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Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan (Journal of Biometrics and Population)
Published by Universitas Airlangga
ISSN : 2302707X     EISSN : 25408828     DOI : -
Core Subject :
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan is a journal that contains articles about the development of statistical methods in the field of health, the application of statistical methods on solving health problems, the development of demography and demography, solving reproductive health problems, solving the problems of maternal and child health as well as the themes surrounding the development of biostatistics and population. This journal is published twice a year in July and December.
Arjuna Subject : -
Articles 213 Documents
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DOMINANT FACTORS AFFECTING SHORT BIRTH INTERVAL BASED ON DATA OF IDHS 2017 Nedra Wati Zaly; Mugia Bayu Raharja
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan (Journal of Biometrics and Population) Vol. 11 No. 1 (2022): JURNAL BIOMETRIKA DAN KEPENDUDUKAN
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jbk.v11i1.2022.45-53

Abstract

Short birth distances can be risky for the mother as well as for the baby. Mothers who experience pregnancy with too close a distance can be at risk of early rupture of amniotic fluid, bleeding, and anemia, while infants were at risk of low birth weight and death. To avoid such risks, couples of childbearing age should plan and determine the distance of pregnancy. The purpose of the study was to identify the most dominant factors that influence the incidence of short birth distances. Knowledge of birth distance is very beneficial for women's reproductive health. Furthermore, women are expected to delay pregnancy or provide birth distance after the previous birth. This study used secondary data from the Indonesian Health Demographics Survey (IDHS) 2017. The sample of this study is of women who gave birth to the last child born alive in the last five years when IDHS data were taken. The results of this study showed that the factor that most influences the occurrence of short birth distance is the survival status of the child after being controlled by other variables.
FORECASTING OF COVID-19 DAILY CASES IN INDONESIA USING ARIMA MODEL Zia Azuro Zuhairoh; Yuliana Sarasati
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan (Journal of Biometrics and Population) Vol. 11 No. 1 (2022): JURNAL BIOMETRIKA DAN KEPENDUDUKAN
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jbk.v11i1.2022.28-35

Abstract

COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) continues to be a global issue. The disease began to spread due to direct contact with the seafood market in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. COVID-19 cases globally and especially in Indonesia, are still increasing as well. Therefore, it is important to forecast future cases as a form of vigilance and materials to formulate strategies in controlling the spread and procurement of health systems. This study aims to predict daily cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia. This research includes non-reactive studies by collecting daily case data on COVID-19 from October 1st to December 31st, 2020 from the COVID-19 Task Force website in Indonesia. The results showed that the model that is fit to describe COVID-19 cases in Indonesia is ARIMA [5,1,0] with a model significance of 0.000 and constant of 0.049 (p value <0.05), Ljung-Box Q of 0.880 (p value >0.05) and residual normality of 0.330 (p value >0.05). The three months forecasting (from January to March 2021) showed a number that tended to increase. The increase in cases occurred due to environment, behavior, health services, and genetics. Therefore, it is necessary to increase cooperation between the government and the community so that efforts to suppress the growth of COVID-19 cases are optimal.
FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF VERTICAL REFERRALS FOR BPJS PARTICIPANTS AT HEALTH SERVICE CENTER IN UNIVERSITAS AIRLANGGA USING ARIMA MODEL Princessa Aulia Faradiela; Arief Wibowo; Yeni Rahmah Husniyawati
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan (Journal of Biometrics and Population) Vol. 11 No. 1 (2022): JURNAL BIOMETRIKA DAN KEPENDUDUKAN
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jbk.v11i1.2022.62-71

