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All Journal Jurnal Riptek Jeinsa : Jurnal Ekonomi Ichsan Sidenreng Rappang "Indonesian Journal of Devotion and Empowerment (IJDE) "
Via Amalia
Universitas Negeri Semarang
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science Social Sciences Transportation Other

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ARIMA AS A TOOL FOR EARLY WARNING OF INFLATION IN INDONESIA: SHORT-TERM FORECASTING AND THE CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC STABILITY Farida Islamiah; Via Amalia; Muh. Qardawi Hamzah
Jurnal Ekonomi Ichsan Sidenreng Rappang Vol 5 No 1 (2026): hal
Publisher : Universitas Ichsan Sidenreng Rappang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61912/jeinsa.v5i1.417

Abstract

Inflation is a key macroeconomic indicator affecting purchasing power, investment decisions, and overall economic stability; therefore, reliable forecasts are essential for proactive policy responses. This study aims to develop a monthly inflation forecasting model for Indonesia while interpreting its implications for economic stability. The data consist of Indonesia’s monthly inflation from January 2003 to April 2026 (280 observations) sourced from Bank Indonesia. The analysis applies the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach using standard steps: stationarity testing, model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking, and forecasting. The results indicate that the series requires first differencing to achieve stationarity, and the most appropriate model based on statistically significant parameters, the lowest Akaike Information Criterion value among valid candidates, and white-noise residual diagnostics is ARIMA (0,1,2). Forecasts for May to December 2026 suggest inflation will fluctuate within a moderate range of 2.12% to 4.50%, peaking in August 2026 at 4.50% and reaching the lowest level in October 2026 at 2.12%. Overall, the projected pattern implies relatively controlled inflation dynamics, providing an early signal that can support price-stabilization policy planning and improve certainty for real-sector production and investment activities.
Digital Empowerment: Efektivitas Program PENA bagi UMKM Perempuan di Semarang Via Amalia; Rusdarti Rusdarti; Inaya Sari Melati; Lola Kurnia Pitaloka
Jurnal Riptek Vol 19, No 2 (2025)
Publisher : Badan Riset dan Inovasi Daerah Kota Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35475/riptek.v19i2.327

Abstract

This study examines the impact of the PENA Program on the digitalization of women-led MSMEs in Semarang City and its implications for empowerment and business sustainability. Using a qualitative approach with thematic analysis as the main method, data were gathered through in-depth interviews with eleven female MSME entrepreneurs participating in the PENA Program.Results show that around 73% of respondents experienced significant improvements in digital adoption, particularly in e-commerce, digital payment, and social media marketing. Three main themes emerged: (1) enhanced digital capabilities through structured mentoring, (2) empowerment through increased visibility and self-confidence, and (3) persistent challenges such as time constraints and limited infrastructure. The PENA Program effectively facilitates access to digital tools and skills development, though adaptation varies depending on digital literacy and social support.Digitalization strengthens womens empowerment by enabling participants to expand markets, manage online sales efficiently, and build entrepreneurial confidence. However, dual gender roles and uneven access to technology remain barriers. The study concludes that improving digital literacy and providing adaptive mentoring are crucial to advancing women-led MSME digital transformation, offering insights for inclusive and sustainable empowerment policies.
Developing Demangan Village’s Tourism Identity: A Support Program for the Menara Kudus Heritage Area Via Amalia; Inaya Sari Melati; Rusdarti
Indonesian Journal of Devotion and Empowerment Vol. 1 No. 1 (2025): Special Issue
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/ijde.v1i1.33324

Abstract

This community service program was carried out to support the development of locally based tourism in Demangan Village, which is strategically located near the Kudus Tower. The initiative focused on assisting the local community in shaping a tourism identity that reflects the village's unique culture and historical heritage. A total of 27 participants, including MSME representatives, community activists, and tourism managers, actively took part in the program. The community engagement process was conducted through an educational and participatory approach, including presentations, group discussions, and village potential mapping. To assess the program’s effectiveness, participants completed a pre-test before the activities began and a post-test afterward. The evaluation showed a significant improvement in participants’ understanding of tourism identity concepts, with an average score increase of 35%. Beyond improved comprehension, participants also expressed a strong commitment to developing a more authentic and compelling tourism narrative. The outcomes of this program are expected to serve as a foundation for sustainable initiatives aimed at positioning Demangan Village as a vital contributor to the cultural tourism image of Kudus. Ongoing mentorship and broader involvement of local stakeholders are identified as the next strategic steps toward realizing a competitive tourism village rooted in local identity.
Co-Authors Farida Islamiah Inaya Sari Melati Melati, Inaya Sari Muh. Qardawi Hamzah Pitaloka, Lola Kurnia Rusdarti - Rusdarti Rusdarti