on Türkiye.
The impact of uncertainty and institutional quality on commercial banks' risk in Asia Ha, Nguyen Tuyet Minh; Dang, Buu Kiem
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 18 Issue 2, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol18.iss2.art4

Abstract

Purpose — This study examines the impact of uncertainty, including global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR), on the risk of Asian banks and investigates the moderating role of institutional quality.Methods — Using a bank-level sample of 463 banks from 24 Asian countries over 2010–2024, the study estimates empirical models using system GMM, complemented by multiple robustness checks to ensure result reliability. Findings — Our findings provide strong and consistent evidence that uncertainty, including global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR), increases bank risk-taking. In addition, improving institutional quality through political stability weakens the positive effect of uncertainty on bank risk. Implications — Policymakers should implement protective mechanisms such as flexible monetary policy and strengthened capital standards, while enhancing institutional quality to safeguard banking system resilience. At the bank level, managers should establish contingency strategies, maintain adequate capital buffers, and adopt a "wait-and-see" approach to minimise decision errors under heightened uncertainty.Originality — This study contributes to the bank-level literature on uncertainty and bank risk-taking in Asia by using a broader and more recent sample that captures major uncertainty episodes not fully covered in earlier studies. It further extends prior research by employing multiple measures of uncertainty, including global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR), and by examining how institutional quality conditions the effect of uncertainty on bank risk-taking.
Electricity vs clean fuel: Energy access and economic development in ASEAN countries Riswana, Nanda; Azijah, Zulva
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 18 Issue 2, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol18.iss2.art7

Abstract

Purpose — This study examines the association between electricity access, clean cooking accessibility, and economic development in ASEAN countries during 2000–2023. It also examines whether the association between electricity access and economic development varies with clean cooking accessibility and considers major structural shocks, including the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.Methods — Using balanced panel data for 11 ASEAN countries from the World Development Indicators, this study applies fixed-effects estimation, interaction-effect modelling, robust estimation, and two-step System Generalised Method of Moments (System GMM) to account for unobserved heterogeneity, potential endogeneity, and dynamic persistence.Findings — Electricity access and clean cooking access are positively and statistically significantly associated with GDP per capita in the baseline fixed-effects and robustness estimates. The interaction between electricity and clean cooking access is negative and statistically significant, indicating that the association between electricity access and GDP per capita varies with the level of clean cooking access. In the System GMM estimation, electricity and clean cooking access are not statistically significant, while lagged GDP per capita is positive and significant, indicating substantial persistence in economic development.Implication — The findings highlight the importance of treating electricity and clean cooking access as distinct dimensions of energy development and of improving equitable access to modern household energy across ASEAN.Originality — The study distinguishes electricity access from clean cooking accessibility and combines interaction analysis with static and dynamic panel estimation in the ASEAN context.

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