Abstract

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is a time series forecasting method to estimate future events using past data. It can perform short-term forecasting on data with all types of data patterns, both seasonal and non-seasonal data. This study aims to report the best ARIMA for vertical referral cases in BPJS PLK Universitas Airlangga participants. This method used to analyze the number of vertical references for BPJS participants. The research method used is non-intrusive using secondary data and the sample used was the entire population of vertical point reference data for BPJS PLK UNAIR in 2020. The purposive sampling used until 266 data are found. The results of the analysis show that the ARIMA model used to estimate the number of vertical referrals participants is AR [6] or also known as ARIMA [6,0,0]. As for PLK Campus B UNAIR is ARIMA [0,1,1]. In this model, all diagnostic tests have met the assumption requirements. The results of forecasting the number of vertical referrals in PLK Campus C shows the number of vertical referrals will tend to have a constant or horizontal trend with a smaller reference value than the data in 2020. Meanwhile, the number of vertical referrals of PLK Campus B UNAIR has decreased in number compare to 2020. This forecasting has a MAPE value below 10% so the forecasting model has a very good performance in forecasting examples of vertical referrals for BPJS participants in the future. Then the results are useful for making policies to deal with future cases.
DETERMINANT FACTORS FOR UNINTENDED PREGNANCY IN BALI PROVINCE Putu Ayu Indrayathi; Putu Erma Pradnyani; Ngakan Putu Anom Harjana; Luh Putu Sinthya Ulandari; Anastasia Septya Titisari; Luh Kadek Ratih Swandewi
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan (Journal of Biometrics and Population) Vol. 11 No. 1 (2022): JURNAL BIOMETRIKA DAN KEPENDUDUKAN
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jbk.v11i1.2022.36-44

Abstract

Bali Province has the lowest unmet need achievement, namely 8.1%, meaning that it has a low-value gap between the availability of contraceptive services and the needs of the community. This study analyzed the factors that influence the incidence of unintended pregnancy among childbearing-age women in Bali. This research is a secondary data analysis from the Program Performance and Accountability Survey (PPAS) of the National Population and Family Planning Board in 2019. The variables studied were selected from the PPAS’s Women data, with 1,214 samples of married fertile women aged 15-59 years in Bali. Multivariate analysis in the form of a logistic regression test is carried out to estimate factors that affect unintended pregnancy incidence in childbearing-age women in Bali. Factors influencing unintended pregnancy are age and having heard of family planning, understanding birth control, understanding population issues, and having listened to adolescent reproductive health. The multivariate analysis shown that age and having heard of family planning are two factors that significantly influence unintended pregnancy. Two factors that influence unintended pregnancy in Bali are age and having heard about family planning. Therefore, cross-sector engagement is required to provide a family planning program to the targeted fertile women's age found in this research to improve women's exposure to the program.
POSTPARTUM FAMILY PLANNING IN DKI JAKARTA: RUN CHART ANALYSIS Siti Fatimah; Dadan Erwandi; Sabarinah Prasetyo
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan (Journal of Biometrics and Population) Vol. 11 No. 1 (2022): JURNAL BIOMETRIKA DAN KEPENDUDUKAN
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jbk.v11i1.2022.89-97

Abstract

Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) is one of the national health indicators to achieve the success of maternal health efforts where the number of MMR in Indonesia reached 305 per 100,000 live births. Family planning services including Post Partum Family Planning/Keluarga Berencana Pascapersalinan (KBPP) can effectively reduce maternal mortality by reducing births and reducing high risk. The high number of KBPP users in DKI Jakarta can be caused by many things such as local government support, level of service by health workers, and others. Therefore, this study aims to analyze and find out the special causes that cause the number of KBPP participants in DKI Jakarta and as a lesson learned for other local governments. This research is a descriptive study to see the variety of data on the number of KBPP participants in DKI Jakarta. Univariate analysis was used to describe the number of KBPP participants and bivariate analysis to explain the characteristics of the variables studied based on time, namely in the form of a run chart. Based on four tests that have been carried out on the data on the number of KBPP participants in DKI Jakarta, it can be said that there is one test that meets the requirements as a variation of system data so that there is a special cause that causes the number of KBPP participants in 2019-2020. The existence of policy support from the DKI Jakarta Provincial Government, and various stakeholders has resulted in high coverage of the use of postpartum family planning.
'DO I HAVE TO CHOOSE?' TWO CHILDREN VS FOUR CHILDREN IN BALI’S FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAM Anastasia Septya Titisari; Carol Warren; Anja Reid; Luh Kadek Ratih Swandewi
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan (Journal of Biometrics and Population) Vol. 11 No. 1 (2022): JURNAL BIOMETRIKA DAN KEPENDUDUKAN
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jbk.v11i1.2022.98-109

Abstract

The Indonesian family planning program has been running for over five decades. Until the present, the implementation of this program still generates debate over important policy issues. On June 14th, 2019, the Balinese provincial government released a new pro-natalist family planning policy No.1545 (Keluarga Berencana Krama Bali) to respond to the concerns from the national family planning program two-child policy success. What are the implications for Balinese women's position in response to the political and cultural policies that impact their reproductive rights? This study analyzes the tensions between the national family planning program's two-child policy and the recent local Balinese Keluarga Berencana Krama model by focusing on Balinese women's perspectives. Ethnographic research was conducted from January to February 2020 in Bali. This study indicates that the women's fertility decisions were constrained by patrilineal structures, economic stresses, and government population policies. Krama Bali, which encourages a four children model according to the Balinese naming system, complicates the triple burden impacts on Balinese women's agency. The new pro-natalist provincial policy explicitly prioritizes cultural values and indirectly exacerbates the pressure to produce inheriting sons. Balinese women had to choose between cultural preservation and economic considerations, which intensified the tensions between their productive, reproductive, and customary (adat) obligations. Internal and external pressures imposed upon the Balinese women participants have forced them to navigate conflicting economic, political, and cultural demands with varying degrees of agency.
DIFFERENCE OF DIVORCE DETERMINATION IN INDONESIA: A STUDY SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW Luluk Latifah; Iskandar Ritonga
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan (Journal of Biometrics and Population) Vol. 11 No. 02 (2022): JURNAL BIOMETRIKA DAN KEPENDUDUKAN
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jbk.v11i02.2022.223-235

Abstract

The divorce rate is getting more and more concerning. The number of divorce rate shows a significant increase both nationally and regionally in Indonesia. During 2019, there were 480,618 divorce cases. This divorce rate increased by 18% compared to the previous year which amounted to 408,202 cases. This paper aims to determine the determinants of divorce in Indonesia, using a Systematic Literature Review of 20 journals published by indexed publishers. The results based on the mapping state that the differentiation of the determinants of divorce in Indonesia very much depends on each region. However, all of them can be mapped into 16 factors that cause divorce, namely: economic factors, responsibility, continuous quarrels, harmony, infidelity, domestic violence, jealousy, leaving a partner, forced marriage, apostasy/leaving Islam, drunkenness and gambling, obstructed communication, interference/third party intervention, incompatibility, unhealthy polygamy, and moral crisis. The conclusion of this study is that the strongest determinant of divorce in Indonesia in each region is the economic factor. Economic factors are the strongest factor causing divorce, because the cause of divorce in almost all areas with the highest frequency and the highest percentage is also compared to other causes of divorce.
DETERMINANTS OF UNINTENDED PREGNANCY AMONG MARRIED WOMEN AGED 15-49 YEARS IN EAST JAVA Indah Lutfiya; Mursyidul Ibad; Afif Kurniawan; Nuke Amalia; Diyah Herowati
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan (Journal of Biometrics and Population) Vol. 11 No. 02 (2022): JURNAL BIOMETRIKA DAN KEPENDUDUKAN
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jbk.v11i02.2022.110-121

Abstract

The percentage of Unintended Pregnancy or Kehamilan Tidak Diinginkan (KTD) in Indonesia is still 17.5%. East Java contributed for 14.6% of cases of KTD during 2019. The increase in fertility rates and maternal mortality cases in Indonesia is partly due to KTD. This study will analyze the determinants of the incident of KTD in women of childbearing age or Wanita Usia Subur (WUS) in East Java. This study is a non-reactional study with a Cross-sectional design using data on the Program Performance and Accountability Survey (PPAS) for Family Planning and Family Development Program (KKBPK) 2019. Sample in this study were 2,650 married WUS with ages 15-49 years. Secondary data were analyzed using multiple logistic regression tests. Some factors that determine the incidence of unintended pregnancy include mother's age (p=0.000), age of first marriage or Usia Kawin Pertama (UKP) (p=0.004), number of living children (p=0.000), welfare level (p=0.004), residence (p=0.043), knowledge of contraception (p=0.022), history of contraceptive use (p=0.001), access of information (p=0.000), and family planning decisions (p=0.003). Meanwhile mother's education (p=0.998), mother's occupation (p=0.362), and insurance ownership (p=0,750) did not affect the case of KTD in East Java. New policies and innovations that are more targeted are needed so that prospective acceptors receive contraceptive services easily and affordably so as to reduce the number of KTD. Optimizing the role of the Family   Planning   Field Officer or Petugas Lapangan   Keluarga   Berencana (PLKB) to increase the rate of the use of modern contraceptives in East Java.
ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CHARACTERISTICS OF TEENAGERS AND FAMILY FUNCTIONS ON TEENAGERS’ BEHAVIOR FOR CONSUMING DRUGS IN EAST JAVA Ismaini Zain; Erma Oktania Permatasari; Mardiyono Mardiyono; Amri Muhaimin; Dwilaksana Abdullah Rasyid
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan (Journal of Biometrics and Population) Vol. 11 No. 02 (2022): JURNAL BIOMETRIKA DAN KEPENDUDUKAN
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jbk.v11i02.2022.122-133

Abstract

This research aims to analyze the relationship between the characteristics of teenagers and family functions as well as the understanding of narcotics, psychotropics, and addictive substances on the behavior of teenagers consuming drugs in East Java as a response variable with a binary scale. The data source obtained through secondary data from the Performance Survey and Accountability Program 2019 with the observation unit teenagers aged 10-24 years. The sample used is 4,649. The analytical method used is descriptive statistics, the Chi-square method, and Odds Ratio (OR). The percentage of adolescent consuming drugs is 4.1% descriptively. The relationship analysis shows that the variables significantly related to young people's behavior in consuming drugs are gender, place of residence, level of education, age group, religious values, and psychological consequences. From the OR figures concluded that young males are 3.2 times more at risk of consuming drugs than young females. From the aspect of family function, it can be inferred that the percentage of young substance abusers from families who apply religious values is greater than those who do not. The findings of this research show that the risk of young people from families who practice religious functions becoming substance abusers are 1.61 times more compared to families who do not practice it. The understanding of drugs is not always related to teenagers' behavior in consuming drugs, because those who understand the psychological consequences of substance abuse are also 1.64 times more at risk of using drugs compared to teenagers who do not understand.
THE USAGE OF STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING (SEM) METHOD IN HYPERTENSION OCCURRING AT ACHMAD MOCHTAR HOSPITAL BUKITTINGGI Abdi Iswahyudi Yasril; Wijayantono Wijayantono
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan (Journal of Biometrics and Population) Vol. 11 No. 02 (2022): JURNAL BIOMETRIKA DAN KEPENDUDUKAN
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jbk.v11i02.2022.134-144

Abstract

Hypertension or high blood pressure has many factors, the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) method is able to analyze the multivariable and find out the direct and indirect effects in a model of the relationship among variables. The purpose of this research to determine the use of structural equation modeling methods (SEM) to assess the factors affecting hypertension in Achmad Mochtar Bukittinggi Hospital. This research is an observational analytic study with a cross-sectional design study. The research sample is 151 respondents at Poli Interne Ahmad Mochtar Bukittinggi Hospital. Analysis was with the structural equation modeling (SEM) method with a CI 95%. The results showed that of the 5 latent variables only 3 had a direct effect on hypertension, namely blood fat (T-value = 5.806), lifestyle (T-value = 13.505) and disease history (T-value = 2.518). )> 1.96. Meanwhile, demographics (0.530) and obesity (0.163) do not directly affect hypertension but can indirectly affect them. It can be concluded that: Lifestyle is a dominant factor because it can directly and indirectly affect hypertension through obesity, blood fats and disease history. It is expected that the research will be able to determine the problem solving plan of hypertension, because it will be known the model of the factors that influence the incidence of hypertension so that planning can be directed at variables that have a more significant influence" either directly or indirectly.

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